South Asia power dynamics till 2025 were largely determined by the interplay of power rivalries between India and the China-Pakistan with United States thrown-in as an oscillating factor.
China's strong strategic and concubinage colonial hold over Pakistan Army as the 'controlling factor' of Pakistan's foreign policy was a consistent "constant" ever since 1962, arising from their mutual objective of applying 'strategic restraint' on India and its rise as the predominant regional power.
The South Asia Power Dynamics Template stands considerably changed in second half of 2025 with India unshackling its traditional concerns of China-Pakistan Axis coming in play forcefully.
India's Op SINDOOR decisive punitive strikes crippling Pakistan's offensive capabilities coupled with strikes on its major terrorist infrastructure, within the space of thirty minutes in May 2025 forced Pakistan Army to sue for peace changed South Asia power dynamics. China unlike in the past did not issue any military 'ultimatums' to India.
Notably, geopolitically and militarily strong India backed by its sizeable economic power crafted during 2014-25 period, under the Modi Government, felt emboldened to call Pakistan Army's bluff of Nuclear War retaliation coupled with Pakistan Army's over-reliance on China-Pakistan Axis being actively operationalized in the event of war with India.
Strategic Reality Check of South Asia power dynamics, in second half of 2025, backed by following indicators call into question the strategic relevance of China-Pakistan Axis to both China and Pakistan: (1) China-Pakistan Axis operationalization was restricted to China sharing real-time intelligence on Indian military operations (2) Pakistan militarily "Crippled" by India's decapacitating military strikes turned to United States for restraining India and not China (3) India had achieved all its war-aims within thirty minutes and much before United States could even decode what was happening and decide on any intervention decision (4) India in the run-up to Op SINDOOR launching had clearly indicated to United States its firm intentions.
Post-Op SINDOOR, geopolitical events in South Asia further buttressing India's predominance as the Regional Power in South Asia need enumerating (1) Afghanistan's Taliban Government moves strategically closer to India (2) Nepal's pro-Chinese Communist Government is swept out of power by popular upsurge (3) Sri Lanka pivots towards India (4) Maldives adopts India-friendly political moves.
When the above 'Strategic Reality Check' and South Asia geopolitical events are superimposed on ongoing violent political disturbances in Pakistan's Heartland, Pakistan's Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunawa provinces in revolt, and Pakistan in virtual war situations with Neighbors on both Western and Eastern Flanks, should not China be reviewing and recasting its South Asia policies template?
China reviewing its policies lately can be read by joining the dots of the BRICS Tianjin Summit and some movement in political outreach to India. China needs to exhibit much more to accept India as the South Asia 'Reginal Power' and cede the Indian Subcontinent as India's natural 'Area of Influence'.
Concluding, one can assert that China cannot for long continue to cling to the strategic belief that Pakistan is a strategic asset for China and that the China-Pakistan Axis can restrain India's rise.
Contemporary unfolding geopolitical and economic realities, and Pakistan's potential fragmentation inevitability, will force China to abandon Pakistan.
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