INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : CHINA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY COERCIVE CAPABILITIES AGAINST INDIA VISIBLY LIMITED IN 2023

Thursday, October 5, 2023

CHINA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY COERCIVE CAPABILITIES AGAINST INDIA VISIBLY LIMITED IN 2023

China noted since 1949 as an aggressive proponent of political and military coercion against its peripheral neighbors has visibly found that in 2023 that India under Modi Regime since 2014 is no longer a 'political or military pushover' State.

In this 2014-23 period, India has exorcised the 'Ghosts of 1962 Military Debacle' then imposed by timid political leadership. India in this same period went into an overdrive to reduce its military asymmetries with China on its Northern Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

India's Galwan Military Standoff in 2020 preceded by Dokalam Military Standoff of 2017 were 'Turning Points' in the decades of India cowing down timidly under Chinese military aggression and coercion.

During Galwan 2020 in Ladakh, India mobilized and deployed more than 50,000 troops with tanks, APCs and heavy artillery. All these massive deployments in a High- Altitude terrain stood backed by considerable IAF offensive air power and air transport mobility.

India's robust political and military responses to China's creeping aggression and coercion now empowered by rapid developing of strategic roads network and Forward Bases for Indian Air Force have lowered the threshold for Chinese military coercion.

Geopolitically, India carries added significant 'geopolitical weightage' in the strategic calculi of world capitals. China, in tandem, stands devalued geopolitically, due to its aggression in South China Sea and coercive policies against Japan and ASEAN countries.

China's attempts to destabilize the Indo Pacific has cost it heavily in terms of perceptions that it is a 'Major Threat' in the region.

Resultantly, United States deference to China's strategic sensitivities stands diminished and India increasingly sought by United States as an existential counterweight to an uncontrollable China.

It would therefore be evident that India with robust political leadership unwilling to buckle against China's coercive capabilities enabled by military modernization and upgradation has considerably limited China's propensities of political and military coercion against India.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed is that while India in 2023 may have "limited" China's coercive capabilities against India, 'complete neutralization' of China's coercive capabilities can only take place when India develops capabilities to conduct "Offensive Operations" in China Occupied Tibet.

That should be India's military over-riding aim!!!

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister