The prospects of an Israel-Iran War are real. moreso, because Hamas political head Ismael Haniyeh was liquidated by Israel right in the heart of Iranian capital, Teheran. Iran's potent Proxy Armed Militias top leadership, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been struck by fatal blows from Israel.
These two seismic events bring more proactively into play the ongoing simmering power-play in the Middle East between the United States confronted by Russia and China making strategic forays in the Region.
United States, under any political dispensation, is strongly committed to security and existence of Israel, as a Nation State, against threats from any quarter. Israel is assisted by United States with billions of dollars in military aid and hardware.
Iran's avowed aim is to destroy Israel, even more patently obsessive, than other Muslim Nations.
Russia and China have not publicly committed on protecting Iran against security threats emanating from Israel and United States.
China has already in existence a 25-Year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran. Russia is reported to be in the final stages of concluding a similar Agreement with Iran.
Rusia was the initial military supplier to Iran but then China overtook Russia, with China not only assisting Iran with nuclear weapons technology, but also facilitated North Korean IRBM technology for Iran.
In terms of perspectives, the United States with reduced dependencies on Middle East oil from about8% to 14, is now focused solely on security of Israel and overall regional security.
Russia and China's perspectives on Middle East are colored by the reality of using the Middle East as a "Strategic Pressure-Point" against the United States, to divert United States strategic attention from their military misadventures in Ukraine and in South China Sea.
While Russia's counter-strategic pressure point of Middle East is more or less post-Ukraine development, China has long played this card in the Middle East against the United States.
Long observed by me has been China's propensity to play the 'Iranian Card' against the United States, whenever the United States tightens the screws against China on Taiwan or in the larger Indo Pacific.
In the final analysis, in terms of an all-out Iran-Israel War, while United States and NATO are likely to use their air power and naval deployments to limit Iranian missiles and drone strikes against Israel, as they did in April 2024, it is unlikely that China or Russia could do likewise.
However, Russia and China, can be surely expected to sustain Iranian war-waging capacity against Israel by supplies of missiles, arms and ammunition.
In the scenario of an Iran-Isael War, borrowing a leaf from the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, such a war could be of long duration, simply because in absence of geographical contiguity with Israel, Iran would have to restrict its war to missiles & drones' warfare, which Iran has plenty in terms of indigenous production.
Such a War in the Middle East would keep the United States "Strategically Distracted" from the Indo Pacific, wherein China resides as the 'Prime Threat' to United States national security interests and influence.
The United States paid a heavy price during the period the period 2001-10, when US 'Strategic Distractions' in Iraq and Afghanistan, enabled China to implement its RMA plans for Armed Forces, to create a Blue Water Navy and establish control over South China Sea,
Since then, China has assumed more belligerent postures in IndoPacific in relation to Taiwan, South China Sea and lately against the Philippines.
Since then, the Russia-China Axis has concretized in more integrated forms following Russian Invasion of Ukraine and China's sustenance of the Russian Invasion with military and logistic support.
The Russia-China Axis lately is more visible in Western Pacific with Russia-China Joint Naval Exercises and Joint Combat Air Patrols in the Northwest Qadrant of Indo Pacific.
Notably, Russia-China Joint Air Patrols have indulged in provocative air-maneuvers in proximity of US territory of Alaska.
The Indo Pacific thus emerges seriously impacted by the geopolitical and strategic inter-linkages that Middle East explosive volatility have on Indo Pacific security.
Learning the bitter lessons from the 'Strategic Distraction "of 2002-10, which China exploited to its military advantage, it is hoped that the United States would this time ensure that no "Strategic Voids" are created in the Indo Pacific as a result of its strategic focus on the explosive Middle East.
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