China's military invasion of Taiwan for forcible re-unification with Communist Mainland China been viewed by strategic analysts as 'inevitable' moreso after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Admittedly, China has the intentions and the military capabilities which it has been building-up for more than a decade now. China however so far has not translated its intentions into reality. China has indulged into saber-rattling and brinkmanship to coerce Taiwan into submission.
China has visibly stopped short of an outright military invasion of Taiwan reflecting China's "Strategic Dilemmas" holding it back.
China's dilemmas range from global geopolitical reaction, US likely intervention, economic costs to China, Taiwan's formidable terrain configuration, and Tiwan's will to resist a Chinese military invasion with full- fledged offensive defense preparations.
Global geopolitical reactions will be heavily weighted against China, especially in the heavily polarized IndoPacific. China could ignore this at its peril.
United States likely military intervention in event of China's military invasion of Taiwan is a virtual certainty, irrespective of political dispensation in power in Washington. Unlike Ukraine, the United States has vital security stakes in Taiwan continuing as a linchpin in US First Line of Defense in Western Pacific.
China's economy is already sluggish and the costs of a military invasion of Taiwan, economic sanctions on China that will accrue thereafter, and considerable devastation that China could itself suffer, are serious imponderables which cannot be easily surmountable by China.
China could inflict massive destruction on Taiwan. by use of its ballistic missiles and use of air-power. But, for military invasion and occupation of Taiwan, a massive Chinese military amphibious operation would be required across the wide Taiwan Straits.
A Chinese military amphibious operation would have to run the gauntlet of a mix of potent Taiwanese missiles and air-power counterstrikes, and military counterstrikes of possible US military intervention.
Added to the above is the force-multiplier effect of Taiwan's rugged rocky coastline abounding with multiple layers of obstacles designed to impede Chinese amphibious operations against Taiwan.
Taiwan's will to resist Chinas' overlordship is best manifested by continued voting into power of Taiwanese Presidents opposed to China.
Perspectival analysis of China's strategic dilemmas in 2024 indicate that China will not attempt an outright military invasion of Taiwan in the near future. China's strategic readings of the major dilemmas sketched above would impede China from a hasty and impulsive invasion of Taiwan.
Concluding, one would however observe that like Russia's ill-fated invasion of Ukraine, similarly, Communist "Chinese 21st Century Emperor" President Xi Jinping could be tempted for doing so impelled by a misreading of United States resolve in defending Taiwan.
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