Perceptibly, Peoples Republic of China can be estimated to have struck a 'Declining Trajectory' under twelve years of ruthless iron rule of incumbent President Xi Jinping who fancies himself as Mao-Tse Tung 2.0.
Xi Jinping has been President of Communist China since 2013. Prior to that he was Secretary of Chinese Communist Party since 2012. He also has been Vice President of China 2008-13.
In the first few years of his rule President Xi Jinping captured China's all three levers of power, namely, President of China, Secretary Chinese Communist Party and Chairman, Central Military Commission.
In the process, President Xi Jinping ruthlessly deposed /eliminated all opposition to him in the higher ranks of the Party, bureaucracy, and more notably, Generals in the Peoples Liberation Army.
China was at its peak in terms of geopolitical stature, economic strength and military power when President Xi Jinping assumed power in Beijing in 2013.
China's ascendant power trajectory was a heady mix of United States geopolitical permissiveness, massive flow of FDI from United States and China's creation of a 'Blue Water Navy in the years preceding 2013 due to American strategic distractions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In 2013, with President Xi Jinping in power in Beijing, China switched from 'Soft Power' strategies to exercise of 'Hard Power', military brinkmanship and aggression from South China Sea to the Himalayan Heights of India's Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet.
In the pursuance of his 'Great China Dream' and fancying himself as true inheritor of Mao Tse Tung, President Xi Jinping adopted a reckless geopolitical course of flexing military muscle on China's peripheries and thereby raising widespread strategic concern of a China Threat with Hitlerian impulses.
In 2024, major indicators of China's power profile lead towards a predictable estimate of 'Declining Trajectory' which with China's widening 'Strategic Vulnerabilities' may get more pronounced as years unfold.
As a matter of fact, in my earlier writings with South Analysis Group, since around 2015 or so, I have been emphasizing that China has glaring 'Strategic Vulnerabilities' which offer a window of opportunity to both United States and India. to exploit.
Briefly outlined below, is a focus on China's glaring 'Strategic Vulnerabilities' which are prompting world capitals to revise the American propagated 'Myth' that China is a Superpower, done more to squeeze funds for defense budget from US Congress.
Geopolitically, China in 2024, under President Xi Jinping has lost its geopolitical Lustre. With Russia-China Axis solidifying, China's 'geopolitical asset value' to United States and West, has virtually diminished.
Geopolitically, China today, can be estimated to be diplomatically isolated in Indo Pacific width deep polarization, heavily weighted against it.
Economically, under President Xi Jinping China has taken a virtual nose-dive. From double-digit annual growth rates hovering around 12.5 %, the growth rates have dropped to about 6 %.
China's major economic strength of global domination in 'Manufactures Strength' today stands whittled down with US & Western capital outflows to Vietnam and India.
China's housing sector is in a state of collapse with a million dwelling units lying unsold and infrastructure giants collapsing. It has a cascading effect on Chinese economy.
China's Provinces are heavily in debt forcing diversion of Central Budget to bail them out.
Reports suggest that there is widespread domestic unrest brewing which is being brutally suppressed.
Economically, China may have been an Economic Superpower, but that story is now past. Its trillion dollars economy is besieged with 'trillions of economic vulnerabilities'.
Undoubtedly, China has a massive military machine backed by Nuclear Weapons and ICBMs. China's military power stands concentrated in Occupied Tibet and Coastal Provinces on Pacific littoral.
In 2024, China's virtual military hegemony stands challenged by the military rise of India and Japan as 'contending Asian Powers' and both having territorial disputes with China.
In 2924, China has been stared back even by the Philippines in its South China sea disputes
The overall 'Balance of Power' against China in Indo Pacific is heavily weighted against it, by US-led security architecture resting on bilateral security alliances and multilateral security groupings like QUAD, SQUAD, AUKUS and the many Trilaterals with US of Western Pacific nations.
Importantly, China's Armed Forces despite their manpower dominance and technical advancements have never been tried and tested in combat.
Military purges and liquidations of Chinese military hierarchy including rent case of the Defense Minister by President Xi Jinping suggest both a backlash against Chinese President's imperial hold and dissension within ranks of Armed Forces.
Moving to the more unquantifiable element of 'National Cohesion' it can be asserted that the above discussed factors coupled with restiveness in China's outlying Western Frontiers of Occupied Sinkiang and Occupied Tibet, China has a fistful of Internal Security challenges. No wonder that the budget for Chinese Armed Police tasked for internal suppression, some say, outstrips that of the Chinese Army.
Concluding, the following major observations sustain the prediction that China is plunging into a 'Declining Trajectory' under the 12 -year iron rule of President Xi Jinping:
- China's geopolitical weightage has considerably whittled down. China is no longer viewed in world capitals as a responsible stakeholder in upholding regional and global peace and stability.
- China's long-vaunted economic strengths stand greatly diminished by China's trillions of economic problems discussed above and rise of India's manufacturing strengths.
- Militarily, the Balance of Power' is heavily weighted against China by two successive US Presidents 'Hard Line' policies on China, crafting a host of security groupings to combat the unfolding China Threat.
- Military rise of India and Japan and their contributions to building military capacity of Western Pacific nations is a serious challenge to China's unquestioned military dominance so afar.
- China's military budget cannot escape cuts due to China's slow- down of economy.
Predictably, the other monolith Communist Power that is Former Soviet Union disintegrated under weight of economic vulnerabilities, domestic discontent and ethnic restiveness in 1991 after 72 years of Communist rule, Can Communist China with glaring 'Strategic Vulnerabilities' last longer?
History provides no evidence of 'Totalitarian States' lasting for a Century or beyond. Can Communist China emerge to the contrary?
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