The Indo Pacific, 75 years since the last Korean War, in which newly emerged Communist China challenged the United States in a Major War on the Korean Peninsula, once again witnesses China headed on other Major War with the United States, unless prudence overtakes the megalomaniac impulses of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Unlike Korean War 1949-50, any future war which China provokes the United States into an armed conflict, inherently incorporates the possibilities of a wider Major War involving not only Indo Pacific countries but also Europe and Russia forced to side with China.
China with its amassed military power exponentially built up in last 20 years, when United States was strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, is itching to flex its military muscles.
Chinese President Xi Jinping having had his way in establishing 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over the South China Sea without any checkmating by Bush and President Obama Administrations was led into the belief that "US Power was on the Decline'.
However, follow-up US Presidents Trump and Joe Biden have adopted Hard Line strategies towards China which while not dispensing dialogues with China incorporates Trade Wars and even firm contours of a 'China Containment Policy'.
In 2023, United States strategic policies of a mix of Trade Wars and Containment have started hurting China and more specifically the image of Chinese President Xi Jinping whose signature swing from decades of 'Soft Power' usage was replaced by Xi's muscular 'Hard Line' strategies.
So, in 2023 we are witnessing the kinetics of both China and the United States engaged in a confrontation of 'Hard Line Strategies' against each other.
The Indo Pacific Regin in 2023 is sitting on an explosive gunpowder-keg which even a small unintended incendiary spark can ignite a possible Worl War III.
In my assessment that 'Incendiary Spark' will be ignited by China and not the United States.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has too many high-profile stakes in the 'flash points' that he has ignited on China's peripheries since 2013. Domestically, President cannot afford to climb down on these flashpoints without endangering his regime.
Post-Ukraine War in which Russia is stuck in a quagmire of its own creation, Russia's geopolitical and military dependence on China has intensified. This has forced Russia to actively participate in Joint Air Patrols with Chinese Air Force combat planes over adjoining Seas of Japan and South Korea. Additionally, Russia has been drawn-in by China to take part in similar provocative Joint Naval Exercises in these contested spaces.
The moot question that emerges from such a hostile, contested and confrontationist security environment in Western Pacific, is that for how long the United States can exercise "Strategic Restraint"' against an aggressive and bellicose China intent on challenging United States predominance in Indo Pacific?
In Conclusion, the assessment that I wish to offer is that "Strategic Restraint" of the United States is wearing thin, going by ongoing US military developments in Indo Pacific.
The United States will not be the first one to ignite the spark of a Major War in Indo Pacific. The United States will await China to do so.
The United States would, however, be well-advised to bear the lessons of the Korean Warin its strategic planning. China then with a primitive military machine and no nuclear weapons, dared to challenge the United States then a Sole Nuclear Power in the world.
In 2023 and beyond, China bristling with a nuclear weapons arsenal and a formidable military machine can be expected to be more aggressive and vicious in its next War with the United States & US Allies.
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