Israel has victoriously implemented its strategic blueprint of emasculating the potent threats to Israel's security posed by Iran's two most powerful militia armies, namely Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel thus has liquidated the "Crown Jewels" of Iran's armory of Proxy Armed Militias besieging Israel for decades.
Israel Defense Forces unprecedented for any other military forces have inflicted unsustainable losses on Iran's 'Spearheads" enabled by robust and determined political leadership pursuing a calculated strategic blueprint.
Israel's mortal blow against Iran was the killing of Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah in Beirut in his Command Center in Beirut two days ago by Israeli Air Force precision airstrikes using nearly 80 bunker-busting bombs of 5,000 pounds each.
Pointed out persistently in my writings was that the larger strategic aim of Israel was to "Trap Iran" into a wider Middle East armed conflict with United States. Iranian President has lately also asserted Iran's concerns that it would like not to fall into Israel's "Trap Iran" plan.
Forecasted earlier was that Israel would have no hesitation in scaling the 'Escalation Ladder' and pursue its 'Deterrence by Punishment' strategy of uprooting Hamas and Hezbollah by their very roots.
The roots lie in Teheran and Iran's other sprouts in Yemen Houthis, Iraq and Syria. Israel's next steps in escalation post-September 28, 2024, will be in these directions.
Herein lies Iran's gravest strategic dilemma. Iran by itself has no military option of direct military attacks on Israel, other than by missiles, rockets and drones. Iran's direct attacks on Israel using this option was effectively neutralized by Israel and US & Major Arab Nations interception.
Iran's 'Direct Attack' Ground Forces operations can only take place by IRGC troops using Syrian and Iraq territory. In the past, too, Israel's contingency plans were based on Iran's likelihood of use of Syrian Air Bases for refueling for attacks on Israel and for ferrying troops.
Israel is guarded against such a contingency by US Naval & Air Force deployments in East Mediterranean. Post-September 28 US Forces deployments in East Mediterranean are being increased.
Iran by using such an option risks direct US military intervention and widening it to a US-Iran War, something in which Iran does not want to be trapped.
Contextually, can Iran afford to lose face in the Middle East and in Islamic World by displaying strategic impotence against Israel?
Iran could salvage some credibility by indulging in "Nuclear Saberrattling" but to what effect? Israel too has its Nuclear Arsenal more advanced than Iran's.
Further, any Iranian nuclear threat would decidedly invite US & Allies military intervention to checkmate Iran's recklessness.
In terms of regional Islamic support for Iran forthcoming what needs to be stressed is that Iran is a "Strategic Loner" in the wider Middle East. It is a Non-Arab and Non -Sunni (Shia) Nation pitted against Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey.
Other than rejuvenating and restoring the paralyzed Hamas and Hezbollah crippled by Israeli military operations, Iran has no viable options, short of risking a direct US-Iran War.
Israel is well aware of the above and it is for this reason, primarily, that Israel is persisting on its air strikes all over in Lebanon on Hezbollah bases.
Indicators exist that Israeli Ground Forces are prepared to move into Lebanon to mop-up Hezbollah strongholds pulverized by Israel Air Force strikes.
Concluding, the major observation that emerges is that Iran is in a' Catch 22' strategic predicament. Iran's military options against Israel, either way, risks Iran being trapped in a major wider US-Iran War.
No comments:
Post a Comment