ASEAN AS SOUTHEAST ASIA REGIONAL GROUPING AT STRATEGIC CROSSROADS ON CHINA--ASSERT OR LOSE CENTRALITY

ASEAN as a regional organization of Southeast Nations stands in2023 at strategic crossroads wherein its dithering and dichotomous stands on 'China Threat' threatens "ASEAN Centrality" in Indo Pacific Security geopolitical dynamics and so also its own vibrancy as a regional economic grouping with security underpinnings.

Geopolitically, wherein IndoPacific Region has already acquired bipolar overtones, ASEAN cannot pretend that it should not be forced to take sides in the ongoing power tussle between a belligerent China and US-led 'Coalition of Democracies.

China under President Xi Jinping on switching to muscular 'Hard Power' approaches on its peripheries targeted ASEAN Nations Vietnam and Philippines as its targets for aggression and military occupation of Vietnamese and Filipino islands in South China Sea.

China's aggression against ASEAN member nations instead of united outright condemnation by ASEAN as the regional grouping was muted and impassive emboldening China to continue its aggressive brinkmanship in South China Sea where in addition to Vietnam and Philippines, the Muslim nations of ASEAN, namely, Indonesia and Malaysia whose littorals in South China Sea are now being threatened by Chinese expanding c claims in South China Sea.

Can Indonesia and Malaysia now similarly threatened by China not change their ambiguous policies on China Threat, and as major Nations of ASEAN take a 'United ASEAN Stand' to oppose Chia's depredations in South China Sea?

China stood emboldened by lack of unity within ASEAN in opposing China and exploited the divisions. Major Muslim ASEAN Nations, Indonesia and Malaysia chose to 'sit on the fence' till recently when China impinged on their sovereignty by extending China's arbitrary 'Nine Dash Line' in the South China Sea.

China brazenly defied the Hague Tribunal Award in favor of Philippines declaring Chinese claims on South China Sea as invalid. China also adopted dilatory tactics in agreeing to a common Code of Conduct in South China Sea pursued by ASEAN Nations to prevent conflict.

ASEAN Nations despite notable geopolitical and strategic changes in Western Pacific like US-led QUAD and AUKUS and reinforcing of bilateral security cooperation of countries opposed to unbridled China Threat manifestations have still chosen to remain impassive on China.

Persistently analyzed in strategic community is that ASEAN Nations do not want to be forced to take sides in the inevitability of a looming US-China conflict.

ASEAN Nations do not seem to have come out with any strong condemnations of China's recent military "bullying" of the Philippines in South China Sea. 

China is smarting under Philippines intensified security relationships with the United States and India. India recently contracted to supply three batteries of its BEAHMOS Cruise Missiles to Philippines.

ASEAN as a Southeast Asia Regional Grouping with implicit regional security underpinnings is at strategic crossroads on China. The moot question that arises is whether ASEAN Nations can put up a 'United Front' against China's aggression selectively applied against individual ASEAN Nations.

In Conclusion, simple language, the strategic choice facing ASEAN in 2023 as a regional grouping is: "ASSERT ON CHINA THREAT or LOSE ASEAN'S CENTRALTY" in global geopolitics, Indo Pacific security dynamics and its internal cohesion as a Southeast Asia Regional Grouping.

UNITED STATES 2023 IMPERATIVES TO DISPENSE WITH "STRTEGIC AMBIGUITY" ON TAIWAN'S FORCEFUL ANNEXTAION BY COMMUNIST CHINA

The Indo Pacific security environment in 2023 stands unprecedently threatened by the persistent propensity of Chinese President Xi Jinping to generate strategic turbulence emanating from the exponential rise in China's military arsenal. 

President Xi's propensity for provocative armed conflicts on China's peripheries commenced with establishing 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over South China Sea during 2013-2022 and thereafter undisguised threats of 'Military Reunification of Taiwan with Mainland'.

The year 2023 has been marked with high-voltage political and military coercion by Xi's China spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine notwithstanding United States implicit policy of military strengthening of Taiwan's capacity to defend itself against Communist Chinese aggression.

Chinese President Xi's brazen threats of military annexation of Taiwan stem from the "Strategic Ambiguity" policies on Taiwan that United States adopted ever since President Nixon under misguided prodding of his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who "Mortgaged US Security Interests to China" hoping to de-link China from Former Soviet Union.

United States such impulses resulted in Taiwan Relations Act (April 1979) whose end result was United States breaking of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and scrapping the 25-year-old US-Taiwan Mutual Defense Treaty which was a US Shield for Taiwan against Communist China thus far.

Fast forward to 2023, despite China's open 'Taiwan Invasion Threats' the United States has not displayed any indicators in adopting "Dissuasion and Compellance" strategies to impose deterrence on China's aggressive impulses on Taiwan.

United States problem in this direction lies on American reluctance to dispense with its 'Strategic Ambiguity' on Taiwan. 

In 2023, the looming China Threat in Indo Pacific palpably felt from South Korea to India and more intensely focused on Taiwan springs strategic imperatives for United States to manifest "Strategic Clarity" in terms of its firm intentions to militarily intervene in event of Communist China's military invasion of Taiwan.

US President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken have recently made the right noises in this direction, but these are not enough to deter China and China's 21st Century Emperor.

The US self-imposed restraints in Taiwan Relations Act have outlived their strategic utility. These restraints are no longer valid as China has not reciprocated US hopes of Cross-Strait's security and stability of Taiwan's security.

On the contrary, China stands further emboldened by these self-imposed US restraints shackles.  

The United States needs three forceful steps in this direction, namely, (1) Renounce US "One China Policy; (2) Establish Full Diplomatic Relations with Taiwan (3) Sign a US-Taiwan Mutual Security Treaty forthwith.

Concluding, the above steps will not only deter China from Taiwan's Military Invasion but also galvanize Indo Pacific Nations more solidly to back US-led Indo Pacific Security Template "assured" of United States determination to checkmate the all-encompassing China Theat.

"Strategic Ambiguity" is a weapon of less powerful Nations as a policy ploy and therefore does not behoove the United States as the only globally powerful Nation. 

PAKISTAN'S CLIFFHANGER FRAGILITY IMPACTS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY CHIEFLY BECAUSE OF UNITED STATES LINGERING PAKISTAN-CENTRIC OBSESSION

Pakistan's 'Cliffhanger Fragility' precariously hanging on the edge of complete meltdown impacts Indo Pacific security not only by virtue of its location on Western Flanks of Indo Pacific Security Template and India (QUAD'S Pivotal Partner), but moreso because of United States' lingering Pakistan-centric strategic obsession.

Pakistan's dubious strategic company of PRIC--Pakistan-Russia-Iran-China Quartet and the dangers posed by this Quartet were highlighted in my post of February 2023.

PRIC Nations are markedly adversarial to United States and the danger posed by them is that all of them possess Nuclear Weapons Arsenals. Contrastingly, within QUAD, only United States and India possess nuclear weapons.

The United States still mistakenly. believes that Pakistan can be retrieved to within the American strategic orbit. A 'Strategic Reality Check' by US policy planners would indicate that it is delusionary to think so.

 Pointed out in my earlier analyses was the fact that with China's 'Colonial Grip' over Pakistan, no bandwidth exists for Pakistan to escape China's vice-like grip, even if Pakistan wants to wriggle out of it.

China, however, is pragmatic, in that if Pakistan tumbles down the cliff into a 'complete meltdown' , China analytically will not save Pakistan from a 'Meltdown Disaster'.

The United States despite machinations of President Nixon and his Secretary of State Kissinger could not prevent Pakistan's "fragmentation" in 1971 when United States was all-powerful, and Pakistan was a trusted US ally. 

In 2023, the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape in Southwest Asia is disconcerting for the United States as follow-up events in wake of ongoing Israel-Hamas War in Gaza suggest.

Pakistan and its fellow-PRIC nations perceptively view United States as a 'Declining Power' under adversarial siege by China's military and economic power. 

PRIC nations are against Israel and are seconding Iran's proxy war in the Middle East through its armed militias, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Pakistan in 2023 as China's 'Frontline State' and a strategic vassal of China perceives that China's countervailing power combined with Iran and Russia makes it less vulnerable to any United States coercive policies.

Pakistan's value to PRIC is that today it is the only Islamic Nation with Nuclear Weapons and that Pakistan's "disruptive quotient" to US security interest is high.

In 2023, with Pakistan decidedly out of US Strategic Orbit, with its 'State Meltdown' an overhanging possibility, what chances does United States has in preventing a "Second Fragmentation" of Pakistan?

Should the United States still persist in delusionary policies of retrieving Pakistan from its terminal decline, the United States could face the irreparable loss from its strategic fold of its most "Pivotal Partner" India in IndoPacific Security Template.

Chia and Pakistan figure as 'Enemy States' in Indian threat perceptions and overwhelmingly in eyes of Indian public opinion. 

In today's age of 'Perceptional Wars' can United States afford risking Indian public opinion with policies suggestive of   "Dancing with the Wolves" with 'softening-up' on the "China Threat" and bolstering up India's most inveterate enemy---Pakistan?

INDIA-ANUSTRALIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NOVEMBER 2023 AT NEW DELHI ADDS SALIENCE TO COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

 The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Australia acquires enhanced salience in November 2023 when analyzed contextually against the failed November outcomes of US-China APEC Sideline Summit between Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping and visit of Australian PM Albanese to China.

Chinese President refused to oblige both United States and Australia on their "expected deliverables" in terms of Indo Pacific Security.

In the last five years strategic, military and economic cooperation between India and Australia has intensified considerably impelled by the increasing belligerence of China in disrupting Indo Pacific security.

China's ever-increasing belligerence in Indo Pacific seriously impacts the legitimate security interests of both India and Australia in the region.

Geopolitically, India and Australia besides their comprehensive bilateral security linkages are intertwined in the multilateral QUAD Security Initiative and jointly cooperating with United States and Japan in capacity-building of Southeast Asia nations like the Philippines to withstand the predatory China Threat.

QUAD Nations are committed to maintain a "Free and Open Indo Pacific both in maritime domains and Overflights" and maintaining stability in the Indo Pacific region.

Geoeconomically, India and Australia to cement their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership have signed a Free Trade Agreement which will take much of the slack of China restricting Australian imports. This FTA gives duty-free access to each other's markets and is a landmark agreement. 

Geo strategically, the enhanced military exchanges between India and Australia need to be viewed in the context of the respective geostrategic weight in Indo Pacific security.

India dominates the India Ocean and with legitimate security interests in Western Pacific. Australia dominates the Southern Pacific and the Eastern Segment of the Indian Ocean. Like India, Australia has legitimate security interests in Western Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Needless to add that the palpable China Threat to India and Australia in their contiguous IndoPacific regions provides strategic convergences for both these Major Indo Pacific nations to forge a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to position an 'Existential Counterweight' to the China Threat, even if not so articulated officially.

The Inda-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue held in November 2023 ended on optimistic notes indicated by the official statements of both the Indian Ministers and the Australian Ministers,

India was represented by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar, Australia was represented by Deputy PM an Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

India and Australia have already signed a Logistics Memorandum of Understanding granting access to each other's logistics facilities to their Navies and Air Forces. Joint military exercises have increased.

A defence Science & Technology Agreement also exists which promotes cooperation in defence technologies with each other.

Notably a Civil Nuclear Agreement permits Australian mining companies to export Uranium to India.

Analytically, it can be assumed that when such proximate Strategic Partnerships are forged and mature, then close cooperation between Intelligence Agencies and intelligence-sharing is a natural outcome. This would be truer in case of intelligence on China.

Superimposed over these are a host of Ministerial Dialogues, consultative mechanisms and increasing people to people contacts. It is reported that the Indian expatriate population in Australia is about a million now.

Contextually therefore, terms of future perspectives, it can be safely asserted that the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Australia is destined to intensify and deepen with evolving shared perspectives on Indo Pacific security and as Australian and American political and economic outreaches to China are rebuffed. 

Independent of the 'China Factor' there is much that unites India and Australia in terms of shared military history, shared values and democratic institutions and their respective geostrategic and geoeconomic weight.

APEC 2023 SIDELINE SUMMIT OF AMERICAN & CHINESE PRESIDENTS YIELDS N GAME-CAHNGERS ON CONFLICTUAL ISUES

Expectedly, the APEX 2023 Sideline Summit at San Francisco on November 15, between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a tepid Apex Meet, despite nearly a year-long preparatory effort by US Cabinet -level officials.

Noticeably, Chinese President was vocal on Plaet Earth being big enough for both United States and China as Global Powers to coexist and that China was ready to partner with United States.

The above allusion seems to echo what then US President Obama made of a US-China 'Global Dyad', which was globally rejected.

That no major breakthroughs emerged at the Summit on major conflictual issues, reflects the extreme 'Strategic Distrust' that continues to pervade US-China relations.

If the measure of political successes of such Sideline Summits at U-China apex level can only be measured by 'small niblings' then restoration of US-China military ties, Drugs Control cooperation, dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and increase in aviation flights were the only achievement.

Taiwan continues to divide United States and China more intensely as China has intensified military and political coercion. China did not hold out any guarantees that United States desired to lower the brinkmanship.

Some had expected that on South China Sea, some Maritime Control format may emerge. It has not been so.

On the major global crisis in November2023, the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States asked China to prevail over Iran to restrain both Hamas and Hezbollah, both Iran's proxy armed militias.

Similarly, North Korea issue which is major concern for US Allies, Japan and South Korea, no observations were made by the Chinese President at the Summit.

Surprisingly, no reports have emanated whether Russian Invasion of Ukraine, now nearly two years old, was discussed by the two Presidents. Though, the United States has been broaching with China that it was China that is continuing the lifelines for Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The United Staes has not obliged China with any removal of high-technology restrictions which Chinese President did mention during the Summit.

Therefore, the only major takeaway from this Summit can be analyzed as 'Risk Reduction' which would emanate from direct military-to-military contacts and at apex level in terms of crisis.

Concluding, even 'Risk Reduction' having been achieved is debatable, as China by available indicators is in no mood to oblige President Biden in a presidential election year. 

Similarly, US President Biden, with an intensifying 'Hard Line' sentiment against China prevailing in United States across the entire political spectrum, could only indulge in what can best be termed as 'China Management'. No China demanded concessions conceded.

   

SIDELINES SUMMIT BETWEEN US PRESIDENT BIDEN & CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING AT APEC 2023 MEET: PROSPECTS

The APEC Meet underway in San Francisco is being avidly watched as US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to have a Summit Meet on November 15, on the sidelines of this otherwise Asia Pacific economic grouping which has no security component.

In terms of prospects, no major breakthroughs can be expected in the frosty US-China relations now spanning two different US Presidents.

At best, both the American and Chinese Presidents, would strive to restore some normalcy in the tense and conflictual confrontation that exists in the Indo Pacific between a conflictual propensity-prone China and a US-led security architecture checkmating China.

US-China economic relations also are strained by multiple economic sanctions and technology restrictions imposed by United States in response to many Chinese security provocations in Asia Pacific.

Prospective analysis in terms of which of the two Nations---United States or China comes with more strength-full leverages to the Sidelines Summit, one would assert that it is the United States.

The United States displayed that despite its strategic distractions in Ukraine and Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States has the will and strength to play the dominant role in Indo Pacific.

China globally stands in the wrong corner over Ukraine by siding with Russia and so also in the Gaza War by siding with Hamas because of China's security relationship with Iran.

The US economy under President Biden has been resilient whereas the Chinese economy under President Xi Jinping has entered a sluggish curve.

Prospectively therefore, one can expect United States and China to agree to cosmetic changes to restore security and military-to-military communication link;, the United States holding stronger cards will not come out with any game-changer strategic or economic concessions to indulge China.

UNITED STATES-INDIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NEW DELHI NOVEMBER 2023 : CAN INDIA MEASURE UP TO AMERICAM EXPECTATIONS?

The 5th US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue due to start on November 10, 2023, acquires significant geopolitical contours when analyzed in context of two ongoing major armed conflicts going on in Ukraine and Gaza in which the United States is involved in a major way.

The United States would expect from India as its "Key Strategic Partner" to adopt more "Key, Notable & Substantive" geopolitical and security postures contributive to US national security interests in the Middle East conflict contingencies. 

Can India with its preferred fixations on multipolarity as a foreign policy precept measure up to United States expectations?

Initially, it needs to be highlighted that the very basis of evolution of the now so-titled and so -evolved over two decades   US-India Global Comprehensive Stategic Partnership is shared strategic convergences on major global issues threatening global and regional security.

Major ongoing armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza War threaten both regional and global security and peace. This strategic reality is not open to differing interpretations.  

Unlike in Ukraine Invasion by Russia, the United States has reacted with major military deployments of US Forces as pre-emptive measures by Iran to escalate and enlarge the war on Israel. The United States is intensely committed to security of Israel.

Iran has merged as a major actor against the United States not only with its nuclear weapons arsenal but also weaponizing Islamist Armed Militias like Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah operating in Southern Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.

These Iran -controlled Armed Militias are heavily armed and in possession of Rockets arsenals. Hamas and Hezbollah plague Israel security with a Two Front Threat. They also undermine US security interests in Middle East in favor of Iran.

The lurking danger in November 2023 is that Iran may be sucked into escalating this War against Israel and United States, as prospects increase of Hamas being liquidated by Israel.

In the above eventuality, India faces serious policy predicaments which can best be summed-up in the following questions: (1) Can India strategically afford to adopt a neutral stand in an escalated war in which United States could be sucked-in? (2) Is India ready to dispense with its fairly good relationship with Iran drawn into a War with United States and Israel? (3) Would India be in a position to withstand the geopolitical and economic costs of adopting a neutral stance in the event of a Middle East War?

India has unlike the Ukraine Invasion, surprisingly but realistically, taken a clear stand by PM Modi asserting that "India stands with Israel". India has not adopted an ambiguous stand when it came to Israel when contrasted with that of Ukraine.

Therefore, if India has asserted that it stands with Israe and the United State is committed to Isreal's security and existence at all costs, it is logical that India's policy adoptions in event of war in Middle East would be congruent with that of the United States "Short of committing troops on the ground".

The United States on the eve of the Meet has officially declared that it is for India to make its decisions.

Hopefully, India would be able to rise up to United States expectations by fulfilling provisions of all the US-India Defence Arrangements signed like BECA, COMCASA and more notably LEMOA. 

 

 

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON CHINA'S MILITARY BRINKMANSHIP IN INDO PACIFIC REGION 2023

Russia's strategic diminution in the wake of its stalemated ill-advised invasion of Ukraine can be analyzed as robbing China of much of China's fire-spitting aggressive brinkmanship in Indo Pacific, noticeably evident with Chinese Foreign Minister's dash to Washington and overtures to US for restoration of military ties.

Till last month, all roads led to Beijing with a flurry of visits by top US Biden Administration officials including Secretary of State Blinken and Commerce Secretary to China.

This trend now seems to have been reversed with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi dash to Washington for talks with Secretary of State Blinken and even a brief meet with President Biden.

China has advanced reasons for above as preparatory moves for possible Chinese President Xi Jinping's participation in APEC Summit in San Francisco in November 2023.

Couple of years back, in my South Asia Analysis Papers, I had analyzed how China and Russia as a concretized Russia-China Axis contributed to secure their respective 'rear flanks' in confrontation with United States & Allies.

Firmly believe that in 2023 and beyond, with Russia's strategic diminution and economic sluggishness due to Ukraine war-costs, Russia like yesteryears, stands enfeebled to provide that 'rear-flank' security cover to China's military confrontations with US &Allies/Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific Region, as visible in end-2023.

Resulting from the above, what are China's options in Indo Pacific?

China cannot afford to "lose face" in Indo Pacific by a climbdown in its aggressive confrontation with the United States both for external reasons and more significantly for domestic political reasons.

So how does China script its strategic stances in 2024 and beyond?

In my assessment, China will adopt a two-pronged strategy "copying" United States current China-strategy of operating on two planes. 

China at the global level would like to be perceived as United States 'strategic-equal' by striking reasonable strategic postures with United States and at on a second lower plane resorting to intensification of its military confrontation for 'optical photo-ops' against Japan, India and the Philippines.

Contextually, the above China-perceived strategy is likely to "misfire" when in US strategic circles the majority debate suggest that United States is now capable of "Combatting Two and a Half Military Threats".

This includes dealing with two major threats of Russia and China and a possible military contingency elsewhere.

China much to its regret, has also to factor-in the reality that within the United States there persists bipartisan support for strong and firm US 'Hard Line' policies on China.

The above is conclusively reflected in China-policy assertions made by US Presidential Probables, both Democratic and Republican.

Hence, US Presidential Election year offers no solace to China in terms of US China-policy. China can be expected, however, to resort to Hybrid Warfare strategies within USA as it did in last presidential elections.

China's past historical record illustrates that China will not be deterred by any of the above factors working against it. 

China with a 'Compulsive Reflex Syndrome' can be expected to plunge the Indo Pacific Region in 2024 into more strategic disruptions by aggressive predatory moves!!!

UNITED STATES MUST GUARD AGAINST STRATEGIC NAIIVETY IN SUCCUMBING TO CHINA'S OVERTURES TO RE-ESTABLISH MILITARY RELATIONS

Contextually, when the United States is not geopolitically or strategically beleaguered either by Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the Hamas-Israel War on Gaza, or, even by China's continued predatory moves in South China Sea, it would be the height of United States strategic naivety to succumb to China's overtures to re-establish military relations.

China is currently engaged in such overtures holding out the carrot of an Xi-Biden Meet on the sidelines of the forthcoming APEC Meet in San Francisco.

US President Biden unexpectedly opted for even a more strident 'Hard Line' policies on China than his predecessor President Trump and put China on notice that strong bi-partisan support exists within United States against China for constantly undermining US national security interests.

It was on the strength of strong bipartisan support within United States on Hard-Line policies on China that encouraged Indo Pacific nations to team-up with United States against a commonly perceived China Threat.

Then what is prompting the United States to lose the 'Perceptional War' against China by seemingly cozying-up to China when it is China that is more beleaguered geopolitically arising from its unconditional support of Russia over Ukraine?

In 2023, a larger part of the world except Islamic countries are lined up in support of the United States than behind Russia or China.

The United States would be utterly strategically naive if its policy establishment assesses that by restoring military relations with China, the United States may be able to wean China away from its Russian embrace.

The United States must recognize that in terms of United States long-term national security interests it is 'strategically wise' for United States to wean away Russia from China's strategic embrace than persisting in US flawed policy-aims of weaning away China from Russia.

The United States must seriously debate the perceptional strategic losses that would accrue to United States on QUAD and other nations in Indo Pacific of any perceptional shifts to "rehabilitate" China in its policy formulations at this stage.

Pointed out repeatedly in my writings on US-China relations for two decades was a singular warning that United States cannot adopt a 'two-level' China-policy, At the first level raising the scepter of a China Threat amongst Indo Pacific countries to join the US-led posse against China and concurrently at the second level cozying-up to China because of its misperceived and flawed Russia-policy.

For Indo Pacific nations, it is China that is a more live and potent threat than Russia. This applies more significantly to Japan and India.

The United States has to strategically choose between 'respecting the strategic sensitivities' of the main pillars of its Indo Pacific Security Edifice or succumbing in strategic naivety to Chinese overtures whose end-aim is to drive wedges between United States and Japan and India.

China is a 'sworn enemy 'of the United States as much as it is of Japan and India. The United States in 2023 or beyond has no strategic bandwidth to re-indulge in China Hedging policies of yester years. 

 America 'take your pick'!!

 

PHILIPPINES IN CHINA'S MILITARY CROSSHAIRS BECAUSE OF UNITED STATES AND INDIA

China lately has intensified its military coercion of the Philippines in and around islands/ reefs claimed by it in Philippines territorial waters in South China Sea after years of feigned friendship with the Philippines.

Departing from his predecessor President Duterte's pro-China policy, incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr Ferdinand on assuming presidency in June 2022 has tried to balance relations with China but with a noticeable tilt towards the United States.

President Marcos Jr in initial stages of his presidency made a visit to China hoping that China would keep the peace with the Philippines. However, he has made two trips to the United States in an effort to add substance to the existing US-Philippines Mutual Security Treaty which had over the years become rusty due to past Presidents.

President Marcos Jr seeking security guarantees from United States was impelled by China's deliberate actions to prevent re-supply of its garrisons on shoals in South China Sea by aggressive cations of Chinese Coast Guard ships.

China's latest provocation against the Philippines has been the release of its New Map which extends China's Nine -Dash Line imposed by it in South China sea even further to include additional control over Philippines maritime sovereignty.

It needs to be recalled that based on Philippines complaint, the International Hague Tribunal had dismissed China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea. But China continues to defy the ruling and has embarked on heightened provocations in South China Sea.

The Philippines now finds itself more pointedly in China's military crosshairs because President Marcos Jr has doubled the access of US Military Forces to nine Filipino military bases, including some in the North facing Taiwan. 

Additionally, during present tenure of President Marcos Jr large scale Joint Military Exercises between US Forces and Philippines Armed Forces have taken place in the Philippines.

While the avowed aim of these Joint US-Philippines Military Exercises was said to dwell on 'Conter-insurgency operations', it should be apparent that the main aim is to develop interoperability to meet perceived threat from China.

US President Biden recently committed the United States to militarily assist the Philippines in event of any aggression against its sovereignty.

India like the Philippines has been the victim of Chinese aggression on its land borders with China Occupied Tibet, cartographic aggression in the same New Maps of China and China's more than intrusive presence in the Indian Ocean.

The Philippines finds itself additionally in China's military crosshairs because of India's political and military reachout to Philippines arising from India's 'Act East' policy.

India's security ties with the Philippines have intensified with India having agreed to supply the Philippines with 3x Batteries of the dreaded BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles, posting of a Defence Attache in Manila and the Philippines expressing interest in additional Brahmos Missiles Batteries along with other defence hardware.

The significance of India supplying the Philippines with BRAHMOS Missiles has not been lost on China and hence its annoyance manifested in increased provocative military actions against the Philippines.

In Conclusion, it needs to be stressed that while no formal declared synergy has taken place between the United States and India to jointly indulge in military 'capacity-building' of the Philippines, but the coincidence is there. 

And, that coincidence of United States and India is not lost on China and hence the Philippines finds itself in intensified military crosshairs of China.

CHINA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY COERCIVE CAPABILITIES AGAINST INDIA VISIBLY LIMITED IN 2023

 China noted since 1949 as an aggressive proponent of political and military coercion against its peripheral neighbors has visibly found that in 2023 that India under Modi Regime since 2014 is no longer a 'political or military pushover' State.

In this 2014-23 period, India has exorcised the 'Ghosts of 1962 Military Debacle' then imposed by timid political leadership. India in this same period went into an overdrive to reduce its military asymmetries with China on its Northern Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

India's Galwan Military Standoff in 2020 preceded by Dokalam Military Standoff of 2017 were 'Turning Points' in the decades of India cowing down timidly under Chinese military aggression and coercion.

During Galwan 2020 in Ladakh, India mobilized and deployed more than 50,000 troops with tanks, APCs and heavy artillery. All these massive deployments in a High- Altitude terrain stood backed by considerable IAF offensive air power and air transport mobility. 

India's robust political and military responses to China's creeping aggression and coercion now empowered by rapid developing of strategic roads network and Forward Bases for Indian Air Force have lowered the threshold for Chinese military coercion.

Geopolitically, India carries added significant 'geopolitical weightage' in the strategic calculi of world capitals. China, in tandem, stands devalued geopolitically, due to its aggression in South China Sea and coercive policies against Japan and ASEAN countries.

China's attempts to destabilize the Indo Pacific has cost it heavily in terms of perceptions that it is a 'Major Threat' in the region.

Resultantly, United States deference to China's strategic sensitivities stands diminished and India increasingly sought by United States as an existential counterweight to an uncontrollable China. 

It would therefore be evident that India with robust political leadership unwilling to buckle against China's coercive capabilities enabled by military modernization and upgradation has considerably limited China's propensities of political and military coercion against India.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed is that while India in 2023 may have "limited" China's coercive capabilities against India, 'complete neutralization' of China's coercive capabilities can only take place when India develops capabilities to conduct "Offensive Operations" in China Occupied Tibet.

That should be India's military over-riding aim!!!

VIETNAM MANIFESTS S"STRATEIC TRUST" IN UNITED STATES BY SIGNING HISTORIC 'COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC AGREEMENT WITH UNITED STATES 2023 WITH UNITED STATES ED STATES

Contextually, in terms of the global geopolitical churning, Vietnam elevating its 'Comprehensive Partnership' signed in 2013 signed with the United States to that of "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" is a "Critical Development at a Critical Time" as US President Biden asserted in Hanoi on signing the 'Vietnam-United States Comprehensive Strategic Partnership" on September 10, 2023.

'Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships' are signed by two Nations when both have reached a stage of implicit 'Strategic Trust' in each other and share strategic convergences on prevailing security environments. Therefore, it can be assumed that Vietnam and United States have reached that stage.

Analytically, dispensing recount of detailed provisions already covered in global media, a perceptional analysis of this momentous strategic development follows below.

Geopolitically, the United States has assiduously engaged Vietnam strategically and politically for a decade, witnessed by US Presidents and Secretaries of State and Defense visits. Vietnam as a critical factor in US foreign and security policy formulations has figured prominently.

Vietnam's strategic significance in US geopolitical calculus has emerged with greater salience post-2013 when China under new President Xi Jinping adopted aggressive take-over of South China Sea, with Vietnam targeted.

South China Sea is strategically vital for United States national security interests and also of critical interest for economic survival of US foremost Allies in Pacific---Japan and South Korea. 

South China Sea is strategically dominated by Vietnam's elongated configuration, straddling it all the way from China to the Gulf of Thailand. Vietnam also shares a s conflictual land-border with China's Southern under-belly. 

Historically, it needs to be recalled that Vietnam heroically at different stages since 1940 has stalemated in wars Major Powers of today ranging from United States, France Japan and Communist China. In 1979, Vietnam Border Guards defeated two- Chinese Divisions attack on Vietnam's   Northern land borders.

Vietnam could shave signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with United States a decade back. But Vietnam with an aggressive and overbearing China with occupation of Vietnam Islands in South China Sea, perforce, had to follow a 'China Hedging' strategy.

Then what has made Vietnam depart from its China-Hedging strategy and opt for what is implicitly a 'strategic insurance' with the United States?

Contextual turbulent and polarized security environment in Indo Pacific, it seems has nudged Vietnam towards a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States.

 In global perceptions the United States is still the predominant power in Indo Pacific and will prevail over China in any unfolding conflict with China, which the strategic community assesses is inevitable.

Therefore, Vietnam moving out of China's shadow, brings to Vietnam an existential 'insurance' against the China Threat tentative presently but with potential to become substantial. Vietnam, as the contents of the Agreement indicate will now have access to US advanced S&T inputs and also sizeable US FDI in critical and emerging technologies.

Vietnam will now doubly be the recipient of similar inputs from US Allies in Indo Pacific, namely, Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Vietnam will thus doubly gain in terms of its 'capacity building' of Vietnam's National Power as it faces China.

The United States is a geopolitical, strategic and geoeconomic gainer with an "Irredoubtable" Vietnam having reposed 'Strategic Trust' in the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific.

Concluding, in an overall analysis, for both Vietnam and United States, it is a 'Win-Win' development, both geopolitically and geoeconomically.

Above all, the signing of the Comprehensive Stategic Agreement between Vietnam and the United States, former inveterate enemies, is a powerful signal to China wherein Vietnam, despite ideological affinity with China, has opted to repose "Strategic Trust" in the United States at a time when extreme polarization exists in the Indo Pacific between United States and China.

INDIA'S VISIBLE MULTI-PRONGED STRATEGY OF "CHINA PUSHBACK" BEING IMPLEMENTED UNOBTRSUSIVELY

 China long used to 'Risk Aversion' strategies of India under past Indian governments in tamely submitting to Chinese predatory aggressions on its Northern Borders with China Occupied Tibet finds itself being subjected to an unobtrusive Indian multi-pronged strategy of "China Pushback".

India's unobtrusive "China Pushback" Strategy is discernible in the period 2014-19 with a BJP Government under PM Narendra Modi in power in New Delhi.

PM Modi's overall focus in this strategy in his first term as Prime Minister from 2014-19 was confined to diplomatic isolation of Pakistan and use of disproportionate military force against Pakistan's incessant military provocations along the LOC in J & K State. This was a signal both to Pakistan and China that robust Indian responses would be the new norm to any border provocations.

In this first term, PM Narendra Modi made diplomatic outreaches to China though Chinese President's State visit to India (in which he was most feted) and the two Informal Summits at Wuhan in China and in Mahabalipuram, Chennai in India.

The aim of the above events retrospectively analyzed suggests that the Indian Prime Minister wished to get a personal measure of the Chinese President and also gain time to put into plan Inda's new deployment plans on the borders with China Occupied Tibet to deal with continued Chinese transgressions with impunity. This included upgradation of India's logistics, Army firepower and surveillance systems.

It also incorporated improving India's strategic military infrastructure opposite China Occupied Tibet for speedy mobilization of enhanced troops-level and logistics to sustain enhanced Indian Army deployments on borders with China Occupied Tibet

With the above taking form, one notices a discernible shift in PM Modi's both in 2018 and more noticeably in second term 2019-23 when India's military responses to China's provocative military moves against India from China Occupied Tibet were met with equal force.

Dokalam Standoff 2018 and the unprecedented military chastening of Chinese Army in Eastern Ladakh at Galwan in 2020 were shining examples of India's new resolve. 

Galwan, where Indian Army led by Colonel KD Babu MVC(Posthumous) 16 BIHAR inflicted disproportionate losses in Chinese Army soldiers 'killed', marked a turning point in India's new "China Pushback" Strategy.

For the first time since 1947 when there was only a Battalion for security of Ladakh in 1959. India has deployed a whole Corps for its security against Chinese aggression. With improved military infrastructure and air mobility logistics Indian Army has deployed over 50,000 troops in Eastern Ladakh through two winters supported by tanks and heavy artillery.

The same pattern is evident in Indian Army postures in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

Conventional deterrence was thereby imposed on China with such military measures backed by 'Political Will' of no longer any 'Risk Aversion' strategies to 'tie' the hands of Indian Army.

In tandem, with above military measures, PM Modi initiated an over-derive to make Indian Armed Forces self-reliant in military hardware by greater indigenization of defence production and coopting Indian private industry in defence production. All major arms imports were on a government-to-government dispensing with middle-men arms dealers and political corruption.

With China showing its unwillingness to arrive at reasonable 'risk-reduction' responses on disputed areas along India's borders with China Occupied Tibet and China's attempts India to down-size India's growing geopolitical stature in global organizations, one witnesses introduction of two new strands in PM Modi's 'China Pushback' policy.

These two new strands were economic curtailment of Chinese investments in India especially in sensitive domains affecting Indian defence and security.

More telling in effect on China, has been of late, a marked shift in India's policy stances on Taiwan and China Occupied Tibet.

India subtly signaled it by sending a high-powered delegation of three retired Services Chiefs to attend a notable Security Dialogue organized every year by a Taiwan think-tank. India has allowed Taiwan to increase its Liaison Offices in India. Indian Government has also encouraged Taiwanese industrial majors to establish 'microchips' manufacturing plants in India.

On Tibet, under brutal Chinese Military Occupation, one has discerned a couple of steps which would not only irritate China but also signal to China, a new resolve of India's 'China Pushback' strategy. PM Modi congratulated HH The Dalai Lama on his birthday and Indian TV Channels now show Tibetan MPs of Tibet Government-in-Exile.

China would have noticed the recent sale by India of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles to the Philippines and gifting of an Indian Navy Frigate to Vietnam. Both Philippines and Vietnam are involved in major territorial disputes with China and are strategically located on China's doorsteps.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that Modi Government's "China Pushback" Strategy, multi-pronged and in unobtrusive implementation, has not only had a telling effect on China but also has raised India's global geopolitical and strategic stature.

CHINA'S RABID RESPONSES ON INITIAL INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF UNITED STATES-JAPAN- SOUTH KOREA TRILATERAL

China has rabidly gone "ballistic' in its responses to the Joint Communique issued after the historic Camp David Summit last week after parleys between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, indicating initial 'Institutionalizing' of security cooperation & coordination between these three powerful Nations o China's doorsteps.

Analyzed in my preceding post was the striking conclusion that any 'institutionalizing' of the Trilateral would in effect be a one more significant step by the United States in the 'Containment of China'. This Trilateral, long in coming, however, marks a 'turning point' in the security environment of Western Pacific, adding a much-needed security layer to QUAD and AUKUS.

China's rabid responses on this momentous China-centric containment initiative was not only confined to criticism of the Trilateral but also included derisive "Racist Remarks" by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi aimed at Japan and South Korea.

Chinese Foreign Ministry official reaction was that the United States-Japan-South Korea Trilateral was a 'Mini- NATO Style' military alliance aimed at containment of China. It further added that such efforts were bound to fail, and the world should note how the United States is worsening security environment in the Pacific.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was downright racists and derisive against Japan and South Korea joining the Trilateral. Sarcastically, Chinese Foreign Minister as quoted in media asserted "No matter how yellow you dye your hair, or how sharp you make your nose, you'll never turn into a European or American. You'll never be a Westerner"

Certainly, uncalled for racist remarks against Japan & South Korea's teaming up for Trilateral of security coordination of defence efforts against China Threat.

In run-up to the Trilateral Summit, China indulged in military signaling of disapproval by sending a Joint Flotilla of 11 Ships of Chinese Navy and Russian Navy to waters around Okinawa Island.

Before concluding, it would be pertinent to point out that the Trilateral Summit Communique did not confine the scope of institutionalizing to security matters but also to economic cooperation and intensification of 'people to peoples' exchanges.

The last two could be expected to add more confidence-building initiatives to the so-far 'estranged relationship' between Japan and South Korea.

China is expecting that ultimately domestic politics within Japan and South Korea would fray the Trilateral cohesion. China can be expected to indulge in 'Influence Operations' in Japan and South Korea for 'divisions' to emerge and break the Trilateral Alliance evolving in firmer contours,

China is unlikely to make much headway in this direction, simply, because post-Ukraine and China's threatening moves on Taiwan Military Invasion, deep-rooted 'strategic distrust' of China is a marked sentiment which has impelled Japan and South Korea to cast aside their past historical recriminations. 

Concluding, it is my assessment that the United States-Japan- South Korea Trilateral Alliance will not only survive, but also evolve with firmer contours, with China, on present indicators, not desisting from destabilization of the Western Pacific, more pointedly, it challenges United States predominance in the Pacific.  

UNITED STATES-JAPAN-SOUTH KOREA TRRILATERAL SUMMIT IN WASHINGTON AUGUST 18, 2023, CHECKMATING CHINA

 In yet another momentous strategic step by United States, China will be checkmated by the long-awaited United States-Japan-South Korea Trilateral synthesizing joint military capabilities to be superimposed on the existing Indo Pacific Security Template led by the United States.

So far for last 70 years, while the United States had Bilateral Mutual Security Treaties separately with Japan and South Korea and had 30,000 to 40,000 US Troops as Forward Military Presence each in both these Nations in Northwest Pacific Quadrant on China's doorsteps, what was strategically and sorely missed was an integrated US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral as an effective phalanx against the China Threat.

China until recently had studiously carried on a systematic campaign and had succeeded to keep South Korea distant from Japan preying on historical wrongs that South Korea perceived on Japan's colonial rule over South Korea from 1910-1945.

With the advent of South Korea President Yoon in office and realistically responding to the intensifying China Threat to regional security coupled with growing belligerence of China's nuclear proxy on the Korean Penisula--North Korea, President Yoon of South Korea realized the imperatives of forging a US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral to increase greater military cooperation trilaterally in the interests of regional security.

Thereafter followed numerous rounds of dialogues between the three Nations to evolve plans and mechanisms for greater pooling of security cooperation, and the forthcoming Trilateral Summit in Washington on August 18, 2023, marks the culmination of this joint Trilateral efforts.

The Washington Summit of United States, Japan and South Korea is highly symbolic for IndoPacific Security in that it will reflect the commitments of United States, Japan and South Korea to forge a united front against China Threat.

This symbolism is not lost on China. For weeks anticipating the evolution of this Trilateral and its consecration at Washington Summit on August 18, 2023, China though its media organ 'Global Times' has assiduously carried editorials, columns & commentaries cautioning Japan and South Korea not to fall into the US trap.

Optically, China through these writings seemed frantically desperate that South Korea should not join the Trilateral saying that why should South Koreans become "cannon-fodder" for the United States.

China is deeply concerned as in military terms it carries dangerous portents in terms of checkmating China's unbridled predatory rampage in Western Pacific.

More to the point, it is my assessment that when President Biden sits down with Japanese PM Kishida and South Korea President Yoon in Washington on August 18, 2023, the hot topic which may not come out in public domain, will be the enlistment of South Korea to supplement US and Japan responses in the event of China's military invasion of Taiwan. Herein comes into play South Krean military might in a well-coordinated Trilateral response to China both against Taiwan and against South Korea through North Korea proxy.

Concluding, having had first-hand experience to see Armed Forces of Japan and South Korea both in training and war-contingency maneuvers, I can vouchsafe to the tremendous military punch that Soth Korea adds to the US-Japan military effort against any Chinese Threat.

The US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral, militarily integrated, by itself, is a strong existential in-location deterrence against China's military adventurism.

CHINA ON COLLISION TRAJECTORY WITH UNITED STATES IN INDO PACIFIC IN 2023

The Indo Pacific, 75 years since the last Korean War, in which newly emerged Communist China challenged the United States in a Major War on the Korean Peninsula, once again witnesses China headed on other Major War with the United States, unless prudence overtakes the megalomaniac impulses of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Unlike Korean War 1949-50, any future war which China provokes the United States into an armed conflict, inherently incorporates the possibilities of a wider Major War involving not only Indo Pacific countries but also Europe and Russia forced to side with China.

China with its amassed military power exponentially built up in last 20 years, when United States was strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, is itching to flex its military muscles.

Chinese President Xi Jinping having had his way in establishing 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea without any checkmating by Bush and President Obama Administrations was led into the belief that "US Power was on the Decline'.

However, follow-up US Presidents Trump and Joe Biden have adopted Hard Line strategies towards China which while not dispensing dialogues with China incorporates Trade Wars and even firm contours of a 'China Containment Policy'.

In 2023, United States strategic policies of a mix of Trade Wars and Containment have started hurting China and more specifically the image of Chinese President Xi Jinping whose signature swing from decades of 'Soft Power' usage was replaced by Xi's muscular 'Hard Line' strategies.

So, in 2023 we are witnessing the kinetics of both China and the United States engaged in a confrontation of 'Hard Line Strategies' against each other.

The Indo Pacific Regin in 2023 is sitting on an explosive gunpowder-keg which even a small unintended incendiary spark can ignite a possible Worl War III.

In my assessment that 'Incendiary Spark' will be ignited by China and not the United States. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping has too many high-profile stakes in the 'flash points' that he has ignited on China's peripheries since 2013. Domestically, President cannot afford to climb down on these flashpoints without endangering his regime.

Post-Ukraine War in which Russia is stuck in a quagmire of its own creation, Russia's geopolitical and military dependence on China has intensified. This has forced Russia to actively participate in Joint Air Patrols with Chinese Air Force combat planes over adjoining Seas of Japan and South Korea. Additionally, Russia has been drawn-in by China to take part in similar provocative Joint Naval Exercises in these contested spaces.

The moot question that emerges from such a hostile, contested and confrontationist security environment in Western Pacific, is that for how long the United States can exercise "Strategic Restraint"' against an aggressive and bellicose China intent on challenging United States predominance in Indo Pacific?

In Conclusion, the assessment that I wish to offer is that "Strategic Restraint" of the United States is wearing thin, going by ongoing US military developments in Indo Pacific.

The United States will not be the first one to ignite the spark of a Major War in Indo Pacific. The United States will await China to do so.

The United States would, however, be well-advised to bear the lessons of the Korean Warin its strategic planning. China then with a primitive military machine and no nuclear weapons, dared to challenge the United States then a Sole Nuclear Power in the world.

In 2023 and beyond, China bristling with a nuclear weapons arsenal and a formidable military machine can be expected to be more aggressive and vicious in its next War with the United States & US Allies.

   

NATO VILNIUS SUMMIT 2023 AND INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Op Ed published on the quoted subject carried by Eurasia Review. See at

https://eurasiareview.com/15072023-nato-vilnius-summit-indo-pacific-security-oped/

NATO seriously concerned by systemic challenges posed by China to Indo Pacific security and also to European security.

NATO can be expected to intensify its strategic outreach to Indo Pacific

RUSSIA AND UNITED STATES LIKELY STRATEGIC POSTURES IN EVENT OF NEXT CHINA-INDIA WAR ANALYSED

Contextually, a China-India War is inevitable viewing India's Northern Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet in 2023 being conflictual and explosive with China deploying massed military formations reflecting its strategic intent to coerce India to submit to China's delineation of its perceived "Strategic Frontiers". 

China's belligerence against India is bound to intensify and its military responses against India can escalate in response to India's rising military profile and India reducing its military asymmetries with China's Comprehensive Military Power.

Medium and long-range military indicators suggest that China's President-for-Life Xi Jinping in pursuit of his grandiose Greater China Dream perceives India's geopolitical postures impeding his obsessive ambition. 

With President Xi Jinping at the helm and casting himself in the mould of Chairman Mao Tse Tung's 'Great Helmsman' role, the temptation for another China-India War exists substantially, notwithstanding India's stiff military standoffs against China at Dokalam and more notably at Galwan recently.

With such a strategic backdrop it becomes imperative for India's security establishment to analyze Russia's and United States possible strategic postures in the event of a second major China-India War, which may not be a short-duration War.

Analytically, geopolitical factors prevailing in 2023 and likely to unfold for another two decades at least, suggest two contrasting strategic postures of Russia and United States in the event of the next China-India War.

 Russia post-Ukraine, more specially, enfeebled both geopolitically and militarily, will be in no position to provide even the semblance of any countervailing influence over China to dissuade it from its impulsive instincts for war with India.

India's security establishment needs to remember the historical record of then Former USSR responses to China-India War 1962. Russia was then a powerful Superpower, geopolitically and militarily powerful. Yet even despite its recent armed Border Conflicts with China on disputed Ussuri River territories, Russia adopted a neutral posture in China-India War 1962.

Strategic reality check of that period glaringly highlights that it was the United States and Western Countries that rushed-in military supplies to India in its hour of crisis after the first Chinese onslaught. in October 1962. US Air Force provided massive C-130 airlifts to rush Indian Army formations to Sikkim and Arunachal.

Coming to United States strategic postures in the next China-India War, going by past historical precedent, and unfolding geopolitical environment, where United States has invested heavily in US-India Strategic Partership, analytically it can be asserted safely that the United States would adopt substantive geopolitical, strategic and military postures in support of India against China.

The manifestations of United States multi-dimensional postures in support of India will form the basis of another Paper. Suffice it to state that short of putting boots on the ground, which India would also not want, the United States could be expected to pull out all stops to assist India in its War against China.

Concluding, one cannot but observe, that if Russia is no longer a 'Strategic Asset' for India against China, and the United States can prove much more of a 'Strategic Asset' for India against China, including its vast counter-vailing power, should India now RESET ITS RUSSIA-POLICY and stop its multipolarity crusade?

BIDEN-MODI "SUPER-SUMMIT" IN WASHINGTON JUNE 2023 POSITIONS INDIA ON ASCENDANT POWER TRAJECTORY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA

Perceptional analysis would firmly indicate that the "Super Summit" between US President Joe Biden and PM Narendra Modi in Washington in end-June 2023 carries unprecedented historical significance in firmly positioning India on an ascendant power trajectory towards emerging as a Major Global Power.

Geopolitical churning, more specifically in the Indo Pacific in the last three years or so have neutralized any diffidence that may have held back both United States and India from capitalizing the full potential of their strategic and security interdependence in the Indo Pacific.

In June 2023, and the years leading to it, China has loomed large and heavily menacing in the threat perceptions of the United States and India. The intensification of the China Threat has nudged both United States and India to dispense with their respective diffidence's and add unprecedented weight and wider dimensions to the US-India Strategic Partnership.

The United States and India with obvious studied deliberation have studiously avoided designating the China Threat in their Joint Communique but it is obvious that the very premise that girds the US-India Strategic Partnership from its inception in 2000 has been the mounting concerns on the China Threat.

In the years in the run-up to June 2023, the constant assertion both by United States and India is their commitment to a "Free, Open and Secure Indo Pacific". Implicit in this assertion is that both United States and India are committed to secure the Indo Pacific---- obviously against China's coercion, aggression and predatory impulses.

The Biden-Modi "Super-Summit" and its major security-centric decisions even those in economic and science & technology domains, stand dissected widely in the media. It is not the intention in this post to repeat them but move on to the implications that arise for China thereof.

China has been heavily impacted by the burgeoning US-India Strategic Partership and especially by the slew of Basic Foundational Security Agreements that have been signed by both countries. These place India virtually as a Major NATO Plis Ally with access to advanced military hardware and technology transfers.

China was rattled beyond reason as evidenced by critical official observations even before PM Modi departed for the Washinton State Visit. China warned India not to become a 'US tool for containment of China'.

So, to begin the examination of implications of the major security-centric decisions of Biden-Modi Super-Summit, it is pertinent to highlight that China fears that the endgame of United States and India in coming decades is the Virtual "Containment of China".

Be that as it may, China in 2013 acutely perceives that the 'Balance of Power' in the Indo Pacific has tilted away from China's favor. The strengthening of the QUAD, the AUKUS Accords, and the return of the Philippines to the US-led security architecture are some examples.

The United States was for decades the predominant Power dominating the Western Pacific.  India's entry into the Western Pacific largely as part of PM Modi's 'Act East' policy has added heavy "strategic ballast to United States strategic predominance.

United States with India in tow now have widened the security dimensions from Asia Pacific to Indo Pacific. This in a strategic manner outflanks China's thrusts in the Middle East.

United States granting India access to advanced US military systems, technology systems, joint development and joint production of jet engines for military aircraft significantly reduces China's asymmetric military superiority over India.

Geopolitically, evident since 2020 is that India can no longer be subjected to political and military coercion by China which had accustomed to doing so prior to 2014.

China will now have to factor-in likely United States responses to any Chinese military aggression against India in the future notwithstanding the absence of a Mutual Security Treaty.

Concluding, it can be summed-up that the major outcome of the Biden-Modi June 2023 Summit is that it places India firmly on an ascendant power trajectory to Major Global Power status.

Worth recalling is that China today figuring as a Major Threat in threat perceptions of India and United States with pretentions of being a Superpower gained 'Power Status' ironically assisted by the United States.

UNITED STATES AND INDIA IN 2023 ARE IN A QUASI-MILITARY ALLIANCE TRANSCENDING A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

The United States-India Strategic Partnership whose inception took place in 2000 has in 2023 evolved into a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership which in form and substance today is a "Quasi-Military Alliance" transcending the dimensions of a mere Strategic Partnership. 

The only difference between a Formal Military Alliance and "Quasi-Military Alliance" is that a Formal Military Alliance is defined by a formal 'Security Treaty' and a "Quasi-Military Alliance" incorporates a set of defence and security cooperation agreements without an over-arching Formal Security Treaty.

In both cases, a formal or quasi-military alliance, the objective is to cater for security cooperation against a 'Common Perceived Threat'. In a formal military alliance, the perceived threat is spelt out in terms of 'capabilities and intentions'.

In a "Quasi-Military Alliance" the 'Perceived Threat' may be spelt out 'explicitly' or 'implicitly' forms the basis of a set of defense and security agreements.

The US-India Comprehensive Special Global Partnership when examined in light of the above parameters deucedly falls into the category of a "Quasi-Military Alliance" both in the bilateral context and also in the multilateral context.

The common perceived threat in the bilateral context is the 'China Threat' which has manifested itself unambiguously in the Indo Pacific against India and the United States.

In the multilateral context, countries extending from South Korea, Japan and Australia too perceive the 'China Threat' directly as impacting on their national security interests. 

When viewed as an integrated whole in relation to the 'China Threat' in Indo Pacific, the security template that has emerged in 2023 in the IndoPacific is a set of bilateral security alliances between United States and South Korea, Japan and Australia and the bilateral US-India Comprehensive Special Global Partnership. Additionally, India has bilateral Strategic partnership agreements with Japan, Australia and South Korea.

Superimposed on the above security template in Indo Pacific are multilateral security groups like the QUAD Security Initiative comprising United States, Japan, India & Australia and AUKUS comprising USA, UK &Australia.

With NATO also perceiving the 'China Threat' to NATO's Southern Flank and with Major European Powers asserting their "stakes" in Indo Pacific security, an Eastern NATO is a possibility that now hovers over the horizon, and this was discussed in my last Paper.

Concluding, it needs to be noted with serious emphasis that however Indian foreign policy planners disavow military alliances, the stark reality in 2023 and likely to be reinforced by unfolding events in IndoPacific is that the 'China Threat' has nudged India into a "Quasi-Military Alliance" with the United States. 

Semantics aside, this is the whole truth and for India's strategic and security good. India needs to position itself securely in a heavily polarized Bipolar World which does not offer India bandwidth to indulge in shibboleths like non-Alignment 2.0 or Multipolarity.