INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : CHINA REVERSES ITS PREFERENCE IN UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2024

Friday, March 8, 2024

CHINA REVERSES ITS PREFERENCE IN UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2024

China's foreign policies and strategic formulations in pursuit of President Xi Jinping's 'Great China Dream' are largely determined by the 'China Policy' formulations of the incumbent US President in the White House in Washinton DC.

In the last US Elections in 2020 in which former President Trump (R) sought re-election for a second term against present incumbent President Biden (D), China had gone all-out against re-election of President Trump.

China's campaign in United States ranged from a mix of hybrid warfare, influence operations and peddling false narratives against President Trump. Soe quarters also suspiciously viewed China having a hand in racial riots at that time.

China's hatred for President Trump was fueled by President Trump's 'Hard Line' policies on China and being the first US President to launch substantial 'Trade War' against China and technology restrictions.

Coincidently, President Trump also tightened US policy screws on Pakistan--- the only 'Natural Ally' of China.

China consequently opted for President Biden as its 'preferred' choice of the next US President in 2020.China was further impelled by the fact that Biden a s US Vice President had established good personal relationship with Xi Jinping by a number of interactions.

China succeeded in President Biden as its preferred choice in White House, but China had not bargained with President Biden's changed perspectives on China determined both by geopolitical circumstances and domestic sentiment within United States.

Within a year in office, President Biden embarked on even stiffer 'Hard Line 'policies on China with wide technology restrictions. President Biden also reinforced the US-led security template in the Western Pacific, reinvigorating QUAD and forging a new nuclear-coalition of UKUS. Needlessly to say that all of these were targeting China.

The above factors can be offered as major reason for China 'reversing' its preferences in the forthcoming US Presidential Elections in end-2024.

China, it is widely believed, now wishes to see President Biden's back and wishes and may indulge in influence-operations towards former President Trump being elected as President at the end of this year.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that in China's policy perspectives the choice lies in 'Opting for the Lesser of Two Devils' as China consistently demonizes all US Presidents for impeding the rise of 'Great China'.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister