Pakistan's 'Cliffhanger Fragility' precariously hanging on the edge of complete meltdown impacts Indo Pacific security not only by virtue of its location on Western Flanks of Indo Pacific Security Template and India (QUAD'S Pivotal Partner), but moreso because of United States' lingering Pakistan-centric strategic obsession.
Pakistan's dubious strategic company of PRIC--Pakistan-Russia-Iran-China Quartet and the dangers posed by this Quartet were highlighted in my post of February 2023.
PRIC Nations are markedly adversarial to United States and the danger posed by them is that all of them possess Nuclear Weapons Arsenals. Contrastingly, within QUAD, only United States and India possess nuclear weapons.
The United States still mistakenly. believes that Pakistan can be retrieved to within the American strategic orbit. A 'Strategic Reality Check' by US policy planners would indicate that it is delusionary to think so.
Pointed out in my earlier analyses was the fact that with China's 'Colonial Grip' over Pakistan, no bandwidth exists for Pakistan to escape China's vice-like grip, even if Pakistan wants to wriggle out of it.
China, however, is pragmatic, in that if Pakistan tumbles down the cliff into a 'complete meltdown' , China analytically will not save Pakistan from a 'Meltdown Disaster'.
The United States despite machinations of President Nixon and his Secretary of State Kissinger could not prevent Pakistan's "fragmentation" in 1971 when United States was all-powerful, and Pakistan was a trusted US ally.
In 2023, the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape in Southwest Asia is disconcerting for the United States as follow-up events in wake of ongoing Israel-Hamas War in Gaza suggest.
Pakistan and its fellow-PRIC nations perceptively view United States as a 'Declining Power' under adversarial siege by China's military and economic power.
PRIC nations are against Israel and are seconding Iran's proxy war in the Middle East through its armed militias, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Pakistan in 2023 as China's 'Frontline State' and a strategic vassal of China perceives that China's countervailing power combined with Iran and Russia makes it less vulnerable to any United States coercive policies.
Pakistan's value to PRIC is that today it is the only Islamic Nation with Nuclear Weapons and that Pakistan's "disruptive quotient" to US security interest is high.
In 2023, with Pakistan decidedly out of US Strategic Orbit, with its 'State Meltdown' an overhanging possibility, what chances does United States has in preventing a "Second Fragmentation" of Pakistan?
Should the United States still persist in delusionary policies of retrieving Pakistan from its terminal decline, the United States could face the irreparable loss from its strategic fold of its most "Pivotal Partner" India in IndoPacific Security Template.
Chia and Pakistan figure as 'Enemy States' in Indian threat perceptions and overwhelmingly in eyes of Indian public opinion.
In today's age of 'Perceptional Wars' can United States afford risking Indian public opinion with policies suggestive of "Dancing with the Wolves" with 'softening-up' on the "China Threat" and bolstering up India's most inveterate enemy---Pakistan?
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