South East Asia geostrategically located astride the South China Sea maritime expanse which provides the maritime linkage between the Pacific and Indian Oceans is destined to play a crucial role in Indo Pacific Security in the 21st Century.
From the middle of the first decade of the 21st Century with the exponential and threatening military rise of China, the South East Asian countries have been engaged in beefing up their Navies perceiving that the China Threat as manifested in the South China Sea aggressions earlier against Vietnam and the Philippines now also encompasses Malaysia and Indonesia and more could follow.
Besides this regional context, there is the global context where South East Asia comes into focus with its geostrategic location astride the South China Sea.
This pertains to the 'China Challenge' to the United States which stoutly maintains that the waters of the South China Sea are "Global Commons" as an international waterway and thus cannot be under illegal sovereignty claim of China or China can be allowed to impede free and unrestricted navigation both by sea and the skies above the South China Sea.
The South China Sea in 2020 portends to be the theatre of possible armed conflict between China and the United States with the sabre-rattling that China has commenced on all its peripheries.
Contextually, the South East Asian countries cannot escape the realities that geography has endowed on this immensely geostrategically significant region.
The developing conflictual scenarios edging towards an armed conflict between the United Sates and China due to China's provocative moves would leave no political or strategic space to South East Asian countries to sit on the fence as passive spectators.
ASEAN as the regional political grouping which for decades sought to engage China in dialogues and discussions by inviting China to be participating in various ASEAN mechanisms needs to do some soul-searching in relation to its future linkages with China.
What is unmistakeably clear in 2020 is that China had a certain credibility as long as China professed and acted as per its 'Soft Power' strategies. With switchover to China's 'Hard Power' strategies ASEAN nations like Vietnam and the Philippines were claimed as China's first victims of aggression. Moves have now become visible of China to move against Malaysia and Indonesia.
ASEAN should also not forget the historical context of China covetous design and strategies against South East Asia and claim this crucial geostrategic region as China's backyard. The China-inspired Communist insurgencies in Burma and Malaya were the opening moves.
Various security groupings emerged in intervening decades like SEATO and FPDA. Besides these security mechanisms
ASEAN played around with ZOPFAN as a nuclear free Zone of Peace, Freedom & Neutrality in South East Asia.
ASEAN was lulled into complacency in the last decade of the 20th Century by Chinese duplicitous diplomacy as a responsible stakeholder in South East Asian security. China's cards are now lying open on the cards table and it doses not augur well for South East Asia.
In the contextual developing scenario with marked conflictual overtones it is a strategic imperative both for South East Asian countries to individually and also as ASEAN as their regional grouping to join the dots of China's military intentions in the South China Sea and its impact on their security.
The overall Indo Pacific Security Template can be greatly strengthened if the above dawns on South East Asian countries and ASEAN.
The Major Nations of the Indo Pacific and even Europe are seriously seized with deterring China from its military aggression in South China Sea and therefore can South East Asian countries now afford to be a divided region when Indo Pacific security of which they are a part, stands endangered by China flouting all norms of international laws and conventions.
The stark realty that South East Asian countries and ASEAN as their regional political grouping has to face is that geographical configurations in relation to the South China Sea and China's unfolding intentions therein leave no scope for "Neutrality" !!!
From the middle of the first decade of the 21st Century with the exponential and threatening military rise of China, the South East Asian countries have been engaged in beefing up their Navies perceiving that the China Threat as manifested in the South China Sea aggressions earlier against Vietnam and the Philippines now also encompasses Malaysia and Indonesia and more could follow.
Besides this regional context, there is the global context where South East Asia comes into focus with its geostrategic location astride the South China Sea.
This pertains to the 'China Challenge' to the United States which stoutly maintains that the waters of the South China Sea are "Global Commons" as an international waterway and thus cannot be under illegal sovereignty claim of China or China can be allowed to impede free and unrestricted navigation both by sea and the skies above the South China Sea.
The South China Sea in 2020 portends to be the theatre of possible armed conflict between China and the United States with the sabre-rattling that China has commenced on all its peripheries.
Contextually, the South East Asian countries cannot escape the realities that geography has endowed on this immensely geostrategically significant region.
The developing conflictual scenarios edging towards an armed conflict between the United Sates and China due to China's provocative moves would leave no political or strategic space to South East Asian countries to sit on the fence as passive spectators.
ASEAN as the regional political grouping which for decades sought to engage China in dialogues and discussions by inviting China to be participating in various ASEAN mechanisms needs to do some soul-searching in relation to its future linkages with China.
What is unmistakeably clear in 2020 is that China had a certain credibility as long as China professed and acted as per its 'Soft Power' strategies. With switchover to China's 'Hard Power' strategies ASEAN nations like Vietnam and the Philippines were claimed as China's first victims of aggression. Moves have now become visible of China to move against Malaysia and Indonesia.
ASEAN should also not forget the historical context of China covetous design and strategies against South East Asia and claim this crucial geostrategic region as China's backyard. The China-inspired Communist insurgencies in Burma and Malaya were the opening moves.
Various security groupings emerged in intervening decades like SEATO and FPDA. Besides these security mechanisms
ASEAN played around with ZOPFAN as a nuclear free Zone of Peace, Freedom & Neutrality in South East Asia.
ASEAN was lulled into complacency in the last decade of the 20th Century by Chinese duplicitous diplomacy as a responsible stakeholder in South East Asian security. China's cards are now lying open on the cards table and it doses not augur well for South East Asia.
In the contextual developing scenario with marked conflictual overtones it is a strategic imperative both for South East Asian countries to individually and also as ASEAN as their regional grouping to join the dots of China's military intentions in the South China Sea and its impact on their security.
The overall Indo Pacific Security Template can be greatly strengthened if the above dawns on South East Asian countries and ASEAN.
The Major Nations of the Indo Pacific and even Europe are seriously seized with deterring China from its military aggression in South China Sea and therefore can South East Asian countries now afford to be a divided region when Indo Pacific security of which they are a part, stands endangered by China flouting all norms of international laws and conventions.
The stark realty that South East Asian countries and ASEAN as their regional political grouping has to face is that geographical configurations in relation to the South China Sea and China's unfolding intentions therein leave no scope for "Neutrality" !!!
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