The United States is now in the second week of its invasion of Iran in concert with Israel, in a war which President Trump asserted was his personal decision.
President Trump's invasion f Iran has led to violent counter-retaliatory strikes by Iran against US Bases, US facilities all over the Middle East and on Israel.
Iran has widened the scope of its counterretaliation this time by attacking military targets and petrocomplexes of US Allies in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.
The intensity and expanded area of war have been covered in 24/7 TV coverage and with that as backdrop, one can now move to offer perspectives on the critical issue of what impelled United States to invade Iran?
Geopolitical and Middle East security environment analysis in recent past, preceding US invasion of Iran, analytically suggests that this US invasion was impelled not as a "War of Necessity" but as a "War of Choice" of President Trump.
Iran invasion by United States ordered by President Trump to be classified as a "War of Necessity" should have rested on strong indicators, geopolitical and miliary, of an imminent threat to security of United Sates and Israel, especially nuclear.
Global strategic analysis suggests that there was no such imminent nuclear weapons threat. Last year, Iran's nuclear sites were subjected to US & Israeli nuclear strikes after which it was claimed that the strikes were successful in putting back Iran's nuclear weapons acquisitions by two years.
The global nuclear watchdog agency IAEA has declared in the last few days that there is no evidence of Iran being close to a nuclear weapon test.
Iran's nuclear threat has been overplayed by the United States in a copybook replay of the Gulf War of Iraq on similar lines.
Hence, the Iran invasion by the United States does not qualify as a "War of Necessity". It seems more of a "War of Choice"
The invasion of Iran in initial stages seemed to have been premised on 'Regime Change' and liquidation of Iran's existential nuclear threat and that with decapacitation of the spiritual and military leadership would generate mass upsurge in Iran leading to an instant collapse of the Iranian State.
United States and Isreal were successful in assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei and his advisory council in well planned massive bombing complex of his residential complex in Teheran.
This in its wake has led to (1) Iran unleashing its full fury of missiles, rockets and drones swarm attacks on US Bases and its neighbors allied to United States (2) Iran has blocked the Hormuz Strait (3) No regime change upsurge has taken place in Iran,
Perceptionally, the United States during the last seven days has been forced to change the goalposts of its end-aims. It seems that the United States had 'Under-estimated' Iran's counterretaliation, its intensity, and Iran widening the area and scope of conflict.
United States "War of Choice" in invading Iran seems headed to a protracted War in the Middle East. Even if United States were to prevail over Iran, global economic stability has seriously been disrupted, and the Middle East sands portend to be bloodier.
After seven days of 24/7 airstrikes by United States and Israel, the major conclusions on the success of United States and Israel, can be surmised as follows (1) United States has not succeeded in generating a 'Regime Change' in Iran (2) Iran's nuclear complexes and infrastructures have not been obliterated (3) Iran's counterreatliatory strikes capabilities have not been significantly degraded.
Iran in the last seven days has demonstrated that (1) Iran's counterretaliation capabilities continue to be strong (2) Iran has succeeded in widening the area and scope of war by continuing missiles and drone attacks on US Allies of the Gulf (3) Iran domestically has not thrown up any visible evidence of mass public upsurge for Regime Change of existing political and spiritual order.
In terms of future perspectives, it can be safely asserted that the US-Iran War will not end in Unconditional Surrender by Iran as publicly demanded by President Trump.
The US-Iran War now seems to be settling down in the mould of two opposing strategies of the main protagonists, involving a race against time.
The United States is racing against time hoping that its 24/7 massive airstrikes and bombing of Iran would force Iran into an 'Unconditional Surrender'.
Iran seems to have adopted the strategy of 'Wearing Down' the United States by withstanding its bombings, and in tandem inflicting missiles/ drone attacks on US Allies in The Gulf, forcing them to build pressures on United States to seek an 'Honorable Exit' to preempt collapse of monarchial Gulf States and the collapse of their 'Petrodollars Economies'.
Concluding, the major conclusion that emerges, is that the United States 'War of Choice' in invading Iran, seems to be headed towards a 'Messy Endgame' like all previous such US Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The United States should have learnt lessons from Russian Invasion of Ukraine wherein Russia with such massive bombings could not make Ukraine "Surrender" to Russian dictates in the last four years.
Iran is not going to be an easy walkover for United States like Venezuela. Iran could end up as a "Ukraine" for United States.
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