Ever since the end of the Second World War in 1945 with United States overwhelming victory over Japan and the emergence of Communist China in October 1950 as a Communist dictatorship in the then Asia Pacific, this Region has been characterised by strategic turbulence generated by Communist China unceasingly from the 20th Century and persisting as the second decade of the 21st Century draws to a close.
The question that begs an answer against the above backdrop is as to why the conflictual propensities of China have not watered down with passage of time of nearly 70 years? Why is that China after having embraced modernisation and globalisation facilitated by the United States generous impulses to ease China into the global system as a responsible stakeholder in regional security still persists with its aggressive impulses against China's neighbours with scant respect for international laws and conventions as is being seen in South China Sea against Vietnam sharing Communism ideology affinity with China?
Simply, the answer is that China is a "Revisionist State" which has a national agenda and blueprint to change the power and security structures in then Asia Pacific and now the enlarged Indo Pacific Region.
China perceives that the Western Pacific on whose littoral Mainland China resides is China's own backyard and wishes to transform all the 'Seas' from East Chin Sea to the South China Sea as one enlarged 'Inland China Sea' and that the United States is the interloper in the Region.
However, ironically for China, the nations in Western Pacific from South Korea, to Japan and the Philippines fearful of China imposing its writ of a 'China-Centric' geopolitical order and security system repose their trust in the United States and perceive that in the ultimate analysis the United Sates is the sole guarantor of their national security and the Indo Pacific Regional Security.
This then brings us to a brief comparative analysis of the demonstrated records of United States and China in the maintenance of peace and security in the Indo Pacific Region.
The analytical comparison is starkly against China and perceived as such in Asian capitals. China is perceived as the "Regional Destabiliser" intent on overturning the existent geopolitical and security template in the Indo Pacific and the harbinger of conflict, instability and Indo Pacific "Disorder" with attendant disruptive uncertainties.
The United States is perceived as the "Nett Guarantor of Regional Security" reinforced by United States challenging China's repetitive propensities for armed conflict commencing with the Korean War, through the Vietnam War and now China's aggression and brinkmanship in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits.
More importantly, the United States generously assisted war-ravaged economies of Japan and South Korea to emerge as 'Asian Tigers' with high economic rates of growth and with democratic political systems. Even China's stupendous economic growth rates would not have taken place without US FDIs and high technology inputs.
In terms of future perspectives two crucial questions emerge contextually. Firstly, will the United States commitments to Indo Pacific Region continue steadfastly into the coming encodes? Secondly, can China be expected to emerge in the coming decades as a responsible and benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security?
Taking the second question first, as United States policy formulations are wholly dependent on China restraining its historical imperialistic impulses, the answer is a big NO. China's national impulses contradictorily intersect with any moves to emerge as a responsible stakeholder in the Indo Pacific
China is convinced that the United States stands as the 'bulwark' restraining China from imposing its own China-Centric geopolitical and security order in Indo Pacific and thwarting the 'Great China Dream' of Chinese Preside Xi Jinping who after capturing all the instruments of State Power in China, political and military, has further secured 'For Life' the office of China's President.
China under President Xi Jinping will obstinately stick to his 'Great China Dream' whose advent was marked by China switching from strategies of 'Soft Power' to 'Hard Power' manifested by intensified aggressive brinkmanship.
China will try all conceivable strategies to prompt a 'US Military Exit' from Western Pacific by inducing 'domestic political fatigue' in United States by China's disruptive 'Salami Slicing Strategies'.
Regrettably for China, the Indo Pacific geopolitical landscape today is characterised by 'Intense Polarisation' against China due to its aggressive brinkmanship and intentions to carry out a 'Revisionist Transformation' in the Indo Pacific.
Written by me elsewhere for years that China itself is to blame for this sorry and adverse image of China. What US diplomacy could not achieve for 50 years China handed the Asian polarisation on a plate to the United States.
In my assessment, the United States is hardly unlikely to endanger the 'Outer Western Pacific Defense Perimeter' of Mainland United States resting on nations of Western Pacific allied to the United States. Even the Philippines as a prodigal son is returning to the US-fold.
Strategic imperatives of US National Security will ensure that the United States remains firmly embedded in the Indo Pacific.
United States transforming the US Pacific Command to 'Indo Pacific Command' under US President Trump reflects United States enlarged and intensified commitments to Indo Pacific Security stiffened by revised US threat perceptions that China cannot change and will continue as a 'Threat" to US Security and the security of its Allies and Strategic Partners like India.
Succeeding US Presidents can be expected not to lower the thresholds of US National Security against a militaristic China.
The question that begs an answer against the above backdrop is as to why the conflictual propensities of China have not watered down with passage of time of nearly 70 years? Why is that China after having embraced modernisation and globalisation facilitated by the United States generous impulses to ease China into the global system as a responsible stakeholder in regional security still persists with its aggressive impulses against China's neighbours with scant respect for international laws and conventions as is being seen in South China Sea against Vietnam sharing Communism ideology affinity with China?
Simply, the answer is that China is a "Revisionist State" which has a national agenda and blueprint to change the power and security structures in then Asia Pacific and now the enlarged Indo Pacific Region.
China perceives that the Western Pacific on whose littoral Mainland China resides is China's own backyard and wishes to transform all the 'Seas' from East Chin Sea to the South China Sea as one enlarged 'Inland China Sea' and that the United States is the interloper in the Region.
However, ironically for China, the nations in Western Pacific from South Korea, to Japan and the Philippines fearful of China imposing its writ of a 'China-Centric' geopolitical order and security system repose their trust in the United States and perceive that in the ultimate analysis the United Sates is the sole guarantor of their national security and the Indo Pacific Regional Security.
This then brings us to a brief comparative analysis of the demonstrated records of United States and China in the maintenance of peace and security in the Indo Pacific Region.
The analytical comparison is starkly against China and perceived as such in Asian capitals. China is perceived as the "Regional Destabiliser" intent on overturning the existent geopolitical and security template in the Indo Pacific and the harbinger of conflict, instability and Indo Pacific "Disorder" with attendant disruptive uncertainties.
The United States is perceived as the "Nett Guarantor of Regional Security" reinforced by United States challenging China's repetitive propensities for armed conflict commencing with the Korean War, through the Vietnam War and now China's aggression and brinkmanship in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits.
More importantly, the United States generously assisted war-ravaged economies of Japan and South Korea to emerge as 'Asian Tigers' with high economic rates of growth and with democratic political systems. Even China's stupendous economic growth rates would not have taken place without US FDIs and high technology inputs.
In terms of future perspectives two crucial questions emerge contextually. Firstly, will the United States commitments to Indo Pacific Region continue steadfastly into the coming encodes? Secondly, can China be expected to emerge in the coming decades as a responsible and benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security?
Taking the second question first, as United States policy formulations are wholly dependent on China restraining its historical imperialistic impulses, the answer is a big NO. China's national impulses contradictorily intersect with any moves to emerge as a responsible stakeholder in the Indo Pacific
China is convinced that the United States stands as the 'bulwark' restraining China from imposing its own China-Centric geopolitical and security order in Indo Pacific and thwarting the 'Great China Dream' of Chinese Preside Xi Jinping who after capturing all the instruments of State Power in China, political and military, has further secured 'For Life' the office of China's President.
China under President Xi Jinping will obstinately stick to his 'Great China Dream' whose advent was marked by China switching from strategies of 'Soft Power' to 'Hard Power' manifested by intensified aggressive brinkmanship.
China will try all conceivable strategies to prompt a 'US Military Exit' from Western Pacific by inducing 'domestic political fatigue' in United States by China's disruptive 'Salami Slicing Strategies'.
Regrettably for China, the Indo Pacific geopolitical landscape today is characterised by 'Intense Polarisation' against China due to its aggressive brinkmanship and intentions to carry out a 'Revisionist Transformation' in the Indo Pacific.
Written by me elsewhere for years that China itself is to blame for this sorry and adverse image of China. What US diplomacy could not achieve for 50 years China handed the Asian polarisation on a plate to the United States.
In my assessment, the United States is hardly unlikely to endanger the 'Outer Western Pacific Defense Perimeter' of Mainland United States resting on nations of Western Pacific allied to the United States. Even the Philippines as a prodigal son is returning to the US-fold.
Strategic imperatives of US National Security will ensure that the United States remains firmly embedded in the Indo Pacific.
United States transforming the US Pacific Command to 'Indo Pacific Command' under US President Trump reflects United States enlarged and intensified commitments to Indo Pacific Security stiffened by revised US threat perceptions that China cannot change and will continue as a 'Threat" to US Security and the security of its Allies and Strategic Partners like India.
Succeeding US Presidents can be expected not to lower the thresholds of US National Security against a militaristic China.
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