Overhanging this hostility is the geopolitical rivalries between United States and USSR in Cold War 1.o and now in Cold War 2.0 the power-play between United States & Israel versus Iran & Russia-China Axis in the wider Middle East.
In the above process of Israel-Iran confrontation, Iran has managed to create two armed militarily potent militias, the Hamas & Hezbollah, which have besieged Israel from Palestinian Gaza in the South/West and Hezbollah from Lebanon.
Lately, the Houthis in Yemen can also be added as Iran's military proxies against Israel and the United States.
Notably, even the Superpowers could not create such 'Proxy Armies' as Iran has been able to do to further its strategic aims against Israel.
Fast-forward to 1923-24, (read my post of April 2024) the Israel armed confrontation has escalated to assume strategic contours portending a wider US-Iran Armed Conflict which could have unintended consequences for global and regional security.
In my April 2024 post, it was asserted that Iran by crossing the 'Red Line' of 'Direct Attack' on Israel had "opened the floodgates of similar attacks by Israel on Iran with tacit support of United States & West".
Since April 2024, Israel has steeply climbed the escalation-ladder in retaliation for the unending attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, in the wake of October 07, 2024, horrific attacks on Israel by Hamas.
Israel's escalation is no longer confined to transactional military operations but there now seems to be in my estimation a well-calibrated strategic blueprint to emasculate Iranian Hamas & Hezbollah proxy armies from its very roots to achieve sustainable deterrence against Iran's proxy military militias.
The follow-up of this strategic blueprint is to trap Iran in a wider US-Iran conflict as mentioned in my April 2024 post, so that Iran's imperial Middle East regional power ambitions are neutralized.
Focusing on Israel's immediate aims the contours that emerge are (1) Liquidate Hamas both by infrastructure damage in Gaza, destruction of its war-waging capability and elimination of its top leadership in Gaza (2) Destroy Hezbollah war-waging capability and logistics bases in Lebanon and strike mortal blows on Hezbollah top political and military leadership (3) Psychological warfare in terms of inflicting 'fear psychosis' on host populations residing in Gaza& Lebanon so as to turn them against Hamas & Hezbollah (4) Operationally, after complete neutralization of Hamas & Hezbollah, Israel will then concentrate on cutting-down Houthi Threat to size.
Israel's military drives since April 2024 bear out the above contours. Israel's heavy and widespread devastation of Gaza and Southern Lebanon Hezbollah military bases are eye-openers. So is Israel's reach in Beirut, Lebanon and distant Teheran in Iran, liquidating Hamas & Hezbollah top leadership, indicative of Israel's traditional deep resolve.
Finally, Israel with successful completion of above phases would have achieved its end-aim of clipping Iran's strategic wings of posing daily potent military threats to Israel's security from Hamas & Hezbollah
military threats.
Such a process inherently carries the possibilities of Iran stepping-up 'Direct Attacks' on Israel by massed Missile Attacks reminiscent of the Iran-Iraq War
'War of Cities' of the last Century. These Iranian missile attacks would be to slow down Israel operations against Hamas & Hezbollah.
Should Iran embark on such a reckless step, it would amount to regional escalation and Iran getting trapped into a wider US-Iran Armed Conflict.
Geopolitically, Israel is far too important for United States, Europe and majority of the Major Sunni Arab Nations of the Middle East.
The same cannot be said of Russia-China Axis in support of Iran. Beyond arms supplies to Iran and its proxy armies operating against Israel, and rhetorical support, Russia and China would not risk a major conflict with US in the Middle East, where their options are limited.
No wonder, that both Russia and China have made protestations that Israel and Iran should exercise restraint. The underlying geopolitical reason is that both Russia and China would not' like to see the complete liquidation of Hamas & Hezbollah, since they not only tie down Israel but more importantly strategically distract United States with its 'Iron Clad" security and survival guarantees for Israel's National Survival.
Concluding, it should be apparent that Israel will now not be deterred from climbing-up on the 'Escalation Ladder' to achieve its strategic aim of complete destruction of Hamas & Hezbollah siege on Israel security which would further ensure that Iran's existential to Israel is downgraded, if not fully neutralized.
Isrrael as one noted Israel strategic analyst has asserted has added one more deterrence theory which is "Deterrence by Punishment" with overwhelming military force on its adversaries, beyond bearable limits
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