Indo Pacific Security Environment was turbulent in 2023 and presages an even more tumultuous security environment in 2024 taking off from China's continued propensity to use a mixture of using force to settle land and maritime disputes with its neighbors and political and military coercion.
Since Indo Pacific will continue to be the 'center of gravity' of global geopolitics it is pertinent to carry out a strategic audit and highlight major geopolitical and strategic observations that emerge from 2023 events.
United States is the Predominant Power in Indo Pacific & Globally
Strategic and geopolitical reality glaringly highlights that United States continues with unrivalled predominance in Indo Pacific and globally too.
China's propaganda campaign to the contrary to paint 'United States as a Declining Power' has not received any traction in Indo Pacific or in global geopolitics.
United States Bilateral Security Partnerships in Indo Pacific Stand Reinforced Due to 'China Threat' Perceptions
Asserted in my writings and in my book on China was the singular observation that China handed 'on a platter' to the United States what American diplomats could not achieve for decades.
This was a highly polarized Indo Pacific against China, as a consequence of China's predatory forays on its peripheries. The China Threat is palpably felt in Indo Pacific.
The wide expanse of Indo Pacific extending from South Korea, Japan, Philippines and India have close-knit bilateral security ties with United States and can be stated as heavily polarized against China.
The Philippines after courting China for decades has returned to United States obit.
ASEAN fence-sitters like Indonesia and Malaysia too are resetting their strategic postures.
Superimposing over and above this web of bilateral security ties in Indo Pacific, the United States has forged multilateral groupings like QUAD and AUKUS. both implicitly aimed at checkmating China.
China Despite Exponential Massing of Military Power has 'NoNatural Allies' in Indo Pacific Except North Korea and Pakistan
This stark reality stands reflected in my writings for more than a decade. This reality persisted in 2023 and likely to persist in 2024.
North Korea in 2023 has gravitated towards Russia in 2023 and Pakistan displays trends of promiscuity by trying to balance the Chinese 'Colonial Hold' over Pakistan by trying to reinvent its strategic utility to United States.
Russia is not a 'Natural Ally' of China. The Russia-China Nexus is a 'Compulsive Strategic Marriage of Geopolitical Convenience'. Strains are visible.
China Inevitably Headed for Intense Military Confrontation with the United States
In 2001, I had predicted that China is headed towards 'Cold War 2.0' confrontation with United States. The Indo Pacific security environment has evolved so, and the manifestations of same were intense in 2023.
Chinese- aided North Korea nuclear provocations against South Korea and Japan, maritime disputes with Japan and Philippines, South China Sea disputes with Philippines and Vietnam, and China's intense military confrontations on India's borders with China Occupied Tibet, are explosive tinderboxes.
China continues to threaten 'Military Invasion of Taiwan' emboldened by Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This could be the tipping-point in China-US military confrontations.
China's Image in IndoPacific---" Disrptionist Power Intent on Destabilizing Indo Pacific Security"
In the 'Battle of Perceptions' China has lost heavily. China is widely perceived in Indo Pacific as a "Disruptionist Power Intent on Desatbilizing Indo Pacific Security".
China's uninterrupted pattern of military adventurism against its neighbors in this Century with scant regard to international conventions has contributed to this image.
China being not a 'Responsible Stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security' is a widely held geopolitical perception.
The United States needs to pay heed to this dictum in its policy approaches on China.
India Rises as Powerful Player in Indo Pacific During 2014-23
India has risen in the period under PM Modi as a powerful player in Indo Pacific security.
India's burgeoning economy, its reduction of asymmetrical differentials of military power with China, its audacious confronting China in Eastern Ladakh Galwan clashes, its reinforcing bilateral military ties in Indo Pacific and its intense military ties with United States, short of a military alliance, has awakened Indo Pacific to India's growing geopolitical power in Indo Pacific and even in Middle East.
In QUAD, India is the 'Pivotal Power' next to United States, in terms of Military Power, Nuclear Weapons, Space Programs and a credible Missiles Arsenal.
United States restructuring its 'US Pacific Command' to 'US Indo Pacific Command' is a meaningful manifestation of India's rise during 202-23.
Concluding Obserations
In geopolitics and strategy 'Perceptions" determine Major Powers regional and global standing and credibility.
Therefore, in 2023, China has lost the 'Battle of Perceptions' against the United States as the major observations briefly pointed out above indicate.
In Indo Pacific despite China's campaign to paint United States as a 'Power in Decline'. the United States to the contrary, has maintained its predominance in IndoPacific and globally too.
China despite its vast dazzling military arsenal has been unable to dislodge United States from its doorsteps in Western Pacific.
China's strategic vulnerabilities are glaringly widening, and its sluggish economy has domestic stability implications. Faint signs of a power struggle against President Xi Jinping are visible also.
India is emerging as a' Power of Substance' and contrastingly to China, also with added image of a 'Responsible Stakeholder in Indo Pacific Security'.
India could well be on the trajectory of emerging as 'Major Global Power' should PM Modi be voted back to power for a 'Third Term' as analysts predict.
Overall, it can be summed up that in the Indo Pacific, the 'Balance of Power' continues to be held by the United States, its Allies, and its Strategic Partners.
China will not be able to establish its hegemony over Asia and nor will Asian capitals "accept" a US-China Dyad for Indo Pacific security which China is pushing for encouraged by spasmodic US political outreaches, more recently seen at APEC Summit of US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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