The Middle East has been turbulent ever since October 7, 2023, when Iranian Proxies Armed Militias' , Hamas and Hezbollah, besieged Israel following Hamas unprovoked diabolical attacks on Israeli citizens killing nearly 1800 Israelis.
Realistically speaking, Iran's Proxy Armed Militias, Hamas and Hezbollah, would not have dared to provoke Israel into escalated hostilities--an all-out war, but for a 'Green Light' from Iran which is the financier and supplier of military hardware of these Armed Militias.
One year down the line, a 'Strategic Reality' check is objectively possible to draw major geopolitical & strategic conclusions so emerging.
United States is at War with Iran along with Isreal
United States may not have directly attacked Iran in the last one year in tandem with Israel's relentless military offensives in Gaza and Lebanon, but the United States in terms of a strategic reality check is at war with Iran on two counts.
Besides, sustaining Israel's offensives with its military wherewithal, the United States in both Direct Attacks by Iran on Israel, with its reinforced Armed Fooces deployments in the region, intercepted and destroyed Iranian rockets/missile targeting Israel.
In both Iranian Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks on Israel. the United States provided a "Missile Shield" to Israel along with British Forces and Arab allies of United States.
This was an active American military involvement in Israel's war against Iran.
United States air strikes on Houthis in Yemen and on Iranian proxies in Iraq and in Syria also amount to undeclared war by United States to degrade Iran's war-waging capability against Israel.
United States seems to be holding back on sizeable military intervention against Iran till such time US Presidential Elections take place on November 5.
Russia Pivots Strategically Towards Iran: Change From Earlier Even Stance
Russia noticeably has strategically tilted fully towards Iran after abandoning its earlier "Even Stance" maintained between Iran and Mjor Arab countries.in Lebanon.
In my last Article it was highlighted that Russian PM made a hurried dash to Iran following which within hours Iran launched its Escalated Second Direct Attack on Israel.
Russian involvement in Israel-Iran War could intensify with no cessation of Israeli strikes
While writing, news has come out that Russia has seriously warned Israel against strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
China Apparently an Impassive Spectator
Surprisingly, China despite its 25 Years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Iran seems to be an impassive spectator on the escalating trajectory in Middle East.
China in recent past had brokered a Peace Deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia and between Hamas and PLO Fateh.
Chinese hyperactivity in brokering peace between Iran and Israel is not visible.
Escalation Dominance Rests with Israel
Israel retains 'Escalation Dominance' in the ongoing War between Iran and Israel despite two Direct Rockets/Missiles Attacks by Iran.
Israel has relentlessly pursued its offensives both against Hamas and Hezbollah with renewed vigor, notwithstanding the above.
Noticeably, Iran virtually sued for peace by declaring after its Second Direct Attack on Israel that it will not launch any more attacks on Israel unless Israel indulges on retaliatory strikes.
Israel's 'Escalation Dominance' is evident when it continues to assert that it will carry out retaliatory Strikes on Iran.
Israel's Escalation ofWar against Iran Restrained by United States Presidential Elections
Israel would have launched crippling strikes on Iran's nuclear assets and petrochemicals complexes but for restraint ordered by US President Biden so as not to adversely affect chances of a Democrats victory of Vice President Kamal Harris as President on November 5.
That restraint may not be operative after November 5, 2024. Should Trump get re-elected as US President, Iran could be in for a major escalation by United States and Israel.
Israel Succeeds in Crippling Hamas and Hezbollah Strike Capabilities Against Israel
Israel has inflicted crimpling losses on men, materiels and logistics support of Hamas in Gaza Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their strike capabilities against Israel stand degraded.
It will take Iran at least ten years to rebuild and regroup Hamas and Hezbollah into their pre-October 7 military potency.
Israel's 'Intelligece Domination' both by Tecnical Surveillance and Human Intelligence
Israeli successes in liquidating the entire top-rung of Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, not only in Gaza and Lebanon but as far as the very heart of Iran, speaks volumes of Israel's 'Intelligence Domination' over Iran and its Proxies.
Israel relies heavily on an extensive ground network of 'Human Intelligence' both by Mossad and locally recruited agents.
No wonder Mossad is considered globally as "Prince Amongst Spies". It is amazing how much painstaking time and effort Mossad spends on training its operatives headed for Iran and neighboring countries.
Future Geopolitical and StrategicPerspectives: Isreal& United States Versus Iran War
Geopolitically, the Middle East will see an intense "polarization" between Unites States & Allies versus the Russia-Iran-China Trilateral.
The Middle East will witness a greater Sunni-Shia sectarian rift notwithstanding Iran's concerted bid to project itself as the 'Defender of Islam' over the heads of Saudi Arabia.
Iran will not be able to achieve its bid to emerge as the Middle East's 'Predominant Regional Power'. The Middle East polarization against Iran grows by the day.
Iran's overt Nuclear Weaponization will not add to Iran's deterrence against United States and Israel.
Ceasefire between Israel and Iran or any brokered peace deal does not even lurk over the horizon.
In Conclusion, what emerges from the above reality check is that the ongoing War is likely to escalate into a wider Middle East conflagration.
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