CHINA-CENTRIC SECURITY COALITIONS OVERSHADOW INDO PACIFIC ECONOMIC ORGANISATIONS

 In 2021, in the wake of the 'China Threat' being escalated to explosive levels by Communist China under leadership of President Xi Jinping , geopolitical and geostrategic churning in its wake has been marked by the overshadowing of existing Indo Pacific economic organisations like APEC and EAS  by security coalitions like The QUAD  and AUKUS.

In the first two decades of 21st Century, the United States as the Global Superpower with high stakes in Indo Pacific security and stability vainly hoped that Communist China would adapt itself to emerge as a benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific security and stability.

But the Communist Rulers in Beijing emboldened by United States reluctance to checkmate Communist China's exponential military buildup and misperceived notions that the 'China Card' was still operative in Beijing's favor embarked on military confrontations from Japan, Taiwan, South China Sea to Eastern Ladakh.

The United States belatedly realized that Communist China had no inclinations to contribute to Indo Pacific security except on Communist China's terms. Beijing with its military aggression in South China Sea signaled to United States that Communist China was not only intent on challenging United States predominance in the Western Pacific but also had intentions to contend with the United States to emerge as the 'Second Pole' in global power-play.

In quick succession, the United States reinforced the US-India Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, reinforced its Alliance linkages with South Korea and Japan and revived The QUAD, extricated itself from Afghanistan and established AUKUS--bringing into existence a Trilateral of three nuclear powered submarines nations.

In tandem, other security linkages that stand reinforced are the Japan-India Strategic Partnership, India-Australia Strategic Partnership, United States outreach to Vietnam and Japan engaged in military capacity buildup of the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Significantly, as asserted by me in an analysis in Eurasia Review, was the prospects of ASEAN Redundancy spurred by Indo Pacific security and geopolitical churning. ASEAN an economic grouping has shirked from condemnation of Communist China even when Beijing forcibly annexed Island Territories in South China Sea of Vietnam and Philippines--both ASEAN Nations.

Some may like to argue that this is debatable but it is my firm belief that Indo Pacific with increasing military belligerence of Communist China would not offer geopolitical space for 'Fence Sitters' or proponents of 'Strategic Non-Alignment'.

Concluding, it needs to be reminded that history is witness to the fact that whenever Revisionist Powers like Communist China emerge on the global stage the natural and logical culmination is the emergence of 'Security Coalitions'  which with increased military escalation graduate to 'Military Alliances'.