Monday, September 2, 2024

ASIAN SECURITY 2024: THE IMPACT OF CHINA-GENERATED MILITARY BUILDUPS OF INDIA AND JAPAN

The Asian Security environment presents a grim picture in overall terms with the over-hang of the China Threat generated military buildup arms race induced by China's territorial disputes, on land and sea, with virtually all its 14 neighbors.

India and Japan as two major Asian Powers with territorial disputes with Communist China and contending to share Asian strategic space with China, could not have escaped a military buildup race with China. 

Explosive military flashpoints abound on China's peripheries extending from the Korean Peninsula, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam and India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Asia's maritime expanses extending from Western Pacific, South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, have emerged as confrontation expanses because of China's conflicting claims of sovereignty.

In its wake, to withstand China's belligerent political and military coercive strategies India and Japan, are engaged in a feverish buildup of their military and operational logistics capabilities.

The military buildups of India and Japan impact the overall geopolitical and strategic environment of Asian security with particular reference to Indo Pacific security.

 India and Japan not only add military ballast to the overall US-led security architecture crafted to impose deterrence on China's aggressive impulses but also as Asian Major Powers reinforce the impression that China is not confronted only by external Powers to the Region. 

Perspectives generated by India as a Strategic Partner of USA, and Japan as US Ally,, in relation to the widely perceived China need to be examined as follows: (1) Cold War 2.0 polarization (2) Salience of United States 'Countervailing Power' against China Threat (3) Diminution of China's asymmetrical military predominance over India and Japan (4) Nuclear Weaponization of Japan and South Korea (5) Overall Balance of Power, and (6)Eastern NATO possibility ?

Cold War 2.0 in effect has seamlessly emerged from Cold War 1.o in Indo Pacific with the China Threat replacing the erstwhile Soviet Threat. In 2024, Asian security is marked by intense geopolitical and military polarization with China opposing United States, US Allies and US, 'Stategic Partners'.

Cold War 2.0 in Indo Pacific is more intense than Cold War 1,0 which was Europe-centric. Conflictual flashpoints generated by China are more incendiary and could ignite with unintended consequences.

Salience of United States as "Countervailing Power" against the China Threat has perceptively increased.  Since India and Japan, by themselves could not ward off China's demonstrated aggressive provocations, reliance on United States is strategically logical.

The United States, conversely, has been actively assisting the military buildups of India and Japan, to impose deterrence on China till US military power comes into play. This arises from a dawning realization in United States that China can be confronted only with support by India and Japan.

Military buildup programs of India and Japan, ongoing and in the pipeline, will greatly off-set China's so far asymmetrical military preponderance over these two Asian Powers. 

The 'unsettling effect' of the above is visibly evident when China protests that United States is leading a 'China Containment Strategy' using India and Japan. 

The significant point to note here is that in tandem with their own military buildups, both India and Japan are engaged in military capacity buildups of smaller nations like Philippines and Vietnam, facing Chinese aggression.

Possible nuclear weaponization of Japan and South Korea, so far, has been dissuaded by the United States arising from its earlier China-policy formulations marked by over- sensitivity to Chinese strategic concerns.

With the Russia-China Axis in play in Indo Pacific, with North Korea in tow, (All Nuclear Weapons Powers), the nuclear weapons imbalance could prompt Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear deterrence against the regional nuclear threat.

The 'Overall Military Balance of Power' against China and the manifested China Threat in 2024, rests largely with the United States, buttressed by India's and Japan's sizeable military buildups.

The 'Eastern NATO' precept against the persistent China Threat has gained currency lately with China's persistent belligerence showing no signs of abating.

 India seems to be reluctant to join such military alliances. Presumably, a hangover of Nehruvian Nonalignment policies.

 Japan already has in place strong institutional links with NATO for regular consultations and coordination. Japan is a regular invitee for NATO Summits.

India may shrink from Eastern NATO appellations, but the strategic reality is, that India in 2024, is strongly enmeshed in US security mechanisms and strategic partnerships with US and NATO Nations who are increasingly turning their gaze to Indo Pacific. This is necessitated by China now being perceived as a threat in NATO formulations too.

In China's perceptions, there is already an Eastern NATO in operation with India and Japan as leading Asian Powers being pivotal Powers in United States' Indo Pacific strategy.

Concluding, the brief sketch of the perspectives generated by accelerated military buildups of India and Japan, generated by the unabated China Threat, indicate a significant impact on China. China in 2024 is rattled with these two military buildups ranged against it. 

Consequently, in Indo Pacific Region, India and Japan are no longer perceived as 'Reluctant Powers' to confront the China Threat. In a sense military buildups by India and Japan are 'Game Changers' in the overall power tussle in Asia. 





 

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