The Russia-Iran-China (RIC) Trilateral has acquired sharper strategic contours in 2024 in the wake of ongoing war in Ukraine and the Gaza War.
In the Ukraine War ongoing since February 2023 by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia stands stalemated by Ukraine military resistance beefed - up by NATO and United States military supplies.
The Israel-Hamas War in Gaza provoked by Hamas massacre attack on Israeli civilians ongoing since October 2023, the Hamas Islamist Militia despite devastation in Gaza by Israeli offensives is offering stiff resistance beefed by military hardware and rockets ostensibly supplied by Iran.
Analytically, what is in play in both these wars is that they have emerged as proxy wars between United States and Russia with China and Iran in tow.
Reality check of the proxy wars with global implications, on joining the geopolitical and strategic dots, reveal that the RIC Trilateral is comprehensively involved on side of Russia in the Ukraine War.
China has secretly given military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine and Iran has supplied Russia with hundreds of deadly armed drones.
In the Gaza War, while direct military involvement of Russia and China is not visible but what stands out is that Iran would not have dared to encourage its proxy armed militias in the Middle East---Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in South Yemen to take on the might of Israel and United States but for unstinted geopolitical support by Russia and China to Iran and a call on their countervailing power should United States strike Iran.
Deciphering the strategic equations within RIC Trilateral what emerges is that Russia and China are in virtual military alliance, Iran has a long-standing strategic relationship with Russia, and China has induced Iran into a 25-Year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
Russia, Iran and China in 2024 are individually and collectively seen as 'States Adversarial to United States'. Russia and China are global nuclear weapons and military Powers and Iran is the predominant Regional Power in the Middle East with a nascent nuclear weapons arsenal.
Geostrategically, the RIC Trilateral has Russia and China encompassing the vast Eurasian Heartland and Iran dominating the Middle East with the entire Eastern Littoral of The Gulf lying within Iran.
Overall, the RIC Trilateral with more security cohesiveness emerges as a "formidable" geopolitical and geostrategic entity.
Policy implications for India arising from the RIC Trilateral in 2024 need to be contextually viewed in light of India's existing relationships with these three Powers,
India has a long -standing strategic relationship with Russia but the original sheen has worn off due to India's growing strategic proximity with United States.
China and India are in a state of intense and explosive military confrontation. Deep strategic distrust pervades the relations.
India and Iran have enjoyed good relations and even a strategic partnership agreement exists.
Looking at short-term and even middle-term perspectives no optimistic indicators can be foreseen of any normalization of relations between the RIC Trilateral and the United States.
On the contrary, one can visualize and expect those unfolding geopolitical developments in Europe, Middle East and IndoPacific could only widen the confrontation chasm between RIC Trilateral and United States and its Allies and strategic partners.
In the above scenario, challenging policy implications arise for the Indian foreign policy establishment.
Russia debilitated by Ukraine War is being reduced to 'Team B' status in the Russia-China military alliance. Iran will circumstantially be forced to move into a closer strategic embrace of China.
With the above dynamics predominating, nether Russia nor Iran will have the policy bandwidth to have their erstwhile good working relationships with India, independent of the 'China Factor' dominating the RIC Trilateral.
Would India still continue with its foreign policy obsession of multi-dimensional or multipolar?
What would be India's stance should Russia go to war with United States and NATO? President Putin on his recent re-election for another six-year term has warned of a Nuclear World War III. China has asserted that should NATO attack Russia, China will aid Russia.
In the above context, on behalf of RIC Trilateral, Iran can be assessed to open a third front in the Gulf and Middle East aided by its proxy militias already in action.
In the above scenario, would India stand aside and profess neutrality when a catastrophic World War engulfs the entire globe.
Prudence would demand that India reset its foreign policy postulations with regard to Russia and Iran and the potential of these two Powers growing more subservient to China's interests which clash with India's security interest.
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