INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : PAKISTAN'S STRATEGY OF ENLISTING MAJOR POWERS COUNTERVAILENCE AGAINST INDIA GEOPOLITICALLY INOPERATIVE IN 2025

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

PAKISTAN'S STRATEGY OF ENLISTING MAJOR POWERS COUNTERVAILENCE AGAINST INDIA GEOPOLITICALLY INOPERATIVE IN 2025

Pakistan ever since its emergence as an independent nation with Partition of the Indian Subcontinent in 1947 by outgoing British colonial rulers has persistently confronted India militarily, adopting a strategy of enlisting "Major Powers Countervailence" geopolitical weightage.

This geopolitical weightage carried an element of 'poetical permissiveness' which enabled Pakistan to indulge in repeated wars against India coupled with Pakistan Army sponsored Islamic Jihadi terrorism against India.

Seventy-five years down the line since 1947, is a good enough timespan to objectively analyze whether Pakistan 's adoption of "Major Powers Countervailence Strategy" has enabled Pakistan to reap strategic dividends against India.

Pakistan sequentially banked in terms of Countervailing Power on Britain, the United States and then finally on Communist China. There were however overlaps amongst the Major Powers in providing countervailing power e.g. the convergence of United States and China in supporting Pakistan jointly. during the 1990s and till quite lately.

Pakistan's "Major Powers Countervailence Strategy" has failed as geopolitical realities in 2025 would indicate. The United States is today locked in a robust Global Strategic Partnership with India, China though continuing in military confrontation with India is politically reaching out to India since Galwan 2020 and moreso now with Trump2:0 advent in United States and Britain does not count much.

Pakistan in 2025 presents the political picture of a

'Dysfunctional State' tottering politically and economically. Chiefly, this arises from the economic costs of its unremitting military confrontation with India.

United States in earlier decades and China's ongoing heavy military support to Pakistan was corelated to their geopolitical objectives at a given point of time and not unlimited.

Strategically ironic for Pakistan is that despite sizeable US military rearmament and China's buildup of Pakistan's nuclear and missiles arsenal, Pakistan could not militarily get the better of India in all the Wars that it launched in 1948, 1965, 1971 & 19999.

Pakistan however has refused to learn or strategically ignore the bitter lessons that passage of time has thrust on it.

The megalomanic egos of Pakistan Army Chiefs and its Collegium of Corps Commanders empowered by possession of nuclear weapons has put them in a military trance that India is powerless in launching crippling military strikes against Pakistan.

The latest terrorism attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir Valley inflicted by Islamic Jihadi terrorists' affiliates of Pakistan Army resulting in loss of 30 Hindu lives should mark a 'Turning Point' for India to strike military blows to destroy Pakistan Army's military adventurism against India.

Lastly, The geopolitical environment in 2025 is in India's favor ruling out any significant provision of United States or China's "Countervailence Support" for Pakistan against India, should India militarily strike Pakistan Army and its infrastructure.

India should follow the Israeli maxim: 'When you have to strike the enemy, then strike hard with full crippling force'.

and China

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister