China's State organ in an unprecedented step extolled India's emergence as a 'Major Power' under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi. This has sent global geopolitical analysts in a tizzy as to what are China's underlying intentions behind such an assertion?
Only two deductions can be drawn from China's unsolicited assertion of conceding that India has emerged as a 'Major Power' under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi 2014-24.
Taking at face value, it can be surmised that China's intentions are "pious" and that China may be interested in resetting China-India bitterly adversarial relations stemming from six decades of unresolved boundary disputes and massive armed confrontation on the Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.
At the other end of the spectrum when the China-India contentious and adversarial relationship is contextualized against China's policy of impeding India's rise as a Major Power, then doubts emerge on China's intentions.
Chinas in view of historical pattern of adversarial relations with India leads one to conclude that China's intentions may be devious and divisive.
India's emergence as a Major Power with substantive geopolitical weightage has been made possible by India's diplomatic drives under PM Modi and casting India's tilt towards the United States, the West and Amirian allies in Indo Pacific.
Contrary to India's official assertions that India is adopting Multilateralism as a foreign policy precept, the reality is that India is markedly with the United States and the West, despite occasional irritants in US-India relations.
The above strategic equations and India's expanding presence in the IndoPacific has weighted the 'Balance of Power' in Western Pacific and Southern Pacific against China.
In the above scenario, China has only two options, namely to cut down India to size by a major conflict on the China-India Borders or secondly, to temporize with India by "Driving a Wedge" between United States and India.
The first option of a major China-India War is unlikely as China would have deciphered after 2020 Galwan Clashes and massive buildup in Ladakh that India under PM Modi is no longer a 'military pushover'. Further, that India has drastically reduced its military asymmetries with China both in terms of force deployments and border infrastructure.
China's second option therefore comes into play and that is to "Drive a Wedge" in US-India Strategic Partnership, which is a low-cost option.
China to drive a wedge in US-India relations can be assessed to operate on two different planes----one on the global geopolitical stage and the other on Inda's own domestic political situation.
The global geopolitical stage offers China many avenues to subtly discomfit India and sow doubts in Indian leadership on the "Value" of India's strategic partnership with the United States.
Briefly, the range of China's attempts could incorporate the reinvigoration of the Russia-India-China Trilateral and pressing the US for a US -China Dyad (Obama vintage) to manage Indo Pacific security which would then raise doubts in minds of Indian policy planners on United States future directions vis-a-vis China and India.
In India's domestic politics, which are divisive and in which the Opposition is more Leftist inclined, China could use Disinformation Warfare follow a two-pronged strategy.
China could keep extolling India's emergence as a Major Power but subtly inject in Indian political discourse that PM Modi has achieved it at a political price wherein India's own interests are subjugated to United States larger interest.
India's Opposition would be overready to lap -up the Chinese line and blow it out of proportion for political mileage against PM Modi.
As it is there exists an intriguing convergence of China, Pakistan & India's major Opposition parties for a 'regime-change' of Modi Government.
Could there be a Russia-China connection in this geopolitical game? This question emerges because only a few weeks earlier, Russian President Putin was also heaping praise on India and PM Modi's leadership.
Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that if China's aim is divisive to "Drive a Wedge" in US-India Strategic Partnership, then China has a steep uphill task, simply, because a vast majority of Indians 'See more value' in India's partnership with the United States than China.
China at all levels in India suffers heavily from a "Strategic Trust Deficit" which requires China to concede substantive concessions to India after decades of unremitting aggression and military confrontation.
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