The 5th US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue due to start on November 10, 2023, acquires significant geopolitical contours when analyzed in context of two ongoing major armed conflicts going on in Ukraine and Gaza in which the United States is involved in a major way.
The United States would expect from India as its "Key Strategic Partner" to adopt more "Key, Notable & Substantive" geopolitical and security postures contributive to US national security interests in the Middle East conflict contingencies.
Can India with its preferred fixations on multipolarity as a foreign policy precept measure up to United States expectations?
Initially, it needs to be highlighted that the very basis of evolution of the now so-titled and so -evolved over two decades US-India Global Comprehensive Stategic Partnership is shared strategic convergences on major global issues threatening global and regional security.
Major ongoing armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza War threaten both regional and global security and peace. This strategic reality is not open to differing interpretations.
Unlike in Ukraine Invasion by Russia, the United States has reacted with major military deployments of US Forces as pre-emptive measures by Iran to escalate and enlarge the war on Israel. The United States is intensely committed to security of Israel.
Iran has merged as a major actor against the United States not only with its nuclear weapons arsenal but also weaponizing Islamist Armed Militias like Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah operating in Southern Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.
These Iran -controlled Armed Militias are heavily armed and in possession of Rockets arsenals. Hamas and Hezbollah plague Israel security with a Two Front Threat. They also undermine US security interests in Middle East in favor of Iran.
The lurking danger in November 2023 is that Iran may be sucked into escalating this War against Israel and United States, as prospects increase of Hamas being liquidated by Israel.
In the above eventuality, India faces serious policy predicaments which can best be summed-up in the following questions: (1) Can India strategically afford to adopt a neutral stand in an escalated war in which United States could be sucked-in? (2) Is India ready to dispense with its fairly good relationship with Iran drawn into a War with United States and Israel? (3) Would India be in a position to withstand the geopolitical and economic costs of adopting a neutral stance in the event of a Middle East War?
India has unlike the Ukraine Invasion, surprisingly but realistically, taken a clear stand by PM Modi asserting that "India stands with Israel". India has not adopted an ambiguous stand when it came to Israel when contrasted with that of Ukraine.
Therefore, if India has asserted that it stands with Israe and the United State is committed to Isreal's security and existence at all costs, it is logical that India's policy adoptions in event of war in Middle East would be congruent with that of the United States "Short of committing troops on the ground".
The United States on the eve of the Meet has officially declared that it is for India to make its decisions.
Hopefully, India would be able to rise up to United States expectations by fulfilling provisions of all the US-India Defence Arrangements signed like BECA, COMCASA and more notably LEMOA.
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