INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : IRAN'S GRAVE MILITARY MISCALCULATION IN SECOND ESCALATED DIRECT STRIKE ON ISRAEL: ESCALATION DOMINANCE OR RECKLESS STRATEGIC MADNESS?

Thursday, October 3, 2024

IRAN'S GRAVE MILITARY MISCALCULATION IN SECOND ESCALATED DIRECT STRIKE ON ISRAEL: ESCALATION DOMINANCE OR RECKLESS STRATEGIC MADNESS?

Iran's traditional reputation as adept chess-players nosedived on October 1, 2024, as Iran opted for a Second Direct Attack on Israel after April 2024, within hours of Russian Prime Minister's rushed visit to Teheran for meetings with Iranian President, in what can be analyzed as Iranian attempts to achieve 'Escalation Dominance' or sheer reckless strategic madness?

Global and Indian media did not join the dots of Russian PM's rushed visit to Teheran (First ever by Russian PM) for meetings with Iranian President on October 1, 2024. Within hours of this meeting, Iran launched its Second Direct Attack on Israel.

Curious strategic coincidence? Was the Russian PM's visit to Iran to advise strategic restraint or was it a Russian 'Green Signal' to go ahead with Escalated Ballistic Missiles with over 180 Ballistic Missiles against Israel?

If the latter, then Israel has to factor-in Russian support for Iran's attempts for 'Escalation Dominance' against Israel. One has to await further for this to play it out.

Meanwhile, what needs analysis is, irrespective of Russian factor, Iran's gravest mistake in ascending the 'Escalation Cycle' regardless of geopolitical, strategic, military and economic consequences of its reckless decision by escalating its Second Direct Attack on Israel with Ballistic Missile and Hypersonic Missiles.

Israel PM has asserted that Iran will pay a heavy and painful price for the Second Direct Attack on Israel. But the timing and dimensions of Israel's retaliation will be of Israel's choosing.

With both Iran and Israel competing for 'Escalation Dominance' it would be pertinent to analyze whether Iran has really in effect achieved' Escalation Dominance' 'over Israel in this 'Escalation Cycle".

Iran's illusionary 'Escalation Dominance' post-Second Direct Attack rests on two false notions: (1) United States would restrain Israel from immediate retaliatory strikes in view of impending US Presidential Elections on November 5 (2) Iran's demonstrated "Saturation" of Israel's Air Dence network by Ballistic/Hypersonic Missiles would deter Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran has pushed the 'Escalation Envelope' a bit too far as now within United States both Republicans and Democratic presidential candidates have hardened positions on checkmating Iran.

Incumbent US President Biden has cautioned Israel only to restrict Israel retaliatory Stikes from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities and further that Israel strikes be 'proportionate'. This is a noticeable change in US stance from 'Reactive" To "Proactive"

By the above US token, Israel is freed to strike back at Iran comprehensively barring attacks on Iran's nuclear sites. Even that stipulation may fade away after US presidential elections. 'Proportionate' resort also implies attacks on Teheran's proximate military bases.

The second Iranian miscalculation rests on fallacy that Iran has been able to 'Impose Deterrence' on Israel by piercing Israeli multi-layered Air Defence Shield.

Israel has proven in past Wars, twice at least, that it has the military resilience to turn the tables on its supposedly military adverses inflicted by its enemies. Surely, Israel will plug-in the deficiencies noticed in Iranian attacks.

Israel can also be expected to strike back at Iran substantially even in the next four weeks notwithstanding US presidential elections on November 5. United States would have no option but to actively support Israel.

Concluding, it can be safely asserted that Iran, by any stretch of imagination, has not achieved 'Escalation Dominance' over Israel by its Second Direct Attack by Ballistic/Hypersonic Missiles.

Iran has thereby opened further wide the 'floodgates' of direct attacks on itself by Israel with now "Proactive" support of United States. United States stances have now moved away from "Reactive" stances on the Israel-Iran War.

Russian support to Iran, if any, would be severely limited by its Ukraine War. Geopolitically, Russia is on a sticky wicket.

Overall, it can be summed-up that Iran has embarked on a reckless strategy, more impulsive than geostrategically calibrated, disregarding the geopolitical context.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister