Russia's strategic diminution in the wake of its stalemated ill-advised invasion of Ukraine can be analyzed as robbing China of much of China's fire-spitting aggressive brinkmanship in Indo Pacific, noticeably evident with Chinese Foreign Minister's dash to Washington and overtures to US for restoration of military ties.
Till last month, all roads led to Beijing with a flurry of visits by top US Biden Administration officials including Secretary of State Blinken and Commerce Secretary to China.
This trend now seems to have been reversed with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi dash to Washington for talks with Secretary of State Blinken and even a brief meet with President Biden.
China has advanced reasons for above as preparatory moves for possible Chinese President Xi Jinping's participation in APEC Summit in San Francisco in November 2023.
Couple of years back, in my South Asia Analysis Papers, I had analyzed how China and Russia as a concretized Russia-China Axis contributed to secure their respective 'rear flanks' in confrontation with United States & Allies.
Firmly believe that in 2023 and beyond, with Russia's strategic diminution and economic sluggishness due to Ukraine war-costs, Russia like yesteryears, stands enfeebled to provide that 'rear-flank' security cover to China's military confrontations with US &Allies/Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific Region, as visible in end-2023.
Resulting from the above, what are China's options in Indo Pacific?
China cannot afford to "lose face" in Indo Pacific by a climbdown in its aggressive confrontation with the United States both for external reasons and more significantly for domestic political reasons.
So how does China script its strategic stances in 2024 and beyond?
In my assessment, China will adopt a two-pronged strategy "copying" United States current China-strategy of operating on two planes.
China at the global level would like to be perceived as United States 'strategic-equal' by striking reasonable strategic postures with United States and at on a second lower plane resorting to intensification of its military confrontation for 'optical photo-ops' against Japan, India and the Philippines.
Contextually, the above China-perceived strategy is likely to "misfire" when in US strategic circles the majority debate suggest that United States is now capable of "Combatting Two and a Half Military Threats".
This includes dealing with two major threats of Russia and China and a possible military contingency elsewhere.
China much to its regret, has also to factor-in the reality that within the United States there persists bipartisan support for strong and firm US 'Hard Line' policies on China.
The above is conclusively reflected in China-policy assertions made by US Presidential Probables, both Democratic and Republican.
Hence, US Presidential Election year offers no solace to China in terms of US China-policy. China can be expected, however, to resort to Hybrid Warfare strategies within USA as it did in last presidential elections.
China's past historical record illustrates that China will not be deterred by any of the above factors working against it.
China with a 'Compulsive Reflex Syndrome' can be expected to plunge the Indo Pacific Region in 2024 into more strategic disruptions by aggressive predatory moves!!!
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