Indian PM Narendra Modi's unique stature in global diplomacy coupled with India's image in last ten years as a responsible stakeholder in global security, has enabled India to gain headway over China's early initiatives for peace in Ukraine.
Comparatively, China is not perceived as an 'Honest Broker' to achieve a breakthrough in Ukraine peace initiatives, simply because of its Russia-China Axis linkages, and due to Western perceptions that China due to strategic reasons is prolonging the Russian Invasion of Ukraine by underwriting it with military and logistics supplies.
India on the other hand, despite its perceived proximity to Russia, more today due to cheap oil supplies, does not carry the same baggage as China does.
Further, India's Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with United States, European Majors (NATO Allies) and US Allies in Pacific induces two sets of strategic confidences in India.
The first, India's above linkages, dispels the notion that India is sold out to Russia.
Secondly, India's policy pronouncements by PM Modi on Russian soil that war is no longer an option in modern era and that peace can be achieved through dialogue and diplomacy, has added farther credibility of India being perceived as an 'Honest Broker' in mediating peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Contextually, therefore, it was logical for Ukraine President Zelensky to assert during PM Modi's path-breaking visit to Ukraine in August 2024 that India should "host" the Second Ukraine Peace Conference in New Delhi.
India's 'Ukraine Peace Offensive' evidenced by Indian PM Modi's historic visit to Ukraine, some six weeks after his meeting with Russian President Putin in Moscow, and the post-Ukraine visit telephonic discussions with US President Biden and Russian President Putin, highlights that India is in unique position to facilitate positive 'Face-to- Face' Meet between Russian President Putin and Ukraine President Zelensky in New Delhi.
Indian PM Modi's 'Peace Offensive' has generated approvals from the United States, European capitals yearning for peace in Europe and finds resonance in Russia.
China is the only exception reflected in Global Times that China viewed Indian efforts as unlikely to yield positive results.
With Russia bogged down in a stalemate in its Ukraine Invasion and Ukraine Forces in a counter-offensive conquering nearly 450 sq km Russia Territory, war-weariness seems to be taking over Russia.
Ukraine devastated by wanton and reckless Russian bombings of its cities and infrastructure would also be yearning for peace to return and begin reconstruction of the nation.
The 'Ukraine Peace Offensive' by India surely would be a daunting task in terms of reconciling conflicting demands of Russia and Ukraine. But then, the first small but sure, steps taken by PM Modi could pave the way for peace, with both Russian President Putin and Ukraine President Zelensky reposing faith in India and PM Modi.
With widespread yearning forthcoming for the 'Peace Offensive' one can be optimistic that Indian PM would be able with his mediation skills and global stature be able to mediate a workable end to the Ukraine War.
The geopolitical and strategic spinoffs for India in the event of its successful outcome of its 'Ukraine Peace Offensive' are many. The notable ones are stated in brief below.
Geopolitically, India would be increasingly perceived under PM Modi as a responsible stakeholder in global peace and stability, capable of "Bridging Divides" in global fault-lines.
Geopolitically, India would be able to neutralize much of the false narratives on India generated by China and some segments of Western media.
Geopolitically, India would have a stronger imprint in both Western Europe and Eastern Europe.
Geopolitically, arising from the above, would be a reinforcing of India's pivotal stature in Indo Pacific security.
Strategically, the most significant spinoff for India would be that an end to the Ukraine War would possibly end China's strategic indispensability in Russia's calculations that emerged post-Ukraine War.
Russia's over-dependance on China has been a worrying factor for Indian policy establishment in terms of Russian attitudes in event of a China-India armed conflict. Weaning away Russia from over-dependance on China, which could not be achieved by Indian diplomacy, now could possibly be achieved by Ukraine Peace Offensive.
In terms of Indian defence equipment needs, Ukraine with improved relations with India, opens up an alternative source other than Russia. As it is Ukraine is the main supplier of gas turbines for Indian Navy warships. Ukraine during the Soviet era was the main powerhouse of Russian defence equipment production.
Concluding, that while peace is an elusive commodity in case of intractable armed conflicts, and especially where Global Majors are directly or indirectly involved, war -weariness does set-in when stalemates start overtaking. That is the tipping-point for peace offensives.
Contextually, India is well-placed to work that much harder on its Ukraine Peace Offensive, however intractable. If India succeeds, a Nobel Peace Prize would be a just reward for Indian PM Modi.
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