Tuesday, September 17, 2024

COLD WAR 2.0 ONGOING IN INDO PACIFIC WITNESSES EASTERN NATO AND EASTERN WARSAW PACT TAKING SHAPE

Cold War1.0 which ensued in Europe in the aftermath of Post-World War II spawned the creation of Nort Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 with United States and Western Europe Nations as its members. NATO was forged by the United States and West as collective security response against the Former USSR having established Communist Republics in East Europe.

Warsaw Pact was established five years later in 1954 by USSR and its East European Communist Satellite nations. Warsaw Pact was a matching response to NATO whose founding was attributed to West Germany joining NATO.

Cold War 1.0 lasted from 1945 to 1991when the USSR disintegrated and with East European countries shaking off Russia's yoke, the Warsaw Pact became extinct.

NATO contrastingly survives till today with a double-sized spread now resting on Russia's contracted borders. Its latest members are Sweden and Finland. 

Military rise of China and its propensity to use military force to impose its will on its peripheries in Indo Pacific raised the scepter of an enlarging and escalating "China Threat"   whose tremors are now perceptibly felt beyond Indo Pacific confines.

 NATO Security Vision 1930 takes note of "China Threat" coupling it with the "Russia Threat" to Europe--the Russia-China Axis.

In 2024, Cold War 2.0 is visibly ongoing in Indo Pacific with China as the lead player and Russia post-Ukraine War now actively integrated in collective security exercises with China.

The recent massive China-Russia Joint Military Exercise involving over reported 400 ships & Fighter Aircraft participating in vicinity of Japan was demonstrated to show-off Russia-China Axis military might in war-time scenarios.

Obviously, this Russia-China Axis military response was to counter the US-led and US-crafted bilateral, trilateral and multilateral security groupings that have emerged more sharply since China under incumbent President Xi Jinping switched Chinna's strategies from 'Soft Power' to muscular 'Hard Power', creating multiple flashpoints in Indo Pacific.

Cold War 2.0, reminiscent of Cold War 1.0 in Europe, is now in full swing in Indo Pacific in 2024 which has emerged as a highly "Bipolar Polarized Region'.

Eastern NATO was a concept which kept surfacing from late 1990s is now being actively pursued. Realistically, while Eastern NATO may have not emerged on institutional pattern of NATO, but the US-led security architecture for IndoPacific Security against the "China Threat" is all but in name an Eastern NATO.

Eastern Warsaw Pact also has taken shape in Indo Pacific in wake of Cold War 2.0 when the security linkages of Russia-China-Norh Korea are added. 

Possible candidates as future members of Eastern Warsaw Pact can be assessed as Iran and Pakistan with one or two Central Asian Republics. The China-Pakistan Axis and China-Iran 25years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership are indicators.

Major Concluding observations that need to be made are that (1) Eastern NATO and Eastern Warsaw Pact predominating Indo Pacific security environment, all but as integrated institutionalized structures, is a 'given' (2) Indo Pacific cannot escape the strategic reality of intense military confrontation spawning opposing military alliances arising from bipolar geopolitics as confrontation intensifies (3) Indo Pacific as a highly surcharged explosive bipolar confrontation region would offer no bandwidth for practitioners of neutrality, fence-sitters or multipolarity.

Cold War 1.0 would historically remain as a mere shadow comparatively against Cold War 2.0 more incendiary conflictual flashpoints.  

The "China Threat" in Cold War 2.0 is more unpredictable and potent than what was the Russian Threat to Europe in Cold War1.0.

 





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