US PRESIDSENT TRUMP SETS NEW PRECEDENT: GLOBAL GOVERNANCE BY COERCION

US President Trump in his second tenure as President has set up a new precedent of global governance by "Coercion"---political, economic, military, and escalation coercion.

The above is a marked deviation from the pattern of global governance strategies followed by past US Presidents ever since 1945. Past US Presidents strategies rested on retaining relatively a high moral ground with the use of military force as a last resort.

President Trump's signature strategy of global governance has been a mix of threats, coercion and escalation coercion with an added mix of 'changing goalposts' on earlier threats.

This latest US strategy coupled with unpredictability has played havoc on global stability.

Political Coercion

The above has been evident as a precursor in all confrontations in which US has been embroiled under President Trump from Venezuela to Greenland and Iran.

But the biggest impact of political coercion has been on NATO which so far has been the cornerstone of US policy since the early 1950s. President Trump and his senior Cabinet officials have been cajoling and unsparingly critical of its European partners.

This has not gone down well and may spell the demise of NATO.

Economic Coercion

The year 2025 was a bad one for global economic stability with President Trump going on an unrestrained spree f imposing "TARIFFS WAR" on all countries-----allies, friends and foes. 

TARIIFS were used as an instrument to coerce countries to submit to US dictates with escalatory threats where countries dithered.

The direct result of this ill-advised strategy has been a serious pushback all over the world. BRICS is working on de-dollarization, and China has initiated similar steps.

Military Coercion

Venezuela stands out as the prime example of US military coercion with Trump using Special Forces and a mini invasion to bring about a regime change.

The Venezuela success possibly led to Trump embarking on US misadventure of invasion of Iran.

Escalation Coercion

This is a new theme akin to Tariffs Escalation of Iran Invasion. followed by Trump and visible in case of the Iran Invasion.

It seems that escalation coercion was scripted as pre-planned process of the escalatory ladder. But this strategy has not worked as Iran escalated its counter-retaliation in the Gulf Region indirect proportion to US escalation.

Concluding Observations

Global governance by coercion as a strategy practised by President Trump has not worked to US advantage. simply, because it has bruised nations all over the world.

Except for Venezuela where regime change could be ensured, Iran has not capitulated to all forms of coercion in the US DICTIONARY. This is a signal failure.

In the above process, US global predominance image stands dented.

The moot question that now arises is whether the new pattern of global governance by coercion would persist after President Trump is gone and whether the United States would revert to past strategy?

In all probability, the United States would revert back to the past strategy. If for nothing else but the sheer pressure of unfolding global pressures. 

UNITED STATES MILITARY DISTRCTION IN IRAN INVASION CREATES STRATEGIC VACUUM IN WESTERN PACIFIC

History seems to be repeating itself as, yet another US President involves the United States in a War of Choice of military intervention in the Middle East generating a strategic vacuum in the Asia Pacific.

This time it is President Trump who is engaged in the invasion of Iran distracting US strategic focus on the Asia Pacific in which domain lies the biggest of and most potent threats to US security.

Last time it was President George W Bush who got involved in Gulf War II in Iraq with Afghanistan still simmering, in the first decade of this Century.

China exploited the ensuing vacuum in the Western Pacific to replacing its brown water navy with a blue water navy. China also initiated the program of converting shoals and reefs into artificial islands.

China could achieve full s spectrum dominance in the South China Sea along with exponential expansion and modernization of its Armed Forces.

United States was in no position to checkmate China as it stood distracted in Iraq and Afganistan.The overall impact was a diminution of American power in Western Pacific.

The full impact of US current distraction in Middle East is yet to unfold militarily but the geopolitical impact is already there in terms of grater strategic bonds between China and Rusia.

This will have a great impact on United States and its power equations in the Western Pacific.

US PRSIDENT TRUMP's WAR ON IRAN- THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

Contextual Observations

 The American War on Iran launched by US President Trump on February 28, 2026, in collusion with Israel, is entering the fifth week. What was intended as a blitzkrieg one week war is likely to last longer.

Iran has displayed a remarkable resilience not only to endure devastating airstrikes but also its counterretaliation offensive intentions and capacities in not only to strike US Bases in The Gulf and West Asia but also US Monarchial Allies in The Gulf.

Noticeable targeting by both warring sides is petrochemical complexes and gas facilities which have a direct impact on global oil prices.

Contextually, this War without provocation, ordered by President Trump has unleashed in its wake "Unintended Geopolitical, Strategic, Military and far-reaching economic consequences.

Major consequences are briefly covered below.

United States Global Predominance - The Limits of US Military Power

The fact that Iran after four decades of "sanctions" and geopolitical isolation could hold-off combined 'epic fury' attacks illustrates the "Limits of American Military Power". 

Geopolitically, Iran stands backed by Russia, China and North Korea--all nuclear weapons powers. Military aid pipelines to Iran from them are said to be functional.

United States does not have the military power to cut off these pipelines.

United States Image as Guarantor of Regional Security Stands Diminished

This War has diminished greatly the image of the United States as regional 'Guarantor' of Regional Security' with specific reference to the The Gulf's Monarchial Kingdoms.

The United States, it seems, neither warned these Allies of US invasion of Iran and neither provided them initially with air defence equipment with reference to missiles interception.

Reports indicate that this has created disquiet in these Nations.

The above will have cascading effect in Asia Pacific region.

NATO Alliance Distances Itself from United States Iran Invasion

NATO except for its Secretary General has distanced itself from partaking in the US Invasion of Iran.

The above has created fissures in the Alliance so much so that President Trump stung by this response harshly criticized TATO. 

This is not new as President Trump and his advisors have indulged in name-calling 0f NATO in his earlier stint and present term too.

NATO could be in terminal decline.

Global Economic Turbulence and DE dollarization  

 Reacting to President Trump's earlier 'Tariffs War' which plunged global economies in a downward spiral, American Invasion has   created a havoc in oil prices. 

Economic aspects of the above will be far-reaching. 

With de-dollarization moves in offing, one can foresee the beginning of the end of US economic preponderance.

Implications for India-One Liners

India will have to reset its Strategic Partnership with the US.

US is no longer a Credible Countervailing Power against China.

 QUADS no longer an imperative for India.

Indian foreign policy of 'MULTIALIGNMENT' VALIDATED.

Concluding Observations

Strategic logic if adhered would have dictated that United States would not have stirred a hornet's nest as Iran was a major regional power predominating its neighbors in size, population, resources, and with a sizeable military arsenal.

United States power centers seem to have relied more on mathematical formulas of relative strengths than on decoding Iran's intentions.

 

UNITED STATES-IRAN WAR 2026 IN ITS THIRD WEEK: A STRATEGIC AUDIT

The United States War launched on Iran was a "War of Choice" and not as a "War of Necessity" was discussed in my last post. The War has entered its third week with no concrete indicators of d of any possibilities of deescalation by United States or "Surrender" by Iran as demanded by US President Trump.

The respective strategies of United States and Iran were laid out also in the last post. The War its third week contrary to United States strategic calculations and estimates would have ended in a week going by the massive air strikes and bombardment of Iran by United States and Israeli predominant air power.

United States Strategic Balance Sheet

In the third week ongoing, the United States along with Israel air power have inflicted massive damage on Iran's military infrastructure, missile launching pads and nuclear installations.

The above has not contributed to United States 'end-aim' of 'unconditional surrender' as articulated by the US President Trump.

In the third week of this War, reports now indicate that the United States has ordered move of US Mrine Expeditionary Forces to The Gulf. This signals that the United States is now being forced to commit 'Boots on the Ground' to subdue Iran.

In tangent, the United States has not been able to reopen the Hormuz Straits, whose freedom of navigation is critical for global energy requirements and economies. In fact, the United States has shied away from breaking the Iranian Naval Blockade pleading that NATO and other Nations must join in a coalition.

Iran's Strategic Balance Sheet

Iran's strategy was based on 'national survival' and in tandem expanding the Area of Conflict and its scope. 

In the third week, Iran shows no signs of internal political collapse despite the top spiritual and military hierarchy being decimated by Israeli pinpointed precision strikes.

Iran has launched retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf Monarchies hosting American Bases in the Gulf. This has generated a piquant situation for United States in that US Security Shield to the oil-rich Gulf Monarchies is perceptionally "leaky" d may nudge the Gulf Monarchies to 'reset' their relations with United States.

In the third week, Iran has succeeded in matching American and Israeli invasion of Iran by inflicting equally devastating damage to Gulf Economies, US Economy, and Global Economies by closure of Hormuz Straits.

Iran launching two IRBMs at US BAase in Diego Garcia 4000 km away speaks volumes of Iran to escalate the War and also its IRBM capabilities.

The Role of United States, Israeli and Iranian Intelligence

A 'Strategic Audit' would be incomplete without comments of the intelligence apparatus and capabilities of the three main actors in this War.

Going by the precise hits on Iranian dignitaries by pinpointed strikes, Israelis intelligence outshines the rest. Years of painstaking surveillance both by electronic means and human intelligence made this possible.

American intelligence though rich in electronic apparatus had the advantage of use of Pakistan territory for launching clandestine US CIA operations deep within Ian.

Iran had to rely solely on Rusia for military intelligence of US military deployments. However, Iran has the advantage 'sleeper cells' in the predominant Shia population of the Gulf States. 

Predictive and Estimative Intelligence f the United States: Underestimated Iran's Resolve to Counterretaliation

United States falls short when it comes to accurate Predictive and Estimative Intelligence on Iran's strategic culture and resolve for counterretaliation.

Presumably this emerges from overconfidence and cultural insensitivity.

Rift in United States Intelligence Hierarchy

Two events need to be noted here.

The resignation of National Counterterrorism Director, Kent who resigned on grounds of disagreement on the Invasion of Iran and also the escalation.

He was a favorite of President Trump.

National Intelligence Chief Tulsi Gabbard in testimony before the Congress panel stated that the decision to launch the Invasion was that of therein President Trump . The Agency only provided intelligence and was not involved in the decision-making

Final Observations

Escalation by both sides inherently carries the possibility of President Trump's resort to disproportionate force to force Iran to surrender, to cut short the timelines of War.

While resorting to the above, President Trump should not forget the lessons of the Vietnam War wherein President Johnson ordered the Tet Offensive faced with similar situation.

The resolve of Viet Cong Forces when forced into a corner was prolonged the War and subsequent ignonimous American withdrawal from Saigon, Vietnam.

 

 

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US PRESIDENT TRUMP IVASION OF IRAN: "WAR OF NECESSITY" OR "WAR OF CHOICE"-PERSPECTIVES

 The United States is now in the second week of its invasion of Iran in concert with Israel, in a war which President Trump asserted was his personal decision.

President Trump's invasion f Iran has led to violent counter-retaliatory strikes by Iran against US Bases, US facilities all over the Middle East and on Israel.

Iran has widened the scope of its counterretaliation this time by attacking military targets and petrocomplexes of US Allies in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.

The intensity and expanded area of war have been covered in 24/7 TV coverage and with that as backdrop, one can now move to offer perspectives on the critical issue of what impelled United States to invade Iran? 

Geopolitical and Middle East security environment analysis in recent past, preceding US invasion of Iran, analytically suggests that this US invasion was impelled not as a "War of Necessity" but as a "War of Choice" of President Trump.

Iran invasion by United States ordered by President Trump to be classified as a "War of Necessity" should have rested on strong indicators, geopolitical and miliary, of an imminent threat to security of United Sates and Israel, especially nuclear.

Global strategic analysis suggests that there was no such imminent nuclear weapons threat. Last year, Iran's nuclear sites were subjected to US & Israeli nuclear strikes after which it was claimed that the strikes were successful in putting back Iran's nuclear weapons acquisitions by two years.

The global nuclear watchdog agency IAEA has declared in the last few days that there is no evidence of Iran being close to a nuclear weapon test.

 Iran's nuclear threat has been overplayed by the United States in a copybook replay of the Gulf War of Iraq on similar lines.

Hence, the Iran invasion by the United States does not qualify as a "War of Necessity". It seems more of a "War of Choice"

The invasion of Iran in initial stages seemed to have been premised on 'Regime Change' and liquidation of Iran's existential nuclear threat and that with decapacitation of the spiritual and military leadership would generate mass upsurge in Iran leading to an instant collapse of the Iranian State.

United States and Isreal were successful in assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei and his advisory council in well planned massive bombing complex of his residential complex in Teheran.

This in its wake has led to (1) Iran unleashing its full fury of missiles, rockets and drones swarm attacks on US Bases and its neighbors allied to United States (2) Iran has blocked the Hormuz Strait (3) No regime change upsurge has taken place in Iran,

Perceptionally, the United States during the last seven days has been forced to change the goalposts of its end-aims. It seems that the United States had 'Under-estimated' Iran's counterretaliation, its intensity, and Iran widening the area and scope of conflict.

United States "War of Choice" in invading Iran seems headed to a protracted War in the Middle East. Even if United States were to prevail over Iran, global economic stability has seriously been disrupted, and the Middle East sands portend to be bloodier.  

After seven days of 24/7 airstrikes by United States and Israel, the major conclusions on the success of United States and Israel, can be surmised as follows (1) United States has not succeeded in generating a 'Regime Change' in Iran (2) Iran's nuclear complexes and infrastructures have not been obliterated (3) Iran's counterreatliatory strikes capabilities have not been significantly degraded.

Iran in the last seven days has demonstrated that (1) Iran's counterretaliation capabilities continue to be strong (2) Iran has succeeded in widening the area and scope of war by continuing missiles and drone attacks on US Allies of the Gulf (3) Iran domestically has not thrown up any visible evidence of mass public upsurge for Regime Change of existing political and spiritual order.

In terms of future perspectives, it can be safely asserted that the US-Iran War will not end in Unconditional Surrender by Iran as publicly demanded by President Trump.

The US-Iran War now seems to be settling down in the mould of two opposing strategies of the main protagonists, involving a race against time.

The United States is racing against time hoping that its 24/7 massive airstrikes and bombing of Iran would force Iran into an 'Unconditional Surrender'.

Iran seems to have adopted the strategy of 'Wearing Down' the United States by withstanding its bombings, and in tandem inflicting missiles/ drone attacks on US Allies in The Gulf, forcing them to build pressures on United States to seek an 'Honorable Exit' to preempt collapse of monarchial Gulf States and the collapse of their 'Petrodollars Economies'.

Concluding, the major conclusion that emerges, is that the United States 'War of Choice' in invading Iran, seems to be headed towards a 'Messy Endgame' like all previous such US Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The United States should have learnt lessons from Russian Invasion of Ukraine wherein Russia with such massive bombings could not make Ukraine "Surrender" to Russian dictates in the last four years.

Iran is not going to be an easy walkover for United States like Venezuela. Iran could end up as a "Ukraine" for United States.