UNITED STATES TWO DIFFERING LEGACIES IN INDO PACIFIC-KISSINGER'S "CHINA MONSTER" AND GENERAL MACARTHUR'S "JAPAN AS ENDURING ALLY"

In mid-2020 as the world witnesses the United States waking up to the serious threat posed by China to Indo Pacific Security and China's bid to challenge US predominance as the reigning sole Superpower, two opposing images strike one's mind in terms of geopolitical and strategic legacy issues inherited by the United States from its 20th Century diplomatic history.

The immediate image and a disturbing one is that of the  "China Monster" created by the flawed China-centric foreign policy of US President Nixon in early 1970s goaded and manoeuvred by his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

In my assessment US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was mythicized as a great statesman imbued with retaining United States supremacy as the only Superpower. Perceptionally, Kissinger went overboard pursuing political expediency of balancing the Former USSR--then a opposing Superpower, by inducing China into a quasi-strategic ally of the United States.

How long did that last? By the 1980s the United States was having second thoughts on China as a strategic partner against the Former Soviet Union.

Kissinger's assessments of China and Pakistan which he used as an intermediary for openings to Communist China for normalisation of US-China relations in 1970 were deeply flawed.

Ironically today, China today has turned out as a 'Fire Spitting Dragon' engaged in undermining US national security interests all over the Indo Pacific and Pakistan as US Non- NATO Ally and recipient of billions of US dollars in aid has switched from being a 'Front Line State' of the United States to emerge in recent years as 'Front Line State of China' undermining US interests in Indo Pacific Western Segment. 

Obviously, Kissinger's geopolitical vision and formulations on China and Pakistan were grievously wrong in that within a span of 30 years or so both China and Pakistan have turned adversarial to the United States.

In marked contrast to Henry Kissinger's politically expedient legacy what shines out is General Douglas MacArthur's enduring legacy of Japan as an "Enduring Ally" of the United States which has steadfastly proven its Alliance commitments to US Security interests and to Indo Pacific Security for nearly 70 years plus.

In an act of far-sighted statesmanship General MacArthur transformed United States World War II vanquished Japan humbled into submission by two Atomic Bombings into the United States most enduring military ally with due respects and honours.

Japan has more than repaid General MacArthur's trust in Japan reposed on behalf of the United Sates. In 2020 the Indo Pacific Security Template led by the United States rests honourably on the shoulders of Japan as a great Asian Major Power. Japan is the pivot of US security interests.

China contrastingly having achieved exponential military and economic power courtesy 'Flawed China Policy' of Kissinger and follow-up United States policies of 'China Appeasement' and 'Risk Aversion Strategies' of US in relation to China has stabbed in the back the United States as its benefactor.

One wonders today as to why it took so long for US policy establishment to recognise that the 'China Threat' was evolving into United States most serious  security challenge. Presumably, US industrial giants lulled by Kissinger into massive US investments in China were looking more into their balance-sheets  than the 'China Threat ' -in-the-making because of US permissiveness.

The United States owes a great national debt of honour to General MacArthur.If the United States is firmly embedded in the Western Pacific even in 2020, the credit goes to General MacArthur far-sightedness Japan-policy post August 1945.

UNITED STATES & CHINA'S RECORD ON SECURITY IN INDO PACIFIC COMPARATIVELY ANALYSED

Ever since the end of the Second World War in 1945 with United States overwhelming victory over Japan and the emergence of Communist China in October 1950 as a Communist dictatorship in the then Asia Pacific, this Region has been characterised by strategic turbulence generated by Communist China unceasingly from the 20th Century and persisting as the second decade of the 21st Century draws to a close.

The question that begs an answer against the above backdrop is as to why the conflictual propensities of China have not watered down with passage of time of nearly 70 years? Why is that China after having embraced modernisation and globalisation facilitated by the United States generous impulses to ease China into the global system as a responsible stakeholder in regional security still persists with its aggressive impulses against China's neighbours with scant respect for international laws and conventions as is being seen in South China Sea against Vietnam sharing Communism ideology affinity with China?

Simply, the answer is that China is a "Revisionist State" which has a national agenda and blueprint to change the power and security structures in then Asia Pacific and now the enlarged Indo Pacific Region.

China perceives that the Western Pacific on whose littoral Mainland China resides is China's own backyard and wishes to transform all the 'Seas' from East Chin Sea to the South China Sea as one enlarged 'Inland China Sea' and that the United States is the interloper in the Region.

However, ironically for China, the nations in Western Pacific from South Korea, to Japan and the Philippines fearful of China imposing its writ of a 'China-Centric' geopolitical order and security system repose their trust in the United States and perceive that in the ultimate analysis the United Sates is the sole guarantor of their national security and the Indo Pacific Regional Security.

This then brings us to a brief comparative analysis of the demonstrated records of United States and China in the maintenance of peace and security in the Indo Pacific Region.

The analytical comparison is starkly against China and perceived as such in Asian capitals. China is perceived as the "Regional Destabiliser" intent on overturning the existent geopolitical and security template in the Indo Pacific and the harbinger of conflict, instability and Indo Pacific "Disorder" with attendant disruptive uncertainties.

The United States is perceived as the "Nett Guarantor of Regional Security" reinforced by United States challenging China's repetitive propensities for armed conflict commencing with the Korean War, through the Vietnam War and now China's aggression and brinkmanship in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Straits.

More importantly, the United States generously assisted war-ravaged economies of Japan and South Korea to emerge as 'Asian Tigers' with high economic rates of growth and with democratic political systems. Even China's stupendous economic growth rates would not have taken place without US FDIs and high technology inputs.

In terms of future perspectives two crucial questions emerge contextually. Firstly, will the United States commitments to Indo Pacific Region continue steadfastly into the coming encodes? Secondly, can China be expected to emerge in the coming decades as a responsible and benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security?

Taking the second question first, as United States policy formulations are wholly dependent on China restraining its historical imperialistic impulses, the answer is a big NO. China's national impulses contradictorily intersect with any moves to emerge as a responsible stakeholder in the Indo Pacific

China is convinced that the United States stands as the 'bulwark' restraining China from imposing its own China-Centric geopolitical and security order in Indo Pacific and thwarting the 'Great China Dream' of Chinese Preside Xi Jinping who after capturing all the instruments of State Power in China, political and military, has further secured 'For Life' the office of China's President.

China under President Xi Jinping will obstinately stick to his 'Great China Dream' whose advent was marked by China switching from strategies of 'Soft Power' to 'Hard Power' manifested by intensified aggressive brinkmanship.

China will try all conceivable strategies to prompt a 'US Military Exit' from Western Pacific by inducing 'domestic political fatigue' in United States by China's disruptive 'Salami Slicing Strategies'.

Regrettably for China, the Indo Pacific geopolitical landscape today is characterised by 'Intense Polarisation' against China due to its aggressive brinkmanship and intentions to carry out a 'Revisionist Transformation' in the Indo Pacific.

Written by me elsewhere for years that China itself is to blame for this sorry and adverse image of China. What US diplomacy could not achieve for 50 years China handed the Asian polarisation on a plate to the United States.

In my assessment, the United States is hardly unlikely to endanger the 'Outer Western Pacific Defense Perimeter' of Mainland United States resting on nations of Western Pacific allied to the United States. Even the Philippines as a prodigal son is returning to the US-fold.

 Strategic imperatives of US National Security will ensure that the United States remains firmly embedded in the Indo Pacific.

United States transforming the US Pacific Command to 'Indo Pacific Command' under US President Trump reflects United States enlarged and intensified commitments to Indo Pacific Security stiffened by revised US threat perceptions that China cannot change and will continue as a 'Threat" to US Security and the security of its Allies and Strategic Partners like India.

Succeeding US Presidents can be expected not to lower the thresholds of US National Security against a militaristic China.

UNITED STATES AND CHINA’S COMPETING NARRATIVES IN INDO PACIFIC REGION 2020

United States and China have played out competing narratives in the earlier Asia Pacific ever since China emerged in October 1949 as a Communist giant monolithic State. Competing narratives of United States and China in mid-2020 have assumed hotly contentious confrontational contours in the now enlarged Indo Pacific Region.

United States and China’s competing narratives spin around fundamentally on the respective strategic goals of these significant major rivals on the security and stability of the Indo Pacific Region.

United States-China competing narratives are now no longer determined by ideological considerations of the Cold War era but now stand graduated to an intense geopolitical and military confrontation between China and United States as they jostle for power and influence over the vast maritime expanses of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and adjoining littorals with littoral countries nudged into taking sides.

Notably, the United States narrative on Indo Pacific draws many Asian capitals to United States point of view as in mid-2020  China suffers from ‘Severe Strategic Distrust’ in Asian capitals arising from its South China Sea military adventurism in wake of switching to ‘Hard Power’ strategies.  

The United States attaches prime importance to the Indo Pacific Region as the Western Pacific nations of Japan. South Korea and the Philippines tied in bilateral security alliances with the United States provide the Outer Perimeter of the defence of the US Homeland.

China perceives the Western Pacific as its maritime backyard and perceives Japan, South Korea and the Philippines (not now) with US Forces Forward Military Presence as springboards for possible US military interventions against China.

It needs to be highlighted that outweighing the above is the maritime significance of the Western Pacific sea-lanes traversing the South China Sea from the Straits of Malacca to the East China Sea in proximity of Japan and South Korea.

Conversely these sea-lanes traversing South China Sea are also the lifelines for China’s energy needs and commerce.  Besides the economic dimension the Western Pacific is perceived by China as its natural sphere of dominance as an aspiring Superpower challenger competing against the United States.

Tersely termed, the United States stands firmly embedded in the Western Pacific ever since August1945 with sizeable forward deployment of US Military Forces, US Air Force and US Navy and China as an aspiring Superpower wishes to prompt a United States military exit from the Western Pacific leaving the field open for China’s political and maritime aggrandizement.

The pursuit of respective United Sates and China’s strategic narratives has reduced the Asia Pacific Region earlier and now the enlarged Indo Pacific Region in United States and China in varying states of confrontation and conflict.

China’s propensity to engage United States in armed conflict extends from the Korean War of 1950-53, the Vietnam War of the 964-1972 and interspersed with military brinkmanship in the Taiwan Straits, against South Korea and Japan.

The United States contrastingly under the misperceptions of President Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger initiated a China Appeasement policy till recent years, followed by decades of ‘Risk Aversion’ policies against China.

China resultantly for decades stood emboldened to advance its Grand Strategy by intrusive political and military strategies in East Asia, South East Asia and South Asia. All this resulted in dents in US image all over Asia as a guarantor of security and stability in Asia.

Sensing the above but tied down by pressures of US ‘Risk Aversion’ strategies, the United States passed through various stages of its China policy formulations ranging from ‘Engagement’ to ‘Congagement’ and now in mid—2020 to teetering over ‘Confrontational Conflict’. 

The better part of the 21^st Century seems destined to witness political and military turbulence in the Indo Pacific Region as the United States and China play out their competing narratives in a region which witnesses in mid-2020 a China facing a hostile isolation from Major Asian Powers whose national security interests have a strategic convergence with those of the United States as regards China.

INDO PACIFIC REGION-THE GATHERING CONFLICTUAL STORM MID 2020

The United States would not be far wrong in perceptively viewing the China-originated and China-suppression of information on the Wuhan Virus 2019 outbreak resulting in nearly 70,000 US citizens dead and US economy losing trillions of dollars as akin to the Japanese Pearl Harbour attack on United States leading to United States opening its biggest World War II offensives in Asia Pacific.


Strategic analysts like me were anticipating that with the rapid strides being made by China in Cyber Warfare that should conflict breakout between United States and China a temptation would emerge for China to launch Cyber Warfare Pearl Harbour-type attack on the United States.


What has emerged in the wake of the global breakout of the Wuhan Virus 2019 Pandemic where circumstantial evidence points out that China by suppressing crucial information on the outbreak of Wuhan Virus 219 breakout has opened itself to accusations of deliberate suppression of information on the Pandemic outbreak with ulterior motives. Nor has China as recompense offered any apologies for the Pandemic outbreak as an inadvertent occurrence.

For the last few weeks both US President Donald Trump and US Secretary of State Pompeo have articulated assertions pointing accusing fingers at China on the lines outlined above. This should be considered as a ‘Tipping Point” in US-China relations and also for the security and stability of the Indo Pacific Region.

On May 4 2020 TV media reports indicate that a Five Nation Joint Intelligence Report has asserted that the Wuhan Virus 19 originated from China’s Virological Establishments located at Wuhan. US President Trump has warned China that China will have to account and pay for the losses suffered by United States and other countries in Europe and Asia.  


This has led to China being strongly critical of US President Trump and the US Establishment in some unprecedented Chinese hostile rhetoric never witnessed earlier in history of US-China relations.


The Indo Pacific Region stood already beset by conflictual overtones due to China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea against her weaker ASEAN neighbours and the hotly contested US-China Trade Wars.

Noticeable too in May 2020 is that while the United States stood preoccupied by managing the heavy losses in US lives and the ravaging impact on US economy arising from the Wuhan Virus 19 Pandemic, China instead of restraint and prudence has lately revived its political and military coercive aggression in the South China Sea against the Philippines, Vietnam and further adding to its list Malaysia and Indonesia.


Contextually, China today is being accused in the Indo Pacific Region of trying to exploit the strategic vacuum in the Western Pacific at the expense of the United States and its Allies and Strategic Partners. Contextually read it amounts to China relentlessly pursuing its strategy of controlled escalation against the United States.


Regrettably, in earlier US-China conflict-prone confrontations, leeway would exist for both the United States and China to resile from their extreme positions, the situation in mid-2020 is qualitatively different.


This time what has emerged as noticeably different is that in the United States bipartisan political support exists for United States to adopt Hard Line policies on China and domestic public opinion is also likewise. In China domestic dissent has emerged and with slowing economy this would gather pace resulting in brutal suppression by the Chinese President.


No leeways seem to hover over the horizon to suggest that the United States would let go of its ‘Hard Line’ approaches on China  on the question of accountability for the Wuhan Virus 2019 outbreak and nor has China till this moment exhibited any indicators of exit from its present ‘Hard Power’ strategies in the Indo Pacific Region.


In mid-May 2020, the strategic portents are that with had line postures of United States and China further solidifying in months to come a strategic conflictual storm is certainly gathering over the Indo Pacific Region.