UNITED STATES TRUMP 2.0 REVERTS TO 'CHINA-HEDGING' AND 'RISK-AVERSION' POLICY TO OFFSET GROWING GEOPOLITICAL ISOLATION

In marked contrast to US President Trump 2.0 imperious postures in 2025 across the global geopolitical landscape, what singularly stands out is Trump 2.0 virtual appeasement of China by totally reversing Trump 1.0 (2016-20) 'Hard Line' strategy.

United States under President Trump 2.0 seemingly fearful of China's retaliatory economic and massive military power, seems in 2025-26 to have reverted to older versions of US-Strategy of "China-Hedging' and 'Risk Aversion'.

President Trump 2.0 gave early notice of his inclination of change of China-policy during his bid for second-term election campaign.

Retrospectively, analyzing after corelating it with Trump 2.0 postures, one could surmise that Trump 1.0 China-postures were the 'China-bullying' phase. That China with its 'brinkmanship propensities' stood its ground in the Trade Wars drove home to Trump that China was not ready to take bullying strategies by Trump.

China was well prepared and ready with contingency plans to deal with a belligerent Trump 2.o unlike other Major Powers who had not tasted Trump 1.0 Trade Wars.

Geopolitically, in January 2025, when President Trump began his second term, the challenges facing the United States emerged more diverse and complex. 

In Europe, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was ongoing in its third year, more intense and devastating.

 China without putting 'boots on the ground' was heavily subsidizing Russia's Ukraine Offensives militarily and economically.

The Middle East abounded with military conflicts. The chief of which and most inflammable being Iran which the United States could not suppress. Israel was besieged by Iranian military proxy armed militias from Houthis disrupting the Red Sea to Hamas and Hezbollah besieging Israel.

Russia and China were strong supporters of Iran with both having separate Mutual Security Agreements with Iran. Iran's military inventories are of Russian and Chinese origin, besides sizeable indigenous defence production infrastructure.              

In effect, a Russia-Iran-China Axis was being perceived in Middle East operating against the United States and Israel.

China had outclassed the American unquestioned predominance in the Pacific by attaining full-spectrum dominance over the South China Sea and placing the United States on uninterrupted strategic tenterhooks with prospects of Taiwan Invasion----a nightmare for United States credibility as a credible nett provider n of security in the Pacific.

 The United States in 2026 is faced by a Russia-China-North Korea Axis in the Western Pacific, singly and jointly, are in military confrontation with the United States and all three are Nuclear Weapons Powers with Missiles Arsenals capable of hitting the United States.

China figuring intensely against United States security interests and influence from Europe to Middle East to Pacific, seems to have weighed heavily in forcing President Trump 2.o to apply 'Reverse Gears' to Trump 1.o ' Hard Line' Strategy against China. 

 President Trump in the run-up to his second term as President seems to have awoken to the fact that the United States could not defeat China with its massive economic and military resources.

The United States lack of economic or military compellance power over China thus prompted President Trump to induce and enlist China along with the United States in a "G-2" Global Security Management setup.

This G2 Concept earlier proposed by President Obama around 20025-08 did not take off. Revived by President Trump in late 2025, this time too it will fail.

United States in 2026 is in virtual adversarial confrontation with its Allies and Strategic Partners due to President Trump's unpredictable geopolitics and Tariffs Terrorism.

United States growing estrangement in 2026 with virtually the whole world has positioned China to raise its brinkmanship hackles against the United States.

China had declared plans to reunify Taiwan with China Mainland by 2027. This is where China would escalate brinkmanship to peak levels, even war itself.

President Trump is unlikely to defend Taiwan militarily, should China resort to war.

 President Trump aware of United States war-waging limitations in 2026, and minus unqualified geopolitical and military support from its erstwhile Allies, will take the easy "exit route" of adopting 'China Hedging' and 'Risk Aversion' policy to avoid a direct US-China War.

CHINA'S 2026 IMPERATIVES TO CUTOFF STRATEGIC LIFE-SUPPORT TO PAKISTAN ARMY CEASING TO BE A CHINA-ASSET

China ever since the Sino-Indian War 1962 has consistently provided incessant strategic life-support to Pakistan Army which effectively controls and dictates Pakistan's foreign and defence policies. The Chinese aim was to build-up a Chinese 'Proxy' for 'Containment of India' in South Asia.

Pakistan Army despite its emphasis on "Iron Brother" ties with China has spasmodically gravitated towards United States strategic orbit. It pivoted back to China when the transactional ties with United States stood frayed.

 The two major US Military Interventions in Afghanistan and US exit from Afghanistan are glaring examples.

This time around from May 2025 with advent of President Trump 22.0 regime in Washington coinciding with Pakistan's 'Strategic Humiliation' by India in OP SINDOOR in May 2025, and consequent Pakistan's disillusionment with Chinese military inventories made Pakistan Army Chief, now Chief of Defence Forces to strategically repivot towards United States.

Unlike past pivots of Pakistan Army Chiefs towards United States, the events in US-Pakistan from May2025 onwards indicate that while still attempting to keep balanced relations with China, Pakistan Defence Forces Field Marshal Munir now with unprecedented powers over Pakistan's political and security directions has decided to firmly place Pakistan in the American strategic orbit.

Noticeably, General Munir was elevated to rank of Field Marshal soon after Pakistan's crushing military humiliation by India. General Munir is to be held squarely responsible for this defeat.

Analytically, what emerges is that the United States pressurized Pakistan for elevation of General Munir to Field Marshal with unparallel political powers to position at apex level of Pakistan decision-making, a pliable Pakistan Defence Chief to serve American national interests in the region.

The fact that Munir has made three visits to Washington since May 2025 including a Lunch at White House specifically for him vividly illustrates how President Trump has strategically ensnared Pakistan Defence Chief.

Pakistan's strategic moves since May 2025 of inducing Defence Chief Munir needs no repetition. Increased geopolitical and military cooperation and aid by Trump 2.0 has spiraled. retrieving American hold

Brief analysis of President Trump 2.0 reversing gears in South Asian policies can be attributed to Trump Administration likely use of Pakistan as a springboard for inevitable US military invasion of Iran and retrieving hold over Afghanistan's Major Airbases like Bagram and "Neutralizing China's Stranglehold" over Pakistan.

To military minds it should be evident that the very strategic investments that China made in Pakistan to outflank its 'Malacca Dilemma' in terms of Karakoram Highway and Gwadur Port and its Airbase can in reveres be used by United States (courtesy Pakistan Defence Forces) to launch US military interventions against China's hold on Tibet and Xiangjiang--- rich is strategic minerals.

China must seriously deliberate over these unfolding American security challenges unfolding and amplified by Defence Chief Munir offering President Trump leases for prospecting strategic minerals in Baluchistan with added incentive of United States to develop Pasini seaport alongside Gwadur.

Wit such moves as outlined above, China should visualize the emerging picture that Pakistan Defence Chief intends supplanting China with United States in Baluchistan where China has made billions of dollars investments in CPEC Corridor linking China with Gwadur Port. China has already pulled up Pakistan recently for tardy implementation of these projects.

China should now see Pakistan Defence Chief diluting its Chinese military origin inventories with American and Turkish military hardware.

Pakistan Defence Chief's continued imprisonment of Former Pakistan PM Imran Khan and his brutalization, flouting Judiciary relief for him, needs to be viewed By China as inimical to China's interests. Public memory has to be reminded that PM Imran Khan was strongly pro-China and his 'Regime Change' was facilitated by the 'Deep State' setup both in Pakistan and United States.

Geopolitically, it would be wise for China to cut its losses in strategic over-investments in Pakistan. The very rationale of China's strategic life-support to Pakistan Army of proxy 'India Containment' stands knocked out after May 2025 OP SINDOOR, cumulatively heaped after 1965, 1971 and 1999 Pakistan miliary defeats by India. 

Finally, the major strategic deduction for China is that Pakistan is no longer "China's Strategic Asset" but now evolving as United States' "Cats Paw' to make China's Southern Belly as strategically vulnerable.

INDIA'S 'MODI DOCTRINE' OF MULTIALIGNMENT FOREIGN POLICY WILL BE NEW FLAVOUR OF GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS 2025

 India's Modi Doctrine foreign policy with its defining characteristic of "Multi-alignment" is emerging as the new flavor of global multipolar geopolitics in 2025 as Nations grapple with the geopolitical turbulence generated by U President Trump 2.0 unpredictable and impulsive policies.

Modi Doctrine has actively evolved since 2014 when PM Narendra Modi -led BJP Government came into power. The goalposts were laid to deal for India to navigate the onset of multipolarity in global geopolitics.

Modi Doctrine of Multi-Alignment should not be confused with Former PM Nehru's Non- Alignment. Doctrine. Non-Alignment was a passive policy responding to global geopolitics. It failed to secure geopolitical weight for India nor economic benefits.

Modi Doctrine represents 'redoubled efforts to cultivate diverse network of partnerships. This strategy has enabled India to balance relations with Russia, Cina and the United States while diversifying partnerships to navigate an increasingly volatile world order'.

Elsewhere Modi Doctrine of Multi-alignment is defined as 'A pragmatic issue-based foreign policy strategy moving beyond Cold War Non-Alignment, to build diverse, parallel partnerships with multiple   global powers and blocs to maximize national interests, economic opportunities, and security, without formal exclusive alliances, allowing flexible responses'.

Multi-Alignment of Modi Doctrine is a proactive foreign policy strategy which in 2025 has added considerable geopolitical weightage to India and assisted India in securing the third largest global economy position. India in 2025 thus now cannot be ignored in global power calculus.

The Modi Doctrine does not focus on India as a swing state but on India emerging as a Major Power in the global power calculus.

The proof of this assertion is that today all the global Major Powers comprising United States, Russia and China are moulding transformative foreign policy approaches to India's new strategy. European Powers now view Indian policies independently of United States perspectives.

China too is adopting more conciliatory postures from outright hostility convinced after Dokalam 2018 and moreso Galwan Clash 2021 that India was no longer a 'strategic pushover' of Non-Alignment era.

As far as the Global South is concerned, India is increasingly looked upon as the preferred and natural leader.

In 2025, with Europe and NATO being sidelined by United States under President Trump in his second presidency along with Western Pacific long-standing Allies like Japan and South Korea, it is logical that all these Major Nations would see merit in the Modi Doctrine of "Multi-alignment."

Noticeably, it is apparent to all these Major Allies of the United States, is that like India it is possible and beneficial to maintain "balanced relationships" with the Major Powers without being typecasted into opposing blocs. Bandwidth then becomes available to keep National Interests foremost without subsuming them to the perspectives of the predominant partner.

Concluding, it would not be an over-statement to assert that India's foreign policy thrust of "Multi-alignment enshrined in the Modi Doctrine e will increasingly find favor and flavor as the preferred geopolitical choice in a multipolar world beset with unpredictability at every corner. 

INDIA'S CHINA POLICY SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY INDIAN NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS AND NOT TIED TO UNITED STATES COAT-TAILS

 Perceptionally, India's China-policy in the last 25 years emerges as tied to United States coattails in terms of 'China Threat' perceptions. India after OP SINDOOR decisive Pakistan military victory over Pakistan, (notwithstanding Pakistan's nuclear overhang), India needs to reset its China-policy reflecting its new military stature and economic might.

Notably, while China was aiding Pakistan with real-time operational intelligence during this War, China did not repeat its traditional propensity to issue military warning ultimatums to India in favor of Pakistan in distress.

Significantly, the 'China Threat' will "persist" in Indian threat perceptions, till resolution of the boundary dispute and China's reset of its Pakistan-policy. What has changed in 2025 is the new context added by India's military and economic rise.

Let it be highlighted initially itself is that India's military and economic rise have resulted from India's own inherent strengths and robust national security policies of the BJP-led PM Narendra Modi Government since 2014.

Ever since 2014, PM Modi has relentlessly pursued the strategy of significant increase of India's 'WAR PREPAREDNESS' and crafting a resurgent Indian economy. The results in 2025 are that India today is both a global geopolitical heavyweight and an economic giant.

China seems to be awakening to this reality.

The United States and Russia as major strategic partners of India 'may have' contributed only marginally to India's rise.

During the past 25 years China resorted to multifaceted attempts to contain India's military and economic rise. But after Dokalam Standoff in 2018 and the Galwan Military Clashes in 2021 Chinese perceptions underwent change, witnessing India's massive military mobilization in Eastern Ladakh.

The final blow to convince China was India's OP SINDOOR crippling strikes on Pakistan incapacitating Pakistan's offensive capabilities within two hours, despite Pakistan's China-origin military inventories. China should now be convinced that India's Regional Power capabilities stood proven.

China's strategic reality check on India in 2025 would indicate to China that its 'India Containment' policies were no longer valid and that China must adapt to "Manage India's Rise".

Contextually, what added more context to China's recent political outreaches to India is a worsening of China-US relations. 

It was China's growing belligerence earlier which pushed India to strategically embrace the United States. Ironically, in 2025, United States patently anti-Indian stances under President Trump 2.0 and his punitive Trade Tariffs against India because of the Russia-connection, will stimulate India to edge closer to normalization of its China-ties.

India's national security interests rest on two foreign policy determinants of national/military security and economic security.

On both of the above counts, India after much investment of strategic capital on United States and its Strategic Partnership, in 2025, faces the stark reality on whether it was worth it?

In terms   of the hovering 'China Threat' India's strategic partnership with United States has not imparted any added 'China Deterrence' in India's favor. United States continues to have misgivings on India's stress on its Strategic Autonomy postures.

In terms of India's economic security, United States trend of punitive tariffs policies on India to arrest India's economic rise and dictate its political preferences has been disappointing and shocking.

O both counts, United States "credibility' as a pivotal Strategic Partner of India has nosedived in 2025. 

India's foreign policy planners must be actively alert to this new reality and recalibrate both its US-policy and its China-policy.

It needs emphasis that United States China-policy has never been anchored or aligned to suit India's National Security interests. Many a times United States China-policy ran counter to India's National Security interests.

There were times when United States strategic convergences were aligned with China's strategy of building Pakistan's nuclear and missiles arsenal against India.

China hopefully by now would have realized its strategic follies to use Pakistan Army as its proxy bulwark against India in the Indian Subcontinent.

 India in 2025, with its current rising trajectories, and with United States having not proved a "Credible Strategic Partner" should strike the trajectory of its China-policy detached from United States' unpredictable China-policy formulations.

It needs to be highlighted from my past writings that the United States in terms of its China-policy operates on two planes. To bolster its Forward Military Presence in Japan and South Korea and to win over to its strategic orbit pivotal partners like India it "plays up and sensationalizes" the 'China Threat'.

When it comes to US-China policy formulations, the 'China Threat' is expediently forgotten or put aside for politically expedient policies, much to disappointment and chagrin of US Allies/Strategic Partners, for short-term transactional gains for United States.

Therefore, United States sermons on the 'China Threat' to India needs to factor-in this aspect when arriving on India perceptions of the 'Chian Threat'.

Concluding, emphasis must be laid on the stark reality that China can no longer indulge in political, military and economic coercion of India and nor of 'India Containment'. India too must recognize that India's strategic partnership with United States is not a strategically validated strong deterrent against China.

Asian stability and global security would be strengthened by China and India seeking strategic convergences and "stop being used by pitting one against the other" to serve United States strategic ends

PAKISTAN-BANGLADESH INTENSIFYING MILITARY TIES: INDIA'S RECOMMENDED COUNTER-STRATEGIES

Bangladesh ever since August 2024 with the ouster of then duly elected PM Sheikh Hasina by planned and calibrated widespread student riots generated by United States 'Deep State' agencies, has rapidly downslided from stable political and economic pro-India Nation to an unstable, volatile, and economically tottering highly Islamic 'Radicalized State'.

The major plank of the Yunus Administration since taking over is to stoke rabid anti-Indian hysteria, giving greater prominence to Islamic Jihadi outfits, encourage greater involvement of Pakistani Jihadi outfits with Bangladeshi counterparts and a significant intensification of military exchanges with Pakistan Army. 

In the runup to Sheikh Hasina's contrived ouster were enough reports that suggested that both United States and China were seeking a 'regime change' in Dhaka.

Nobel Laureate Mohd Yunus, with deep links to US aid-agencies and US NGOs was put in place as Interim Chief Adviser (read PM) to administer the country.

Caretaker PM Yunus has delayed Bangladesh Elections inordinately, presumably, as early elections in Bangladesh does not suit the geopolitical interests of his external political masters.

In the process, Bangladesh under Caretaker PM Yunus has evolved into a highly anti-India State, given wide access to Pakistan Army presence in Bangladesh. In tandem, Bangladesh is buying offensive military hardware from Turkey, yet another State inimical to India.

Hindu minorities are being brutally persecuted and Hindu Temples destroyed. All this under the watch of Nobel Laureate Yunus.

India cannot afford to ignore the geopolitical and military implications of Bangladesh's downslide, especially with growing involvement of Pakistan Army, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Politically unstable Bangladesh is a serious security risk for India's Northeastern States.

Greater security dangers are posed to Indian security by Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI getting added footholds on borders with India's North East States to stoke disruptive operations against India

India must immediately put into place geopolitical, military and economic strategies before Bangladesh assumes "Monstrous Security Threat" proportions jeopardizing the security of India's Sikkim and Arunachal Borders with China. 

Geopolitically, India must make Pakistan's Western Frontiers militarily vulnerable by intensification of India's ties with the Afghan Taliban Government. Fortunately, this is in operation.

'Regime Change' option needs to be kept alive by India should April 2026 Elections throw-up an anti-Indian Government in Bangladesh. India's premier external agency RAW should now focus on more "Offensive Intelligence Operations". 

In tandem, India must work more proximately with Myanmar to "Heat-Up" Bangladesh's Eastern Borders to checkmate Bangladesh's anti-India adventurism.

In both of the above cases, India will run into geopolitical pressures from United States to desist. United States must be firmly told that India is following the American playlist.

Militarily, Interim PM Yunus has been making veiled threats about Siliguri Corridor and the vulnerability of India's North East being at the mercy of Bangladesh.

India needs to clip Bangladesh's wings by planning and military executing the slicing away of Bangladesh's Northernmost Rangpur Division. This lies astride the Siliguri Corridor. Occupation of Rangpur would enable adding considerable width to India's Siliguri Corridor.

Militarily, the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh should be put under sustained Indian military pressure to rein-in Mohd Yunus's adventuristic streaks.

'Economic Coercion' also needs to be applied and planned for with an ultimate economic blockade by land and sea as a final step. India has already stopped transshipment rights of Bangladesh exports through Indian ports.

'Weaponization of Waters' against Bangladesh also needs to be planned for as is being done in case of Pakistan.

In terms of India's Internal Security, strong National Security imperatives exist to divide West Bengal's Northern Districts astride the Siliguri Corridor into a Union Territory by adding the Darjeeling and Kalimpong Divisions to it.

Concluding, if India wants to emerge as the undisputed Reginal Power of the Indian Subcontinent, then India would need to take and show that India will not hesitate to take 'Hard Decisions' to safeguard its legitimate National Security requirements, including not tolerating external powers to create geopolitical instability in India's neighborhood.