INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : July 2026

Friday, July 17, 2026

US PRESIDENT "FRACTURES" NATO DESTROYING ITS COHESION

NATO representing Trans-Atlantic unity today stands at critical crossroads "fractured" by the impulsiveness of US President Trump

President Trump in the opening months of his second Presidency made his disdain amply clear at the Munich Conference 2025, his Vice President Vance and his War Secretary Hegseth of NATO. unleashed unprecedented diatribes at European members of NATO accusing them of not sharing enough the burden of European security.

In the recently concluded NATO palpably hovered in the air despite the strained reticence of the European leaders not to be critical of President Trump.

NATO is integral to the security of the Atlantic Alliance. It is the centerpiece of the Western Bloc. Both Europe and the US need a strong NATO in today's uncertain word.

The United States is aware of it but in its present stances appears to let it pass not realizing the long term strategic costs of a "fractured" NATO.

Europe has other options open t0 it. USA has none.

Sunday, July 12, 2026

RUSSIA-IRAN-CHINA TRILATERAL AND INDIA

The most significant spawn of the United States invasion of Iran has been the concretization of the Russia-Iran-China Trilateral in strategic terms.

Iran could withstand the most severe punitive US and Israeli air strikes but also had the resilience to launch retaliatory counterstrikes on Isreal and all US basses in the Middle East.

Iran could do this resulting fr0m the military inflow of Russian and Chinese aid. Russia and China have bilateral security pacts with Iran. While Rusia and China may not have out boots on the ground, their military support w was there with real-time intelligence of US troop movements.

There was nothing that the United States could do to stop this without escalating and enlarging the conflict with Russia and China.

The firming of the Russia-Iran-China Trilateral adds a new FACTOR in Middle East geopolitics to American disadvantage which cannot be wished away nor likely to wither.

India is well placed in relation to this Trilateral. India has good and robust strategic partnership with Russia and with Iran has good civilizational and political ties. With China, ties may be tense but stable with both sides making efforts to do better.

India's security interests are not impacted by this Trilateral, and it may be in India's interests to have this Trilateral in play in theMidle East.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister