CHINA'S STRATEGIC DILEMMAS ON MILITARY INVASION OF TAIWAN -PERSPECTIVES 2024

China's military invasion of Taiwan for forcible re-unification with Communist Mainland China been viewed by strategic analysts as 'inevitable' moreso after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Admittedly, China has the intentions and the military capabilities which it has been building-up for more than a decade now. China however so far has not translated its intentions into reality. China has indulged into saber-rattling and brinkmanship to coerce Taiwan into submission.

China has visibly stopped short of an outright military invasion of Taiwan reflecting China's "Strategic Dilemmas" holding it back.

China's dilemmas range from global geopolitical reaction, US likely intervention, economic costs to China, Taiwan's formidable terrain configuration, and Tiwan's will to resist a Chinese military invasion with full- fledged offensive defense preparations.

Global geopolitical reactions will be heavily weighted against China, especially in the heavily polarized IndoPacific. China could ignore this at its peril.

United States likely military intervention in event of China's military invasion of Taiwan is a virtual certainty, irrespective of political dispensation in power in Washington. Unlike Ukraine, the United States has vital security stakes in Taiwan continuing as a linchpin in US First Line of Defense in Western Pacific.

China's economy is already sluggish and the costs of a military invasion of Taiwan, economic sanctions on China that will accrue thereafter, and considerable devastation that China could itself suffer, are serious imponderables which cannot be easily surmountable by China.

China could inflict massive destruction on Taiwan. by use of its ballistic missiles and use of air-power. But, for military invasion and occupation of Taiwan, a massive Chinese military amphibious operation would be required across the wide Taiwan Straits. 

A Chinese military amphibious operation would have to run the gauntlet of a mix of potent Taiwanese missiles and air-power counterstrikes, and military counterstrikes of possible US military intervention.

Added to the above is the force-multiplier effect of Taiwan's rugged rocky coastline abounding with multiple layers of obstacles designed to impede Chinese amphibious operations against Taiwan. 

Taiwan's will to resist Chinas' overlordship is best manifested by continued voting into power of Taiwanese Presidents opposed to China.

Perspectival analysis of China's strategic dilemmas in 2024 indicate that China will not attempt an outright military invasion of Taiwan in the near future. China's strategic readings of the major dilemmas sketched above would impede China from a hasty and impulsive invasion of Taiwan.

Concluding, one would however observe that like Russia's ill-fated invasion of Ukraine, similarly, Communist "Chinese 21st Century Emperor" President Xi Jinping could be tempted for doing so impelled by a misreading of United States resolve in defending Taiwan.

 

CHINA'IS INTENTIONS IN UNPRECEDENTED EXTOLLING OF EMERGENCE OF INDIA AS A MAJOR POWER UNDER PM MODI

 China's State organ in an unprecedented step extolled India's emergence as a 'Major Power' under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi. This has sent global geopolitical analysts in a tizzy as to what are China's underlying intentions behind such an assertion?

Only two deductions can be drawn from China's unsolicited assertion of conceding that India has emerged as a 'Major Power' under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi 2014-24. 

Taking at face value, it can be surmised that China's intentions are "pious" and that China may be interested in resetting China-India bitterly adversarial relations stemming from six decades of unresolved boundary disputes and massive armed confrontation on the Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

At the other end of the spectrum when the China-India contentious and adversarial relationship is contextualized against China's policy of impeding India's rise as a Major Power, then doubts emerge on China's intentions.

Chinas in view of historical pattern of adversarial relations with India leads one to conclude that China's intentions may be devious and divisive.

India's emergence as a Major Power with substantive geopolitical weightage has been made possible by India's diplomatic drives under PM Modi and casting India's tilt towards the United States, the West and Amirian allies in Indo Pacific.

Contrary to India's official assertions that India is adopting Multilateralism as a foreign policy precept, the reality is that India is markedly with the United States and the West, despite occasional irritants in US-India relations.

The above strategic equations and India's expanding presence in the IndoPacific has weighted the 'Balance of Power' in Western Pacific and Southern Pacific against China. 

In the above scenario, China has only two options, namely to cut down India to size by a major conflict on the China-India Borders or secondly, to temporize with India by "Driving a Wedge" between United States and India.

The first option of a major China-India War is unlikely as China would have deciphered after 2020  Galwan Clashes and massive buildup in Ladakh that India under PM Modi is no longer a 'military pushover'. Further, that India has drastically reduced its military asymmetries with China both in terms of force deployments and border infrastructure.

China's second option therefore comes into play and that is to "Drive a Wedge" in US-India Strategic Partnership, which is a low-cost option.

China to drive a wedge in US-India relations can be assessed to operate on two different planes----one on the global geopolitical stage and the other on Inda's own domestic political situation.

The global geopolitical stage offers China many avenues to subtly discomfit India and sow doubts in Indian leadership on the "Value" of India's strategic partnership with the United States.

Briefly, the range of China's attempts could incorporate the reinvigoration of the Russia-India-China Trilateral and pressing the US for a US -China Dyad (Obama vintage) to manage Indo Pacific security which would then raise doubts in minds of Indian policy planners on United States future directions vis-a-vis China and India. 

In India's domestic politics, which are divisive and in which the Opposition is more Leftist inclined, China could use Disinformation Warfare follow a two-pronged strategy.

 China could keep extolling India's emergence as a Major Power but subtly inject in Indian political discourse that PM Modi has achieved it at a political price wherein India's own interests are subjugated to United States larger interest.

India's Opposition would be overready to lap -up the Chinese line and blow it out of proportion for political mileage against PM Modi. 

As it is there exists an intriguing convergence of China, Pakistan & India's major Opposition parties for a 'regime-change' of Modi Government.

Could there be a Russia-China connection in this geopolitical game? This question emerges because only a few weeks earlier, Russian President Putin was also heaping praise on India and PM Modi's leadership.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that if China's aim is divisive to "Drive a Wedge" in US-India Strategic Partnership, then China has a steep uphill task, simply, because a vast majority of Indians 'See more value' in India's partnership with the United States than China.

China at all levels in India suffers heavily from a "Strategic Trust Deficit" which requires China to concede substantive concessions to India after decades of unremitting aggression and military confrontation.

INDO PACIFIC SECURITY ENVIRONMENT 2023 MAJOR OBSERVATIONS--A STRATEGIC AUDIT

 Indo Pacific Security Environment was turbulent in 2023 and presages an even more tumultuous security environment in 2024 taking off from China's continued propensity to use a mixture of using force to settle land and maritime disputes with its neighbors and political and military coercion.

Since Indo Pacific will continue to be the 'center of gravity' of global geopolitics it is pertinent to carry out a strategic audit and highlight major geopolitical and strategic observations that emerge from 2023 events.

United States is the Predominant Power in Indo Pacific & Globally

Strategic and geopolitical reality glaringly highlights that United States continues with unrivalled predominance in Indo Pacific and globally too.

China's propaganda campaign to the contrary to paint 'United States as a Declining Power' has not received any traction in Indo Pacific or in global geopolitics.

United States Bilateral Security Partnerships in Indo Pacific Stand Reinforced Due to 'China Threat' Perceptions

Asserted in my writings and in my book on China was the singular observation that China handed 'on a platter' to the United States what American diplomats could not achieve for decades.

This was a highly polarized Indo Pacific against China, as a consequence of China's predatory forays on its peripheries. The China Threat is palpably felt in Indo Pacific.

The wide expanse of Indo Pacific extending from South Korea, Japan, Philippines and India have close-knit bilateral security ties with United States and can be stated as heavily polarized against China.

The Philippines after courting China for decades has returned to United States obit.

ASEAN fence-sitters like Indonesia and Malaysia too are resetting their strategic postures.

Superimposing over and above this web of bilateral security ties in Indo Pacific, the United States has forged multilateral groupings like QUAD and AUKUS. both implicitly aimed at checkmating China.

China Despite Exponential Massing of Military Power has 'NoNatural Allies' in Indo Pacific Except North Korea and Pakistan

This stark reality stands reflected in my writings for more than a decade. This reality persisted in 2023 and likely to persist in 2024.

  North Korea in 2023 has gravitated towards Russia in 2023 and Pakistan displays trends of promiscuity by trying to balance the Chinese 'Colonial Hold' over Pakistan by trying to reinvent its strategic utility to United States.

Russia is not a 'Natural Ally' of China. The Russia-China Nexus is a 'Compulsive Strategic Marriage of Geopolitical Convenience'. Strains are visible.

China Inevitably Headed for Intense Military Confrontation with the United States

In 2001, I had predicted that China is headed towards 'Cold War 2.0' confrontation with United States. The Indo Pacific security environment has evolved so, and the manifestations of same were intense in 2023.

Chinese- aided North Korea nuclear provocations against South Korea and Japan, maritime disputes with Japan and Philippines, South China Sea disputes with Philippines and Vietnam, and China's intense military confrontations on India's borders with China Occupied Tibet, are explosive tinderboxes.

China continues to threaten 'Military Invasion of Taiwan' emboldened by Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This could be the tipping-point in China-US military confrontations.

 China's Image in IndoPacific---" Disrptionist Power Intent on Destabilizing Indo Pacific Security"

In the 'Battle of Perceptions' China has lost heavily. China is widely perceived in Indo Pacific as a "Disruptionist Power Intent on Desatbilizing Indo Pacific Security".

China's uninterrupted pattern of military adventurism against its neighbors in this Century with scant regard to international conventions has contributed to this image.

China being not a 'Responsible Stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security' is a widely held geopolitical perception.

The United States needs to pay heed to this dictum in its policy approaches on China.

India Rises as Powerful Player in Indo Pacific During 2014-23

India has risen in the period under PM Modi as a powerful player in Indo Pacific security. 

India's burgeoning economy, its reduction of asymmetrical differentials of military power with China, its audacious confronting China in Eastern Ladakh Galwan clashes, its reinforcing bilateral military ties in Indo Pacific and its intense military ties with United States, short of a military alliance, has awakened Indo Pacific to India's growing geopolitical power in Indo Pacific and even in Middle East.

In QUAD, India is the 'Pivotal Power' next to United States, in terms of Military Power, Nuclear Weapons, Space Programs and a credible Missiles Arsenal.

United States restructuring its 'US Pacific Command' to 'US Indo Pacific Command' is a meaningful manifestation of India's rise during 202-23.

Concluding Obserations

In geopolitics and strategy 'Perceptions" determine Major Powers regional and global standing and credibility.

Therefore, in 2023, China has lost the 'Battle of Perceptions' against the United States as the major observations briefly pointed out above indicate.

In Indo Pacific despite China's campaign to paint United States as a 'Power in Decline'. the United States to the contrary, has maintained its predominance in IndoPacific and globally too.

China despite its vast dazzling military arsenal has been unable to dislodge United States from its doorsteps in Western Pacific.

China's strategic vulnerabilities are glaringly widening, and its sluggish economy has domestic stability implications. Faint signs of a power struggle against President Xi Jinping are visible also.

India is emerging as a' Power of Substance' and contrastingly to China, also with added image of a 'Responsible Stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security'.

 India could well be on the trajectory of emerging as 'Major Global Power' should PM Modi be voted back to power for a 'Third Term' as analysts predict.

Overall, it can be summed up that in the Indo Pacific, the 'Balance of Power' continues to be held by the United States, its Allies, and its Strategic Partners.

China will not be able to establish its hegemony over Asia and nor will Asian capitals "accept" a US-China Dyad for Indo Pacific security which China is pushing for encouraged by spasmodic US political outreaches, more recently seen at APEC Summit of US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

ASEAN AS SOUTHEAST ASIA REGIONAL GROUPING AT STRATEGIC CROSSROADS ON CHINA--ASSERT OR LOSE CENTRALITY

ASEAN as a regional organization of Southeast Nations stands in2023 at strategic crossroads wherein its dithering and dichotomous stands on 'China Threat' threatens "ASEAN Centrality" in Indo Pacific Security geopolitical dynamics and so also its own vibrancy as a regional economic grouping with security underpinnings.

Geopolitically, wherein IndoPacific Region has already acquired bipolar overtones, ASEAN cannot pretend that it should not be forced to take sides in the ongoing power tussle between a belligerent China and US-led 'Coalition of Democracies.

China under President Xi Jinping on switching to muscular 'Hard Power' approaches on its peripheries targeted ASEAN Nations Vietnam and Philippines as its targets for aggression and military occupation of Vietnamese and Filipino islands in South China Sea.

China's aggression against ASEAN member nations instead of united outright condemnation by ASEAN as the regional grouping was muted and impassive emboldening China to continue its aggressive brinkmanship in South China Sea where in addition to Vietnam and Philippines, the Muslim nations of ASEAN, namely, Indonesia and Malaysia whose littorals in South China Sea are now being threatened by Chinese expanding c claims in South China Sea.

Can Indonesia and Malaysia now similarly threatened by China not change their ambiguous policies on China Threat, and as major Nations of ASEAN take a 'United ASEAN Stand' to oppose Chia's depredations in South China Sea?

China stood emboldened by lack of unity within ASEAN in opposing China and exploited the divisions. Major Muslim ASEAN Nations, Indonesia and Malaysia chose to 'sit on the fence' till recently when China impinged on their sovereignty by extending China's arbitrary 'Nine Dash Line' in the South China Sea.

China brazenly defied the Hague Tribunal Award in favor of Philippines declaring Chinese claims on South China Sea as invalid. China also adopted dilatory tactics in agreeing to a common Code of Conduct in South China Sea pursued by ASEAN Nations to prevent conflict.

ASEAN Nations despite notable geopolitical and strategic changes in Western Pacific like US-led QUAD and AUKUS and reinforcing of bilateral security cooperation of countries opposed to unbridled China Threat manifestations have still chosen to remain impassive on China.

Persistently analyzed in strategic community is that ASEAN Nations do not want to be forced to take sides in the inevitability of a looming US-China conflict.

ASEAN Nations do not seem to have come out with any strong condemnations of China's recent military "bullying" of the Philippines in South China Sea. 

China is smarting under Philippines intensified security relationships with the United States and India. India recently contracted to supply three batteries of its BEAHMOS Cruise Missiles to Philippines.

ASEAN as a Southeast Asia Regional Grouping with implicit regional security underpinnings is at strategic crossroads on China. The moot question that arises is whether ASEAN Nations can put up a 'United Front' against China's aggression selectively applied against individual ASEAN Nations.

In Conclusion, simple language, the strategic choice facing ASEAN in 2023 as a regional grouping is: "ASSERT ON CHINA THREAT or LOSE ASEAN'S CENTRALTY" in global geopolitics, Indo Pacific security dynamics and its internal cohesion as a Southeast Asia Regional Grouping.

UNITED STATES 2023 IMPERATIVES TO DISPENSE WITH "STRTEGIC AMBIGUITY" ON TAIWAN'S FORCEFUL ANNEXTAION BY COMMUNIST CHINA

The Indo Pacific security environment in 2023 stands unprecedently threatened by the persistent propensity of Chinese President Xi Jinping to generate strategic turbulence emanating from the exponential rise in China's military arsenal. 

President Xi's propensity for provocative armed conflicts on China's peripheries commenced with establishing 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over South China Sea during 2013-2022 and thereafter undisguised threats of 'Military Reunification of Taiwan with Mainland'.

The year 2023 has been marked with high-voltage political and military coercion by Xi's China spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine notwithstanding United States implicit policy of military strengthening of Taiwan's capacity to defend itself against Communist Chinese aggression.

Chinese President Xi's brazen threats of military annexation of Taiwan stem from the "Strategic Ambiguity" policies on Taiwan that United States adopted ever since President Nixon under misguided prodding of his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who "Mortgaged US Security Interests to China" hoping to de-link China from Former Soviet Union.

United States such impulses resulted in Taiwan Relations Act (April 1979) whose end result was United States breaking of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and scrapping the 25-year-old US-Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty which was a US Shield for Taiwan against Communist China thus far.

Fast forward to 2023, despite China's open 'Taiwan Invasion Threats' the United States has not displayed any indicators in adopting "Dissuasion and Compellance" strategies to impose deterrence on China's aggressive impulses on Taiwan.

United States problem in this direction lies on American reluctance to dispense with its 'Strategic Ambiguity' on Taiwan. 

In 2023, the looming China Threat in Indo Pacific palpably felt from South Korea to India and more intensely focused on Taiwan springs strategic imperatives for United States to manifest "Strategic Clarity" in terms of its firm intentions to militarily intervene in event of Communist China's military invasion of Taiwan.

US President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken have recently made the right noises in this direction, but these are not enough to deter China and China's 21st Century Emperor.

The US self-imposed restraints in Taiwan Relations Act have outlived their strategic utility. These restraints are no longer valid as China has not reciprocated US hopes of Cross-Strait's security and stability of Taiwan's security.

On the contrary, China stands further emboldened by these self-imposed US restraints shackles.  

The United States needs three forceful steps in this direction, namely, (1) Renounce US "One China Policy; (2) Establish Full Diplomatic Relations with Taiwan (3) Sign a US-Taiwan Mutual Security Treaty forthwith.

Concluding, the above steps will not only deter China from Taiwan's Military Invasion but also galvanize Indo Pacific Nations more solidly to back US-led Indo Pacific Security Template "assured" of United States determination to checkmate the all-encompassing China Theat.

"Strategic Ambiguity" is a weapon of less powerful Nations as a policy ploy and therefore does not behoove the United States as the only globally powerful Nation.