China
in 2020 with its military adventurism in Eastern Ladakh sequentially and relentlessly
following seven decades of similar military provocations violating multiple
China-India Border Agreements, emboldened by “China Appeasement’ and ‘Risk
Aversion’ policies of past Indian Governments leaves no political or strategic
space for India other than adopting a firm policy of “China Containment”.
China foisted a militarily adventurist borders
dispute on India which China has perpetuated for 70 years defying all
reasonable solutions. Chi has deliberately impeded solution of China Occupied
Tibet-India Himalayan Border Dispute as any demarcation resulting from
satisfactory solution would rob China of leverages against India of political
and military coercion.
Fast forwarding history of China-India conflictual
relations and border turbulences inflicted by China ‘Slow Creep’ of nibbling
away at Indian Line of Actual Control on pretext of ‘Perceptional Differences”
on alignment of the demarcated Line of Actual Control, interspersed with the
Sino-India War 1062 and the 1967, 1975 and 1986.87 major China-India militany
standoffs the picture in Mid-May 2020 is “Grim”.
China –India Military Confrontation in 2020, as I
have reflected in my Book ‘China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century
Perspectives’ in 2015 and my various Papers and Lectures thereafter is that
China-India Military Confrontation is no longer a mere “Boundary Dispute” but
has graduated into the realm of Asia’s most pronounced and defining
geopolitical rivalries with long term strategic implications.
Geopolitical rivalries draw-in other Major Powers
with stakes in Asian Security and more pointedly in the new geopolitical
construct of Indo Pacific, and especially when Asia’s two Major Powers are
militarily jostling each other on their contested borders with massed military
strengths.
Contemporaneously, it needs to be highlighted that
in the backdrop of the current intensifying China-India Military Confrontation
in 2020 is marked by two major factors—one geopolitical, and the other
military.
Geopolitically, China in 2020 is geopolitically
weakly placed, both regionally and globally. This arises from global concerns
of Major Powers that China is on a wild aggressive rampage across Indo Pacific
reminiscent of Hitler’s unchecked rampage across Europe on eve of World War II
in late 1930s.
The military factor that pervades and rattles China
in 2020 is that especially in the period 2014-20 under current Indian PM
Narendra Modi, India has fast-tracked its border defence infrastructure in
Eastern Ladakh in terms of roads, bridges and forward airfields in close
vicinity of Indian Territory of Aksai Chin militarily usurped by China in 1050s
to build the Chinese Highway through it linking China Occupied Tibet with China
Occupied Xingjian. China perceives that India’s developed border infrastructure
makes both the Aksai Chin Highway and China’s flagship Pakistan project of CPEC
Highway passing through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.
Additionally, India in the last six years India has
started closing in the asymmetrical differentials in its military power with
China in conventional military power. India has achieved credible nuclear
deterrence with China with Beijing under India’s missiles ranges.
it is against this geopolitical and military
backdrop that the current Galwan Military Clashes and Standoff needs to be viewed
and analysed.
India after 70 years has finally shed its ‘Political
Timidity’ in facing China’s relentless mix of political and military coercion
on the Line of Control, China’s relentless offensive to downsize India and to
impede India’s emergence as an Emerged Power.
In Mid-2020, India’s relations with China can be
characterised as one of intense “Strategic Distrust” of China, and to use the
Chinese phrase applied by China to its friendship with its ‘Iron
Brother’-Pakistan’ that India’s ‘Strategic Distrust’ of China is as “High as
the Himalayas and as Deep as the Indian Ocean”.
Seventy years of ‘China Appeasement’ and ‘Risk
Aversion’ policies of past Indian Governments has resulted in India reaching a
‘Tipping Point’ in post Mid-May 2020 Eastern Ladakh military clashes inflicted
by PLA Chinese Army resulting in PM Modi assertively declaring that “Era of
Expansionism is Over”
This
assertion was made by PM Modi on his visit to HQ 14 Corps and troops of Ladakh
Garrison facing China’s massed Army formations in China Occupied Tibet. The
Indian Prime Minister without naming China but abundantly and unmistakeably
aimed this expression at China made in context of Galwan clashes.
The assertion
‘Era of Expansionism is Over’ and that India’s Sovereignty will be defended at
every inch was putting China on notice of India’s intent that henceforth in
relation to Chinese military misadventures against India on the Line of Actual
Control will be militarily contested with matching Indian military force.
The ‘Expansionism’ reference was very apt and timely
because China in the period 2004-14 of Congress Government had nibbled away at
Indian Territory in Ladakh to expand its military presence in Eastern Ladakh
contested space on Line of Control claimed by China as per their perceptions.
The Indian Prime Mistier has given full control to
Indian Army Commanders along India-China Occupied Tibet Borders to deal with
PLA Chinese Army military provocations, intrusions and transgressions
displaying an unprecedented political trust in India’s Military Commanders
facing Chinese Armed Forces might.
Where does India go from here in terms of its
National Security Strategy in face of China’s intensifying military escalation along
the Line of Control and its stubbornness in not agreeing to disengage and
deescalate and respect the military status quo ante as it existed in Eastern
Ladakh as it existed on May 05 2020 when China first clashed with Indian Army
in Galwan Area and which led to two weeks later of the May 15 clashes in which
Indian Army lost 20 soldiers lives and China had 43 soldiers killed by ferocity
of Indian Army troops foiling the Chinese Army attempts to enlarge its presence
in Galwan Valley.
At the time of this writing, it is being reported
that China has reluctantly started making token withdrawals from the
clash-points in Eastern Ladakh but not from the Pangong Lake area.
China under
contemporary geopolitical pressures may seemingly be giving up its stubbornness
of not restoring status quo ante by token and partial disengagement and
de-escalation. But that should only be deemed as a politically expedient step
but not a credible change in China’s implacable hostility or cessation of its
military adventurism and brinkmanship in times to come.
The Indian Republic has to guard against unnecessary
hype with such developments as stated above or celebrate any forthcoming
Chinese disengagement of troops in Eastern Ladakh or de-escalation.
The Indian Prime Minister with the contextual
backdrop of May-July 20202 Chinese military adventurism should finally
recognise and concede that China despite his political outreaches to the
Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan Informal Summit 2017 and Chennai Informal
Summit 2019 is lathe to give up Chinese military adventurism on India’s Borders
with China Occupied Tibet.
Objective analysis by even impassioned political
observers would concede that in 2020 viewing the geopolitical dimensions that
now dominate China-India Military Confrontation, no political or strategic
space exists for India to hope that “Expansionist China” would be amenable to
any Conflict Resolution or Confidence Building Measures.
India
in 2020 has now seriously deliberate and consider that contextually in terms of
Indian National Security Strategy India has only one prudent policy option to
undertake, and that is one of “China Containment”
India’s
‘China Containment” will obviously be frowned upon in Indian policy
establishment and diplomatic circles but wisdom should dawn on them that historically
“Revisionist Powers” bent on imposing an “Expansionist Template” need to be
checked by “Containment Strategies” by all Powers---Major or Small-= - in
unison before Indo Pacific security and stability is irretrievably fractured.
India
cannot be a back-bencher and shy away from “China Containment” when China
seemingly and demonstrably by its military adventurism is inviting such a
reaction.
India’s “China Containment” strategy would
necessarily be multi-pronged—political, economic and military and architectured
with long term perspectives in view and more importantly unmindful of and
independent of any politically expedient Chinese policy reach- outs to wean
away India from India’s adoption of the Indo Pacific Security Template by the
multilateral “QUAD” Initiative.
Detailed recommendations for “China Containment” strategy
that India should put it motion would be the subject of analysis of a separate
Paper.
Concluding, it needs to be asserted that with a case
for “China Containment” policy by India having been established above, despite
the opposition of India’s ‘China Apologists’ and ‘;Non Alignment Gladiators” of
yore, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the onerous task of finally
dispensing India’s decades old ‘China Appeasement’ and ‘Risk Aversion’ policies
of past Congress Governments. China’s Expansionism can only be curtailed by
headlong push-back with a National Security Strategy of “China Containment.
The Indian Republic has to put in motion the process
of a devising a new National Security Strategy. Inherent in such a new
Strategic Blueprint would be a realisation that the ‘China Threat’ is LIVE and
unlikely to fade away. It also entails incorporating in such a new Strategy the
inescapable strategic imperative of “China Containment”.
