INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY DOMINANT PRECEPT IN POLARIZED WORLD 2024 SHOULD BE -"ALLIED BUT NOT ALIGNED"

India's foreign policy cannot operate in a vacuum divorced from global and regional geopolitical environment. The global regional environment is heavily polarized in 2024 between United States & Allies and the two Communist States, Russia and China.

The Indo Pacific geopolitical environment of which India is a pivotal nation reflects the global polarization even more intensely due to Communist China's predatory aggressiveness against all its peripheral neighbors. chiefly, India.

Perceptionaly, India's pattern of strategic partnerships and engagement present an indisputable picture of India being a 'Natural Ally' of the United States and West.

The above is indisputable especially in the case of India's highly institutionalized security mechanisms with the United States which have evolved over two decades. While both United States and India shy away from terming it as China Threat-centric but the reality is that it is so.

In this heavily polarized geopolitical environment, more sharper after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2023 and China consequently raising its military provocations against Taiwan, the confrontations both in Europe and in India Pacific have intensified. 

India's continued 'Strategic Partnership' with Russia is a hangover relict of the heyday of India's Non-Alignment era. This relationship has multiple contradictions when viewed against contextual geopolitical global and regional environment.

Russia is in a 'Military Alliance 'with China but for the name. China figures topmost in India's threat perceptions. Russia is therefore ill-placed to act as India's 'Countervailing Power' against Chinese aggression because of Russia's heavy reliance on China linkages.

Russia also has not displayed any inclination to prevail over China to desist from hostile activities in South Asia inimical to Indian security interests.

Russia's only utility to Indian foreign policy interests is as a source of cheap oil supplies and which utility can be assessed as transactional in nature. With India's reduced reliance on Russian armaments the Russia-India relationship can be at best viewed overall as transactional.

Consequently, the crucial and pertinent question that India's foreign policy planners are posed with is what imperatives exist for India's obsession with a 'multipolar world order' or 'multilateralism' as a foreign policy precept.

Will these two Indian foreign policy precepts be adequate to serve India's national security interests in a heavily polarized geopolitical environment?

What these two foreign policy precepts generate in global geopolitical dynamics is ambiguity on India's strategic directions and postures. 'Strategic Ambiguity' has cost India heavily in the past both strategically and economically.

Should India go down again on that path of Indian foreign policy postulations? 

India in last ten years has projected to the world that it intends to play the role of a Major Power in global affairs. Such a national aspiration cannot be achieved nor sustained by multipolarity or multilateralism.

The above Indian 'National Aspiration' can only best be achieved by grappling with geopolitical challenges with exercise 0f 'Hard Power' in strategic coalitions with Major Powers with which strategic convergences exist on threats to Indian security.

Concluding, in the transient phase of India graduating to grapple with geopolitical challenges based more on 'realpolitik' than idealism, it is recommended that India follow France in terms of the dominant foreign policy precept, namely, "Allied but Not Aligned" so asserted by French President Macron. This should satisfy the present proponents of the current foreign policy postulations.

SOUTH CHINA SEA NEEDS JOINT NAVAL PATROLS BY ASEAN NATIONS

South China Sea has been rendered as an explosive flashpoint in the Indo Pacific more pointedly after the advent of President Xi Jinping to power in Beijing. Under his leadership China significantly switched to 'Hard Power' strategies of a combination of muscular diplomacy and outright military aggression as manifested by China establishing 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea vast maritime expanse.

The South China Sea certainly was not historically a China Inland Sea as now China intends to convert it into. The term South China Sea was more of a geographical expression by Western colonial powers denoting the maritime expanse fractionally lying along China's Southern coastline, but not exclusively confined to the Chinese coastline.

In fact, the South China Sea commencing from Taiwan runs all the way to the Straits of Malacca with ASEAN countries having littorals on it.

Authoritative sources define the South China Sea as: "Geographically, the South China Sea plays a significant role in the geopolitics of the Indo Pacific. The South China Sea is bordered by Brunei, Cambodia,  China, Indonesia,  Malaysia. the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam."

Further, the South China sea is an arm of the Western Pacific Ocean and this vast maritime expanse extending from South of Taiwan to the Straits of Malacca is geopolitically described as "Global Commons" as it is of critical importance not only to the ASEAN littoral countries but to all the Major Powers of the world for strategic and economic reasons.

China with a fractional littoral on South China Sea as compared to ASEAN countries has coveted the South China Sea for strategic reasons to deny United States 'Close-In Military Intervention' should hostilities erupt. China also covets the vast mineral wealth and energy resources in which this Sea abounds.

China also intends that with complete military dominance over the South China Sea it can prevent or impede the military switchover of US Navy Fleets from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean and vice versa. China also intends that with such military dominance it can throttle the 'jugular vein' of staunch US Allies in the Western Pacific like Japan and South Korea.

China has illegally and by force has declared 'Full Sovereignty' over 90% of the South China Sea and established military control in recent years by capturing Vietnamese Islands and Philippines islets. It has also constructed fortified 'artificial islands in the South China Sea.

In 2020 China is in conflict with ASEAN nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei---virtually the whole of ASEAN.

Against this contextual backdrop it becomes incumbent to ask as to why ASEAN as the notable regional grouping in South East Asia of long standing has not taken a united stand against Chinese aggression over the years against most of the ASEAN nations having vital stakes in the South China Sea?

The significant reason for this glaring omission was that China successfully created divides within ASEAN to prevent a 'United Stand' against China  by different inducements. Till recently major ASEAN countries like Indonesia and Malaysia were notable 'Fence-Sitters' in not taking strong positions against China.

In 2020 as China has stamped on the toes of Indonesia and Malaysia also in the South China Sea waters, possibilities now open for ASEAN Nations to adopt strong postures against China's creeping expansion of its footprints in the control of the South China Sea.

The first visible step of ASEAN Nations united resolve is to put into motion "Joint Naval Patrols" of ASEAN Navies in the South China Sea. China needs to be put on notice by ASEAN Nations that individual ASEAN countries are no longer purchasable by China to keep ASEAN divided.

Major Powers Navies are already frequenting the South China Sea by 'Joint Exercises' besides FONOPS by US Navy ships around disputed islands under illegal Chinese occupation and since fortified.

The South China Sea is inevitably headed for a global conflict as China has added too many incendiary overtones to its illegal occupation of ASEAN Nations islands. At some stage the Major Powers will be forced to lift China's illegal sovereignty claims and dominance impeding 'free and unimpeded maritime navigation in the South China Sea

In that eventuality, ASEAN Nations would not have the luxury to be passive spectators in a global conflict over the South China Sea. Strategic prudence dictates that ASEAN Nations "Stand-Up" to China and the best option contextually is to put into operation "Joint Naval Patrols" of ASEAN Navies in the South China Sea.