INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : ASEAN AS SOUTHEAST ASIA REGIONAL GROUPING AT STRATEGIC CROSSROADS ON CHINA--ASSERT OR LOSE CENTRALITY

Sunday, December 24, 2023

ASEAN AS SOUTHEAST ASIA REGIONAL GROUPING AT STRATEGIC CROSSROADS ON CHINA--ASSERT OR LOSE CENTRALITY

ASEAN as a regional organization of Southeast Nations stands in2023 at strategic crossroads wherein its dithering and dichotomous stands on 'China Threat' threatens "ASEAN Centrality" in Indo Pacific Security geopolitical dynamics and so also its own vibrancy as a regional economic grouping with security underpinnings.

Geopolitically, wherein IndoPacific Region has already acquired bipolar overtones, ASEAN cannot pretend that it should not be forced to take sides in the ongoing power tussle between a belligerent China and US-led 'Coalition of Democracies.

China under President Xi Jinping on switching to muscular 'Hard Power' approaches on its peripheries targeted ASEAN Nations Vietnam and Philippines as its targets for aggression and military occupation of Vietnamese and Filipino islands in South China Sea.

China's aggression against ASEAN member nations instead of united outright condemnation by ASEAN as the regional grouping was muted and impassive emboldening China to continue its aggressive brinkmanship in South China Sea where in addition to Vietnam and Philippines, the Muslim nations of ASEAN, namely, Indonesia and Malaysia whose littorals in South China Sea are now being threatened by Chinese expanding c claims in South China Sea.

Can Indonesia and Malaysia now similarly threatened by China not change their ambiguous policies on China Threat, and as major Nations of ASEAN take a 'United ASEAN Stand' to oppose Chia's depredations in South China Sea?

China stood emboldened by lack of unity within ASEAN in opposing China and exploited the divisions. Major Muslim ASEAN Nations, Indonesia and Malaysia chose to 'sit on the fence' till recently when China impinged on their sovereignty by extending China's arbitrary 'Nine Dash Line' in the South China Sea.

China brazenly defied the Hague Tribunal Award in favor of Philippines declaring Chinese claims on South China Sea as invalid. China also adopted dilatory tactics in agreeing to a common Code of Conduct in South China Sea pursued by ASEAN Nations to prevent conflict.

ASEAN Nations despite notable geopolitical and strategic changes in Western Pacific like US-led QUAD and AUKUS and reinforcing of bilateral security cooperation of countries opposed to unbridled China Threat manifestations have still chosen to remain impassive on China.

Persistently analyzed in strategic community is that ASEAN Nations do not want to be forced to take sides in the inevitability of a looming US-China conflict.

ASEAN Nations do not seem to have come out with any strong condemnations of China's recent military "bullying" of the Philippines in South China Sea.

China is smarting under Philippines intensified security relationships with the United States and India. India recently contracted to supply three batteries of its BEAHMOS Cruise Missiles to Philippines.

ASEAN as a Southeast Asia Regional Grouping with implicit regional security underpinnings is at strategic crossroads on China. The moot question that arises is whether ASEAN Nations can put up a 'United Front' against China's aggression selectively applied against individual ASEAN Nations.

In Conclusion, simple language, the strategic choice facing ASEAN in 2023 as a regional grouping is: "ASSERT ON CHINA THREAT or LOSE ASEAN'S CENTRALTY" in global geopolitics, Indo Pacific security dynamics and its internal cohesion as a Southeast Asia Regional Grouping.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister