INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : UMITED STATES STRATEGICALLY INSENSITIVE POLICIES IN 2024 RENDER INDIA'S EASTERN FLANK VULNERABLE

Sunday, September 8, 2024

UMITED STATES STRATEGICALLY INSENSITIVE POLICIES IN 2024 RENDER INDIA'S EASTERN FLANK VULNERABLE

United States policies destabilizing Bangladesh and Myanmar in closing months of 2024 betray an utter 'Strategic Insensitivity" to India's critical strategic planning and defense postures against the 'China Threat'.

The very fundamentals of US-India Strategic Partnership based on a convergence of strategic perspectives on the 'China Threat' are perceptionally knocked-out by recent US policies moves.

US strategic naivety is ruled out, simply, because surely, the US State Department and Pentagon cannot be oblivious to geopolitical stability of Bangladesh and Myanmar for US national security needs, even if India's strategic sensitivities are overlooked in some US greater power games,

Indian policy establishment needs to question its American counterparts as to US intentions when US current moves betray a curious coincidence with China's power-play to wean away Bangladesh and Myanmar from India's natural political and economic influence.

United States constantly proclaims that India is a 'Pivotal Partner' in Indo Pacific Security. Yet, in 2024 closing months, US flawed policies on Bangladesh and Myanmar, covering India's critical flank in relation to China Threat, have rendered India vulnerable.

United States policy planners in State Department and the Pentagon cannot be so strategically naive as to not to grasp the strategic significance of Bangladesh and Myanmar to India's war-waging capabilities against the China Threat to India's Arunachal Pradesh and India's Northeastern States bordering Northern Myanmar.

Northern Bangladesh abuts deep into India creating a slender thread strip between China's massed troop concentration in Chumbi Valley, noted known as the 'Siliguri Corridor' or 'Chicken's Neck'. India's vital road and rail links traverse this slender strip.

Pro-Chinese Bangladesh can militarily collude with China to exploit Indian vulnerabilities in this marrow strip.

Further, Eastern Bangladesh adjoins a number of sensitive Indian States of Northeast. Pro-China Bangladesh could facilitate intensified Chinese -aided insurgencies against India, going on for decades.

Northern Myanmar critically covers India's Eastern Flank from the China-India-Myanmar Trijunction right down to Southern tips of Indian States of Tripura and Mizoram.

Realistically speaking, China in event of a China-India War could "Turn the Flanks" against India by outflanking India's Arunachal Force Deployments by a forcible drive via a number of laterals available to it in Northern Myanmar. In this scenario China could exert military pressure at multiple points on Myanmar-India borders.

Contextually, therefore, United States' "Destabilization" of Bangladesh and Myanmar multiplies India's military challenges both in Arunachal Pradesh and India's Eastern Flank resting on Myanmar-India borders.

Concluding, it needs to be over-emphasized that should United States policy planners do not initiate "Course-Corrections" in their ongoing flawed policies in Bangladesh and Myanmar, detrimental to Indian security interests, then India has the right to review the very fundamentals of US-India Strategic Partnership, notwithstanding the US rhetoric.

Strategic Partnerships entail a strong component of "Strategi Trust" and taking Strategic Partners into confidence, even if US has "compulsions" to strike convergences with China.

India's strategic sensitivities in relation to combatting China Threat can be ill-ignored by the United States in the evolving geopolitics of Indo Pacific, as it is India that adds "Strategic Ballast" for United States embedment in this conflictual expanse.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister