INDIA AND THE PHILIPPINES ENHANCE SECURITY COOPERATION 2021 IN INDO PACIFIC SECURITY CONSTRUCT

 India took a significant leap in March 2021 when it decided to enhance security cooperation with The Philippines whose archipelago strategic configuration covers virtually the entire Eastern flank of the South China Sea and which is being subjected to constant maritime aggression by Beijing's Communist China Regime.

The Philippines has had a salience all along in the United States security architecture for the Western Pacific. Except for a short period when the Philippines succumbed to Chinese overtures, United States Navy had a major naval base at Subic Bay and a sizable US Air Force presence at Clarkes Air Base.

The Philippines after a brief dalliance with Communist China soon realized that China became only more aggressive in terms of occupation of Philippines islands/shoals. Communist China was encouraged to do so because it realized that during this period the Philippines had temporarily lost United States strategic gaze.

India's according a centrality to ASEAN Nations and India's increasing security cooperation with ASEAN Nations like Vietnam , Indonesia and Singapore encouraged the Philippines to look to India for security cooperation.

Also, both India and the Philippines had a shared history of territorial disputes with Communist China and China's propensity to settle territorial disputes by resort to unprovoke use of Chinese military force.

India and the Philippines signed a Government-to-Government Deal in March 2021 under which India agreed to supply the Philippines with five batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles for its coastal defence.

In addition, Philippines and India agreed to enhance security cooperation in various other fields, especially in terms of Naval Cooperation, Coast Guard Cooperation, joint training and access to more Indian Defence equipment purchases.

India' ties with Philippines stood relegated to the backwaters until 2014. PM Narendra Modi was the first Indian PM to visit the Philippines in 32 years.

Giving concrete shape to India's 'Look East Policy' with substantive security-oriented contours as 'Act East Policy'. with particular reference to South East Asia countries palpably under threat by China, the Modi Government has given impetus to enhance security ties with the Philippines. 

The strategic significance of enhanced security cooperation would have not been lost on Beijing's Communist China regime.

The Philippines acquisition of Indian BRAHMOS Cruise Missile with a range of 290 km would impart some degree of conventional deterrence against China's persistent maritime encroachments against the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Finally, in the overall construct of Indo Pacific Security this significant enhancement of security cooperation with yet another strategically significant ASEAN Nation would add to India's image as being a serious   of Regional Nett Security. 

UNITED STATES & CHINA'S RECORD ON SECURITY IN INDO PACIFIC COMPARATIVELY ANALYSED

Ever since the end of the Second World War in 1945 with United States overwhelming victory over Japan and the emergence of Communist China in October 1950 as a Communist dictatorship in the then Asia Pacific, this Region has been characterised by strategic turbulence generated by Communist China unceasingly from the 20th Century and persisting as the second decade of the 21st Century draws to a close.

The question that begs an answer against the above backdrop is as to why the conflictual propensities of China have not watered down with passage of time of nearly 70 years? Why is that China after having embraced modernisation and globalisation facilitated by the United States generous impulses to ease China into the global system as a responsible stakeholder in regional security still persists with its aggressive impulses against China's neighbours with scant respect for international laws and conventions as is being seen in South China Sea against Vietnam sharing Communism ideology affinity with China?

Simply, the answer is that China is a "Revisionist State" which has a national agenda and blueprint to change the power and security structures in then Asia Pacific and now the enlarged Indo Pacific Region.

China perceives that the Western Pacific on whose littoral Mainland China resides is China's own backyard and wishes to transform all the 'Seas' from East Chin Sea to the South China Sea as one enlarged 'Inland China Sea' and that the United States is the interloper in the Region.

However, ironically for China, the nations in Western Pacific from South Korea, to Japan and the Philippines fearful of China imposing its writ of a 'China-Centric' geopolitical order and security system repose their trust in the United States and perceive that in the ultimate analysis the United Sates is the sole guarantor of their national security and the Indo Pacific Regional Security.

This then brings us to a brief comparative analysis of the demonstrated records of United States and China in the maintenance of peace and security in the Indo Pacific Region.

The analytical comparison is starkly against China and perceived as such in Asian capitals. China is perceived as the "Regional Destabiliser" intent on overturning the existent geopolitical and security template in the Indo Pacific and the harbinger of conflict, instability and Indo Pacific "Disorder" with attendant disruptive uncertainties.

The United States is perceived as the "Nett Guarantor of Regional Security" reinforced by United States challenging China's repetitive propensities for armed conflict commencing with the Korean War, through the Vietnam War and now China's aggression and brinkmanship in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits.

More importantly, the United States generously assisted war-ravaged economies of Japan and South Korea to emerge as 'Asian Tigers' with high economic rates of growth and with democratic political systems. Even China's stupendous economic growth rates would not have taken place without US FDIs and high technology inputs.

In terms of future perspectives two crucial questions emerge contextually. Firstly, will the United States commitments to Indo Pacific Region continue steadfastly into the coming encodes? Secondly, can China be expected to emerge in the coming decades as a responsible and benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security?

Taking the second question first, as United States policy formulations are wholly dependent on China restraining its historical imperialistic impulses, the answer is a big NO. China's national impulses contradictorily intersect with any moves to emerge as a responsible stakeholder in the Indo Pacific

China is convinced that the United States stands as the 'bulwark' restraining China from imposing its own China-Centric geopolitical and security order in Indo Pacific and thwarting the 'Great China Dream' of Chinese Preside Xi Jinping who after capturing all the instruments of State Power in China, political and military, has further secured 'For Life' the office of China's President.

China under President Xi Jinping will obstinately stick to his 'Great China Dream' whose advent was marked by China switching from strategies of 'Soft Power' to 'Hard Power' manifested by intensified aggressive brinkmanship.

China will try all conceivable strategies to prompt a 'US Military Exit' from Western Pacific by inducing 'domestic political fatigue' in United States by China's disruptive 'Salami Slicing Strategies'.

Regrettably for China, the Indo Pacific geopolitical landscape today is characterised by 'Intense Polarisation' against China due to its aggressive brinkmanship and intentions to carry out a 'Revisionist Transformation' in the Indo Pacific.

Written by me elsewhere for years that China itself is to blame for this sorry and adverse image of China. What US diplomacy could not achieve for 50 years China handed the Asian polarisation on a plate to the United States.

In my assessment, the United States is hardly unlikely to endanger the 'Outer Western Pacific Defense Perimeter' of Mainland United States resting on nations of Western Pacific allied to the United States. Even the Philippines as a prodigal son is returning to the US-fold.

 Strategic imperatives of US National Security will ensure that the United States remains firmly embedded in the Indo Pacific.

United States transforming the US Pacific Command to 'Indo Pacific Command' under US President Trump reflects United States enlarged and intensified commitments to Indo Pacific Security stiffened by revised US threat perceptions that China cannot change and will continue as a 'Threat" to US Security and the security of its Allies and Strategic Partners like India.

Succeeding US Presidents can be expected not to lower the thresholds of US National Security against a militaristic China.

INDO PACIFIC REGION-THE GATHERING CONFLICTUAL STORM MID 2020

The United States would not be far wrong in perceptively viewing the China-originated and China-suppression of information on the Wuhan Virus 2019 outbreak resulting in nearly 70,000 US citizens dead and US economy losing trillions of dollars as akin to the Japanese Pearl Harbour attack on United States leading to United States opening its biggest World War II offensives in Asia Pacific.


Strategic analysts like me were anticipating that with the rapid strides being made by China in Cyber Warfare that should conflict breakout between United States and China a temptation would emerge for China to launch Cyber Warfare Pearl Harbour-type attack on the United States.


What has emerged in the wake of the global breakout of the Wuhan Virus 2019 Pandemic where circumstantial evidence points out that China by suppressing crucial information on the outbreak of Wuhan Virus 219 breakout has opened itself to accusations of deliberate suppression of information on the Pandemic outbreak with ulterior motives. Nor has China as recompense offered any apologies for the Pandemic outbreak as an inadvertent occurrence.

For the last few weeks both US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Pompeo have articulated assertions pointing accusing fingers at China on the lines outlined above. This should be considered as a ‘Tipping Point” in US-China relations and also for the security and stability of the Indo Pacific Region.

On May 4 2020 TV media reports indicate that a Five Nation Joint Intelligence Report has asserted that the Wuhan Virus 19 originated from China’s Virological Establishments located at Wuhan. US President Trump has warned China that China will have to account and pay for the losses suffered by United States and other countries in Europe and Asia.  


This has led to China being strongly critical of US President Trump and the US Establishment in some unprecedented Chinese hostile rhetoric never witnessed earlier in history of US-China relations.


The Indo Pacific Region stood already beset by conflictual overtones due to China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea against her weaker ASEAN neighbours and the hotly contested US-China Trade Wars.

Noticeable too in May 2020 is that while the United States stood preoccupied by managing the heavy losses in US lives and the ravaging impact on US economy arising from the Wuhan Virus 19 Pandemic, China instead of restraint and prudence has lately revived its political and military coercive aggression in the South China Sea against the Philippines, Vietnam and further adding to its list Malaysia and Indonesia.


Contextually, China today is being accused in the Indo Pacific Region of trying to exploit the strategic vacuum in the Western Pacific at the expense of the United States and its Allies and Strategic Partners. Contextually read it amounts to China relentlessly pursuing its strategy of controlled escalation against the United States.


Regrettably, in earlier US-China conflict-prone confrontations, leeway would exist for both the United States and China to resile from their extreme positions, the situation in mid-2020 is qualitatively different.


This time what has emerged as noticeably different is that in the United States bipartisan political support exists for United States to adopt Hard Line policies on China and domestic public opinion is also likewise. In China domestic dissent has emerged and with slowing economy this would gather pace resulting in brutal suppression by the Chinese President.


No leeways seem to hover over the horizon to suggest that the United States would let go of its ‘Hard Line’ approaches on China  on the question of accountability for the Wuhan Virus 2019 outbreak and nor has China till this moment exhibited any indicators of exit from its present ‘Hard Power’ strategies in the Indo Pacific Region.


In mid-May 2020, the strategic portents are that with had line postures of United States and China further solidifying in months to come a strategic conflictual storm is certainly gathering over the Indo Pacific Region.