INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : VIETNAM’S PIVOTAL ROLE IN INDO PACIFIC SECURITY-2020 PERSPECTIVES

Thursday, May 7, 2020

VIETNAM’S PIVOTAL ROLE IN INDO PACIFIC SECURITY-2020 PERSPECTIVES

Vietnam in 2020 acquires a renewed geostrategic and geopolitical significance in the context of a military aggressive China endangering Indo Pacific security with its expansionist designs in the South China Sea, whose littoral stands dominated by Vietnam and an unfolding scenario where United States will eventually have to check-mate China bent on challenging United States global predominance, more pointedly in the Indo Pacific.

Vietnam has been severely mauled by China in aggressive wars to take over Vietnam’s Spratlys and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea and even on date violating maritime sovereignty of Vietnam besides those of other ASEAN Nations.

Vietnam is the only Asian nation which outfought China’s aggressive War of 1979 and is a battle-hardened nation which in the last Century outfought Japan in World War II, the United States during the long Vietnam War and Communist China in 1979.

But in 2020, Vietnam to withstand persistent Chinese military aggression in South China Sea would require external assistance, not in terms of military alliances, but military capacity building of Vietnamese Armed Forces and geopolitical support in international forums to ward off China’s aggressive impulses.

In terms of 2020 perspectives, Vietnam’s pivotal significance stands greatly enhanced when contextually viewed against the backdrop of China’s takeover of the dominance of the South China Sea and the unfolding scenarios where the United States belatedly under incumbent US President Donald Trump seems to be in the process of challenging China’s dominance over the South China Sea accomplished through military takeover of South China Sea islands/reefs belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines.

China additionally to establish full scale dominance over the South China Sea has constructed artificial islands and fortified them militarily with, airstrips, naval facilities and missiles emplacements.

In short, the South China Sea is an explosive powder keg which can by even a slight miscalculation by China in underestimating United States determination to prevent China from converting this maritime expanse into an ‘Inland Sea of China’ can ignite full-scale armed conflict between China and the United States.

Vietnam therefore in times to come is destined to play a significant role in United States strategic calculus pertaining to Indo Pacific security. In passing, it needs to be highlighted that the long Vietnam War of the 1960s-74 which pitted United States against China-aided North Korean takeover of South Vietnam was determined predominantly by United States strategic goals that Vietnam, even as a Communist State should not be reduced to be China’s vassal State.

Ironically in 2020, the picture obtaining is that of United States again strategically determined not to allow China to establish hegemonistic control over Vietnam and South China Sea. And this time Vietnam would be on its side. That is why in recent years the United States ha silently embarked on capacity-building of Vietnamese Navy to withstand China’s continued aggressive brinkmanship in the South China Sea.

Vietnam’s pivotal role in Indo Pacific security stands recognised also by Major Asian Nations like Japan and India and in terms of 2020 perspectives is likely this recognition is likely to get enhanced in coming years as China shows no propensity to restrain its aggressive impulses in the South China Sea.

In 2020, Vietnam’s pivotal significance in the Indo Pacific Security Template finds a coincidental strategic convergence between the United States, India and Japan.

While these Major Powers in their own respective strategic blueprints accord salience to Vietnam in their policy formulations there is also a heavy responsibility on Vietnam to move away from policies of deference to China and undue importance that Vietnam attaches to China’s strategic sensitivities at the expense of its long term security interests.

Concluding, I would like to emphasise that there is a greater call on the United States to unreservedly extend massive military and economic assistance to Vietnam to capitalise on Vietnam’s historical strengths, potential and geostrategic location to transform and buildup Vietnam as the ‘South East Asia Sentinel’ of Indo Pacific Security.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister