Global geopolitical dynamics and adversarial configurations affecting national security interests of United States and India in 2024, presage, that in the second decade of the 21st Century, the strategic interdependence of the United States and India, would transcend the Indo Pacific security template, even more markedly.
The 'China Threat' would continue to be the most potent and dangerous threat to both United States and India in the Indo Pacific security context.
The above assessment is a logical conclusion that arises from the adversarial trajectory that China has adopted towards the United States and India, which shows no signs of restraint, or reversal.
China on the contrary has moved to further reinforce the adversarial equations with the United States and India. China has forged the Russia-China Axis to counterbalance the United States. To offset India, China forged the China-Pakistan Axis, besides attempting to dilute Russia-India relations.
China has gridlocked itself in confrontation with the United States not only in Indo Pacific, but that hostility manifests itself, directly and by proxy, in the Middle East, East Mediterranean, South America, and the Oceanic Island States of the Southern Pacific.
In 2024, even Europe and NATO have not escaped the tremors of the unfolding and expanding China Threat transcending Indo Pacific confines.
China is locked with India in an intense military confrontation on the over 3,000 km length of India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet. It is no longer a boundary dispute but has now accentuated geopolitical dimensions.
Reflected in my Book; 'China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives' in 2015 was "The unfolding China-India geopolitical rivalry in the 21st Century, notably, is underwritten by and accentuated by the mid-20th Century, China-India military confrontation whose seeds were sown by the forcible military occupation of Tibet by China."
Taking all of the above factors, and adding, China's strategic forays impinging on US security interests across the globe, and Chinese attempts to stamp on Indian security and influence interests in its neighborhood, the stage seems to be set for the United States and India to mould and integrate their 'Strategic Interdependence' in more substantive contours.
Pertinent, therefore, is the need to spell out briefly, the geopolitical, military and economic interdependencies of the United States and India.
Geopolitical interdependence between United States and India was recognized by United States and India, at the turn of the Millennium when the US-India Strategic Partnership was initially signed.
These geopolitical imperatives have multiplied in the last two decades as the China Threat magnified and the United States dispensed with its strategic ambiguities on China and the China-Pakistan Axis recognizing the futility of molding China to be a responsible stakeholder in global affairs.
In 2024, India figures high in United States global geopolitical perspectives, and vice-versa, too. This has led to both the United States and India elevating their Strategic Partnership to a 'Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership'.
Militarily, the United States and India, having well-recognized their strategic interdependence have in place today institutionalized and integrated security mechanisms like BESA, LEMOA and COMCASA, which both in peace and moreso, in times of operational emergencies would enable effective military responses.
Miliary professionals can decode how the United States security architecture in Western Pacific and India's military deployments on China Occupied Tibet Borders and Indian Navy's predominance in Indian Ocean contribute to both Nations' interdependence.
India is well-poised to emerge as the 'Third Largest Economy ' in the world, with United States at 'Number One'. India's economic rise has arisen to this high point with infusion of FDI from the United States and its Allies, arising from the strengthening of the US-India Strategic Partnership.
In tandem, with India's current political fast-track measures on 'Manufacturing' and 'Semi-Conductors' being priority aims, the United States dependence on China in these two vital fields would be strategically reduced. US and Western major business interests are relocating to India from China.
The 'Strategic Interdependence' template of United States and India having been laid out, a crucial question that begs an answer would be the longevity of this 'Strategic Interdependence'.
In my assessment, 'Strategic Interdependence' is unlike to reduce or be devalued, simply for the reason, that even with the possibility of 'China Threat' becoming non-existent, the unfolding geopolitical and geoeconomic factors would continue to sustain the bonds of the Global Stategic Partnership between the two countries.
Concluding, it needs to be emphasized that that both the United States and India should endeavor to respect each other's strategic sensitivities on vital global and regional issues.
Here, the call is much higher on the United States which at times lets political expediencies offering short-term tactical gains predominate the long-term perspectives of this vital 'Strategic Interdependence 'between the United States and India.
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