CHINA AGREES TO ESTABLISH MILITARY HOTLINE WITH JAPAN AMID RISING TENSIONS

In a marked change from China's stances for last ten years of dithering and responding firmly in establishing a military hotline between Beijing and Tokyo, on December 27 2021 after a two hour video conference between Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, it was announced that both countries had agreed to establish the hotline before end of 2022.

Analytically, China's changed stance arises from increased military tensions between China and Japan over Chinese military provocations not only around the Japanese Senkaku Islands in East China Sea which China claims but also in Chinese submarines prowling around in Japanese waters.

Japan has retaliated to China's increasing military provocations by substantially increasing its defense budget, shifting the weight of Japanese military deployments southwards, increase in its offensive punch of its weapons systems and anti-ballistic missiles systems.

China's current strategic concerns on Japan's increasing military profile transcends seemingly into the geopolitical domains also where Japan has lately taken strong positions over China's threats of military invasion of Taiwan.

More than the above, what seems to have rattled China was the strong postures that Japan has taken over the Taiwan issue in asserting that it is seriously concerned with China's escalating of military tensions in the Taiwan Straits.

Indicative of the above were also media reports suggesting that Japan would actively side with any United States military actions that were aimed to deter China from a military invasion of Taiwan.

Reading in between the lines, one can conclude that the above virtually amounts to Japan not subscribing to China's 'One China' formulation and that Taiwan is a part of China.

On another plane, China's willingness to establish a military hotline with Japan may be arising from Chinese calculations that by setting up a direct hotline with Tokyo, it could possibly open up direct lines of communication with Japan m independent of United States.

Concluding, whatever be the current compulsions of China to finally set up a military hotline with Japan, one thing is certain and that is that Japan would not succumb to Chinese overtures to wean away Japan from the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty  which covers under Article 5 contingencies that may arise over Senkaku Islands and Taiwan too.

Analytically, China's changed stance on the desirability of establ a military hotline with Tokyo arises from increase military tensions between China and Japan over  

UNITED STATES UNDER SCRUTINY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY COMMITMENTS - DECEMBER 2021

 On the verge of he year 2022, major Southeast Asian nations like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand pereceptionally seem to be either unsure of United States commitments on Indo Pacific security or overly weighed down by China's potential displeasure on South East Asia tilting towards United States. The latter fear arising from China generating domestic conflict in these countries.

In the last two years, the United States has given a lead in the revival of the US-led QUAD Security Initiative which now is active with participation of Major Powers of Indo Pacific, namely India, Japan and Australia. The QUAD undeniably is China-centric deterrence in manifestation.

In yet another strategic assertion aimed at deterrence of China and imposing potentially nuclear "Dissuasion" on China's propensity for disruptive military adventurism in Indo Pacific, the United States this year also set up the AUKUS comprising Australia, UK and US. AUKUS is potentially nuclear deterrence in play against China.

In tandem Major Powers of NATO like France and UK have lately been vocally and assertively veering towards more active roles in Indo Pacific security contributing and supplementing the overall efforts of the 'Arc of Democracies', so aptly named by Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, to impose deterrence on China.

Against this backdrop, it is surprising that South East Asia countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand should still be uncertain on US resolve to honour its commitments to underwrite Indo Pacific security.

Aware of this strategic wavering and fear of China's strategic reverberations on tilting towards US-led  security mechanisms, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken recently undertook a three nation tour of South East Asia beginning with Indonesia and follow-up visits to Malaysia and Thailand.

It was in Indonesia, the largest and influential ASEAN Nations that US Secretary of State Blinken made the strongest reiteration of United States security commitments to Indo Pacific security. China by name was cautioned against its predatory military adventurism.

Understandably, Indonesia and Malaysia, with sizable Chinese expatriate Chinese communities in their midst and Indonesia having suffered widespread racial riots in the past should be wary of being perceived by China as joining the US-led posse' against China.

Partly, these South East Asian nations uncertainty on US-resolve to guarantee  Indo Pacific security may be arising from United States demonstrated historical pattern from US unceremonious military exit from Vietnam, US shying away from confronting China in its South China Sea depredations in initial stages, and the strategic ambiguity on defence of Taiwan currently the target of China's political and military coercion.

In order that Indo Pacific Region, and specifically, the wavering South East Asia nations, rallies around US-led Indo Pacific security initiatives to deter China, strategic imperatives exist for United States to demonstrate by assertions by US President and by demonstrated actions by use of visible US military power in confronting China. 

RUSSIA MUST NOT BE ON WRONG SIDE OF HISTORY IN INDO PACIFIC 2021

Russia as an erstwhile Superpower and with aspirations to re-emerge as an alternative global power centre regrettably stands out on the wrong side of history in Indo Pacific security environment in 2021. Notably so, because Russia is perceived to be siding with China which has polarized the entire Indo Pacific against it.

The entire Indo Pacific vast expanse from Japan to India and from South Korea to Australia is geopolitically and strategically ranged against China because of its propensity to use military force on its peripheries to impose the Chinese writ.

In the highly polarized Indo Pacific security environment where the United States has been successful in rallying China-beleaguered Nations to align with it in countervailing security mechanisms against China like QUAD and AUKUS, surely, Russia should be asking itself questions of re-setting an exit the Russia-China strategic nexus? from

Russia far far too long has subordinated its own global strategic stature to China's strategic aims, more out of expediency rather than Russia's national security interests. Can Russia afford to continue this trend any further in the emerging Indo Pacific security environment?

China's military arrogance arising from past US timid responses against China's South China Sea depredations has emboldened China now to challenge United States over its plans to annex Taiwan by use of military force.

The above scenario inherently has the potential to ignite an armed conflict between China and the United States. Chinese military brinkmanship may not wot work any longer.

Russia in the above conflictual scenario would be in a serious strategic dilemma. Should it align with China militarily against the United States-led coalitions like QUAD and AUKUS which may then emerge  more actively assertive?

Would Russia as an alternative opt for being a passive spectator and let a US-China armed conflict play out to its logical conclusion?

In both cases Russia would perceptionally lose out to being on the wrong side of history in terms of its strategic stature and standing in the Indo Pacific. All of this for the single reason because of its strategic alignment with an aggressive China perceived as a 'Revisionist Power' bent on challenging the established world order,

Russia desperately needs serious course-corrections in its strategic policy formulations.

UNITED STATES IMPERATIVES TO RETRIEVE MYANMAR FROM COMMUNIST CHINA'S STRATEGIC CLUTCHES

Myanmar  has intrinsic geostrategic and geoeconomic significance for Indo Pacific security which dictate pressing imperatives for the United States to retrieve Myanmar from Communist China's strategic embrace as it were US policies of demonisation of Myanmar military rulers which pushed this Nation into this unwilling embrace.

Repetitively emphasised for last two decades in my writings was the singular fact that it was Communist China which grasped Myanmar into a gridlock strategic embrace and it was not Myanmar that wooed Communist China.

Demonisation of Myanmar was indulged by United States and the West even during the turn of the Millennium and continues till today. The singular charge against Myanmar is that Human Rights excesses take place by military regimes.

Double -standards should not be applied by United States as worse Human Rights excesses took place in Pakistan and which were ignored by United States. At the height of US-China bonhomie Communist China was indulging in ethnic and cultural genocides in Occupied Tibet and Xinjiang. United States never demonized Pakistan and Communist  China .

Undoubtedly, it has to be conceded that it were the military regimes in Myanmar that could prevent the disintegration of Myanmar by forcefully neutralising host of externally-inspired insurgencies on its peripheries, mostly by Communist China.

Plagued by externally generated insurgencies and demonisation and economic sanctions by United States, the military rulers in Myanmar pushed into a corner became an unwilling victim for Communist China's strategic embrace.

The United States did make a political outreach to Myanmar under President Barrack Obama but that initiative was not followed up by successive US Administrations.. 

India realised the folly of  diplomatic isolation of Myanmar followed by United States and relations were reset by PM P V Narasimha Rao in early 1990s to consequent strategic advantages for India

Fresh initiatives by the United States to retrieve Myanmar from Communist China's strategic clutches are a pressing imperative for the United States in the context of its escalating military confrontation with Communist China.

Concluding, surely the military planners in Washington need a fresh strategic reality check on the significance of Myanmar as a strategic asset for Indo Pacific security architecture for the coming decades. 

Myanmar solidly with the United States and Major Powers of Indo Pacific would provide United States with a foothold on Beijing's Southern underbelly, heighten Beijing's Malacca Dilemma and shut out the Bay of Bengal completely to Communist China.

Surely, it is a small price for United States to pay by dispensing with 'Human Rightism' evangelism for exponential strategic gains for Indo Pacific security.

NIXONIAN 1972 ILL-ADVISED PREMISES OF UNITED STATES CHINA-POLICY BY HENRY KISSINGER INVALID IN 2021

Contextual security environment of Indo Pacific Region and Red  China's pronounced adversarial postures challenging United States supremacy in 2021 render "Invalid" the ill-advised United States China-policy premises of 1972 by then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to President Nixon.

Geo-politically it may have been tempting for United States in 1972 to balance USSR with Red China as a quasi-strategic ally but in 2021 when Red China and Russia are in a strategic nexus opposing the United States, Nixonian approaches in US China-policy are geopolitically invalid

This needs to be highlighted in November 2021 with the prospects of a 'Virtual' Meet of US President Joe Biden with Red China's President Xi Jinping due anytime soon.

There is a clamor in American strategic community that US President instead of persisting with Trump Administration 'Hard Line' policies on Red China should strive towards "Management of China". Implicit in such advisories is once again the old elements of 'China Hedging' and 'Risk Aversion'.

The United States has in past decades paid a heavy price for such ill-advised premises of US China-policy which emboldened Red China to indulge in disruptive military brinkmanship all across Indo Pacific at the expense of United States image as the undoubted provider of global security and stability.

In 2021 Red China with President Xi Jinping casting himself in mold of Chairman Mao Tse Tung, and apparently aspiring to outshine him, has set Red China on an inevitable clashing trajectory with the United States.

Would any of the proponents of "Management of China" advocacy in the American strategic community amplify or assert that this does not amount to 'Red China Appeasement'? Would these proponents not concede that this sort of advocacy is 'Chamberlainisque" in content and reminiscent of 'Peace at Any Cost' by then UK Premier and which set the stage of World War II?

In 2021, the United States is at an inflexion-point with a highly militaristic and aggressive Red China bent on Hitlerian grandiose blueprint of a glorious 'Great China". Asia is watching whether the United States would stand upto Red Chinese imperialism or wilt under ?

In 2021, clearly two US Presidents in succession have reset American policies to meet the unfolding 'China Threat', and very rightly too.  In tandem,the United States has been pro-actively crafting security mechanisms across Indo Pacific like QUAD and AUKUS, it would be a serious 'breach of faith' with countries like Japan, India and Australia who have joined hands with the United States to checkmate the Red China Threat to peace.

The United States in 2021 can also ill-afford to indulge in ;Management of China' on two different planes of 'Security & Trade Appeasement' of Red China and on a different plane expecting India, Japan & Australia to be sensitive and respond to Red China Threat.

US President Joe Biden and the American policy establishment should be alive to and respect the security sensitivities of members of QUAD and AUKUS as United States prepares its policy positions for the Virtual Meet of US & Red China Presidents.

 

CHINA-CENTRIC SECURITY COALITIONS OVERSHADOW INDO PACIFIC ECONOMIC ORGANISATIONS

 In 2021, in the wake of the 'China Threat' being escalated to explosive levels by Communist China under leadership of President Xi Jinping , geopolitical and geostrategic churning in its wake has been marked by the overshadowing of existing Indo Pacific economic organisations like APEC and EAS  by security coalitions like The QUAD  and AUKUS.

In the first two decades of 21st Century, the United States as the Global Superpower with high stakes in Indo Pacific security and stability vainly hoped that Communist China would adapt itself to emerge as a benign stakeholder in Indo Pacific security and stability.

But the Communist Rulers in Beijing emboldened by United States reluctance to checkmate Communist China's exponential military buildup and misperceived notions that the 'China Card' was still operative in Beijing's favor embarked on military confrontations from Japan, Taiwan, South China Sea to Eastern Ladakh.

The United States belatedly realized that Communist China had no inclinations to contribute to Indo Pacific security except on Communist China's terms. Beijing with its military aggression in South China Sea signaled to United States that Communist China was not only intent on challenging United States predominance in the Western Pacific but also had intentions to contend with the United States to emerge as the 'Second Pole' in global power-play.

In quick succession, the United States reinforced the US-India Global Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, reinforced its Alliance linkages with South Korea and Japan and revived The QUAD, extricated itself from Afghanistan and established AUKUS--bringing into existence a Trilateral of three nuclear powered submarines nations.

In tandem, other security linkages that stand reinforced are the Japan-India Strategic Partnership, India-Australia Strategic Partnership, United States outreach to Vietnam and Japan engaged in military capacity buildup of the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Significantly, as asserted by me in an analysis in Eurasia Review, was the prospects of ASEAN Redundancy spurred by Indo Pacific security and geopolitical churning. ASEAN an economic grouping has shirked from condemnation of Communist China even when Beijing forcibly annexed Island Territories in South China Sea of Vietnam and Philippines--both ASEAN Nations.

Some may like to argue that this is debatable but it is my firm belief that Indo Pacific with increasing military belligerence of Communist China would not offer geopolitical space for 'Fence Sitters' or proponents of 'Strategic Non-Alignment'.

Concluding, it needs to be reminded that history is witness to the fact that whenever Revisionist Powers like Communist China emerge on the global stage the natural and logical culmination is the emergence of 'Security Coalitions'  which with increased military escalation graduate to 'Military Alliances'.

INDO PACIFIC ASIA 2021 NOTICEABLY HEAVILY POLARIZED AGAINST COMMUNIST CHINA

 Communist China which till a couple of years back was being perceived as a Superpower emerging in contention with the United States, has due to its mistakenly self-perceived empowerment down-slided in 2021 virtually to the designation of  Indo Pacific's notorious 'Regional Destabiliser'.

Indo Pacific in 2021 stands highly polarized against Communist China indulging in unprovoked aggression on its peripheries, both on land-borders and on maritime expanses of Indo Pacific.

Communist China has been in a high state of military confrontation and military clashes with India on the Himalayan Heights that border China Occupied Tibet, The intense China-India military confrontation can be gauged from over 50,000 Indian Army Armored Formations and Mechanized Forces confronting Communist China's military buildup.

Japan, the other Major Asian Power is being constantly politically and militarily coerced Communist China intruding into Senkaku Islands maritime space and Chinese submarines prowling around in Sea of Japan and Japan's Inland Sea.

South Korea which till lately was in an appeasement mode towards Beijing has now changed gears recognizing that the security environment of the Korean Peninsula  stands disturbed with Communist China itching for a military showdown with the United States in the South China Sea.

In end-2021, Taiwan faces the grim prospects of  Communist China undertaking a military invasion to annex Taiwan to Communist China rule mindless of  consequences of a military showdown with United States & Allies.

The volatility in South China Sea is well publicized and recorded of Communist China declaring its sovereignty over the entire maritime expanse. Vietnam and the Philippines have been victims of Communist Chinese military aggression.

ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia, earlier as 'fence-sitters' on Chinese aggression have lately tasted Communist Chinese aggressive intrusions into their territorial waters.

Globally, Communist China seems set on challenging the United States & The West not only in Indo Pacific more pointedly, but also distantly in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Geopolitical forces at play and sound strategic logic seems to have deserted Communist China's much touted strategic vision. It seems that heady with its exponential military power buildup of last two decades when United Sates was distracted by Iraq and Afghanistan, Beijing's 21st Century Emperor has reckoned that he can push China's military adventurism envelope further with an unsure United States still deciding the level of S checkmating of China.

Concluding, it needs to be pointed out that Communist China's gamble against United States and confrontations with India, Japan and Australia is already reaping an early harvest in form of QUAD & AUKUS.

The intensified trend of anti--Communist China security groupings above accompanied by other Indo Pacific Nations already in a state of marked polarization against Communist China as a result of China-generated multiple flash-points  bodes ill for Indo Pacific security and stability.

COMMUNIST CHINA'S AGGRESSIVE PROPENSITIES 2021 FACES PUSH-BACK BY UNITED STATES-LED SECURITY GROUPINGS QUAD AND AUKUS

The year 2021 will go down in history as the 'Tipping Point' when in response to Communist China's unrestrained aggressive propensities in the Indo Pacific, the 'Arc of Democracies' led by United States decisively  engaged themselves in a geopolitical  & strategic nuclear push-back against Beijing's predatory 'China Threat' menacing the Indo Pacific.

The geopolitical push-back against Beijing stands exemplified by two  Summit Meets of The QUAD leaders in 2021 and  the announcement of the formation of AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) Trilateral which has strategic nuclear overtones in the maritime domain. 

In 2021, reflecting the resolve of Indo Pacific Democracies push-back against Communist China, two Summit Meets of US President Joe Biden, Japanese PM Suga, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Indian PM Narendra Modi took place. The first meet was a 'Virtual Meet' in March 2021 and the second 'In Person' Summit Meet of The QUAD leaders took place in Washington in September last week.

The latter was preceded by the game changing announcement by United States of the formation of the AUKUS Trilateral which plans to equip Australia with six nuclear-power submarines over the next ten years by United States and UK , which already have nuclear submarines in their Navies. 

 Communist China's predatory aggressiveness in the Western Pacific and intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean rests mainly on the powerful Chinese PLA Navy which now has nuclear attack submarines, aircraft carriers and a large fleet of Destroyers and Frigates.

The AUKUS primarily will focus expectedly on imposing deterrence on China's use of unrestrained naval might in the Indo Pacific.

The global strategic community has since been engrossed in debating the sudden announcement of AUKUS existence and its relationship with the QUAD Security Dialogue.

Analytically, there should be no confusion on the intent and roles of QUAD Security Initiative and the AUKUS. The QUAD is a quadrilateral geopolitical security-oriented grouping comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India. QUAD is not a military alliance and therefore has potential of expansion. 

AUKUS for all realistic purposes is a Indo Pacific-centric military alliance comprising United States, UK and Australia concentrating in positioning a 'Trinity of Nuclear Submarines' in Indo Pacific to off-set China's naval predatory moves. Nuclear submarines with long distance endurance and silent operations will impose deterrence at China's littoral doorsteps and also challenge its intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

China has reacted violently to both these ominous developments of QUAD and AUKUS set in motion in the interests of safeguarding  Indo Pacific  security against the China Treat.

Concluding, one needs to stress that whatever diplomatic reasons are advanced by not specifically mentioning Communist China as the target of the QUAD and AUKUS, what is starkly evident is that both QUAD and AUKUS stand configured to confront the China Threat.

Should Communist China still persist in its 'Revisionist Impulses' in the Indo Pacific, as I have written elsewhere, these initial steps of 'Deterrence Imposition' on China's aggressiveness  by US-led Arc of Democracies could graduate into full-fledged 'China Containment Strategies'.

AUSTRALIA-INDIA COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP 2021 POSITIONED IN QUAD CONSTRUCT

Indo Pacific Security construct in 2021 stands distinctly defined by the QUAD Security Initiative or better termed as QUAD Coalition comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India.

Needless to reiterate that the strategic impulses that led to a revival of the QUAD in 2017 after lying dormant since 2007 was China's switch from 'Soft Power' strategies to exercise of 'Hard Power' military muscle options in conflictual flash-points across the Indo Pacific from India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet to the 'Seas'of the Western Pacific. 

Australia though lying distant from these conflictual areas did not escape China's disruptive strategic gaze for multiple reasons ranging from Australia's concerns on China's strategic intrusiveness into the South Pacific, Australia's concerns on China's South China Sea depredations and surfacing of China-instigated trade issues arising from Australia's geopolitical stances siding with United States and Japan.

In 2021, unlike in the past, when there were more strategic divergences between Australia and India, it has been observed that today there are more strategic convergences between Australia and India.

Australia and India strategic convergences for nearly a decade started evolving on the growing China Threat figuring commonly in both countries' Threat Perceptions.

In 2020, Australia and India finally decided to give concrete shape to their strategic convergences by signing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement which was to be the blueprint of enhanced security, defence and economic cooperation.

The significance of the Australia-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership lies not only in the bilateral context but more significantly in the wider context of the Indo Pacific Security construct of which the centerpiece now is the QUAD Coalition.

Till now, India had Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships in the QUAD Coalition only with the United States and Japan. With the same being signed with Australia now. India now is strategically intertwined with all the QUAD Coalition partners.

Besides the strategic and security advantages that flow in with this institutionalized Strategic Partnership, Australia and India stand to gain  significantly in economic cooperation, especially uranium supplies. Defence technology exchanges is another area earmarked for prioritization including Space Technologies.

Concluding, it needs to be significantly noted that with the intensification of security cooperation among the QUAD Coalition partners, China stands ruffled and seriously concerned to the point that in in official public assertions China is issuing veiled threats on QUAD's longevity.

 

INDIA AND THE PHILIPPINES ENHANCE SECURITY COOPERATION 2021 IN INDO PACIFIC SECURITY CONSTRUCT

 India took a significant leap in March 2021 when it decided to enhance security cooperation with The Philippines whose archipelago strategic configuration covers virtually the entire Eastern flank of the South China Sea and which is being subjected to constant maritime aggression by Beijing's Communist China Regime.

The Philippines has had a salience all along in the United States security architecture for the Western Pacific. Except for a short period when the Philippines succumbed to Chinese overtures, United States Navy had a major naval base at Subic Bay and a sizable US Air Force presence at Clarkes Air Base.

The Philippines after a brief dalliance with Communist China soon realized that China became only more aggressive in terms of occupation of Philippines islands/shoals. Communist China was encouraged to do so because it realized that during this period the Philippines had temporarily lost United States strategic gaze.

India's according a centrality to ASEAN Nations and India's increasing security cooperation with ASEAN Nations like Vietnam , Indonesia and Singapore encouraged the Philippines to look to India for security cooperation.

Also, both India and the Philippines had a shared history of territorial disputes with Communist China and China's propensity to settle territorial disputes by resort to unprovoke use of Chinese military force.

India and the Philippines signed a Government-to-Government Deal in March 2021 under which India agreed to supply the Philippines with five batteries of BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles for its coastal defence.

In addition, Philippines and India agreed to enhance security cooperation in various other fields, especially in terms of Naval Cooperation, Coast Guard Cooperation, joint training and access to more Indian Defence equipment purchases.

India' ties with Philippines stood relegated to the backwaters until 2014. PM Narendra Modi was the first Indian PM to visit the Philippines in 32 years.

Giving concrete shape to India's 'Look East Policy' with substantive security-oriented contours as 'Act East Policy'. with particular reference to South East Asia countries palpably under threat by China, the Modi Government has given impetus to enhance security ties with the Philippines. 

The strategic significance of enhanced security cooperation would have not been lost on Beijing's Communist China regime.

The Philippines acquisition of Indian BRAHMOS Cruise Missile with a range of 290 km would impart some degree of conventional deterrence against China's persistent maritime encroachments against the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Finally, in the overall construct of Indo Pacific Security this significant enhancement of security cooperation with yet another strategically significant ASEAN Nation would add to India's image as being a serious   of Regional Nett Security. 

UNITED STATES ABANDONS "WESTERN OUTPOST" OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN MID-AUGUST 2021

 The United States as the prime mover of Indo Pacific Security and The QUAD abandoned Afghanistan on August 15 2020 for the second time in over two decades and thereby abandoning the "Western Oupost" of Indo Pacific Security, so critical as a 'Strategic Pressure Point' against China's restive Western Regions.

The significance of Afghanistan for Indo Pacific Security was analysed by me in my Blogpost of June28 2020 titled "Afghanistan as Indo Pacific Security "Wetsern Outpost".

In my writings elsewhere, I have termed American abandonment of Afghanistan on August 15 2020 as United States "Munich Moment"--- capitualting to geopolitical pressures of the China-Pakistan-Russia Trilateral ---all three having strong convergences to generate a US-Exit from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan with US Military Forces embedded in this vital geostrategic Nation offered significant geopolitical and strategic advatages both to United States national security and also to Indo Pacific Security.

In relation to the China Threat which has been the catalyst for coalescing of Major Powers  to evolve groupings like The QUAD , Afghanistan provided a strong and potent "Strategic Prssure Point" against China's restive and vulnerable Western Regions.

Afghanistan in safe military protection of the United States offered a 'Firm Base' for the United States to influence events in Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia.

The United States by abandoning Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan-Russia Trilateral has thereby lost strong leverages against China mainly and so also Russia.  The UnitedStates also thereby loses leverages against Pakistan in relation to Pakistan once again facilitating creation of the Islamic Hub of Global Terrorism in Afghan Taliban rule Afghanistan.

At this moment while Aghanistan stands taken over by the Afgha Taliban by US-default for the second time, reports and visuals emanating from Afghanistan portend that Afghanistan is headed for another Civil War.

Civil War once again breaking out in Afghanistan may in its wake prompt the United States for no better alternative than for a third US Military Intervention.

Was it geopolitically and strategically wise therefore for "US Military Abandonment of Afghanistan 2.0" ?

SOUTH KOREA AS A WESTERN PACIFIC NATION CAN ILL-AFFORD TO BE ON WRONG SIDE OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY 2021

 Prevailing geopolitical realities in Western Pacific do not equip South Korea to stand on wrong side of history of Indo Pacific Security 2021 given its historical record of a 'Front Line State' against Communist China's expansionist designs right since Korean War of 1950s and Communist China currently again displaying the same propensity with greater intensity.

Wsetern Pacific geopolitical environment in 2021 as a crucial sub-text of overall Indo Pacific Security construct  currently presents a disturbing picture of Communist China establishing 'Full Spectrum dominance over South China Sea maritime expanse and air-space above it.

Needless to state that South China Sea is as vital for South Korea as it is vital for Japan in terms of sustaining the economies of both these Western Pacific 'economic power houses' of the Free World. The very survival of Japan and South Korea as Emerging Powers is dependeant on a 'Free & Open Indo Pacific' .

Japan is fully conscious and for decades has taken cognizance of the China Threat to Western Pacific so arising. Japan not only continues to be an enduring Ally since 1945 of the United States configured security architecture for the region in bilateral terms but also in multilateral terms as evident from its pivotal role in the QUAD comprising United States, Japan, India and Australia.

South Korea while equally continuing bilaterally as a US Ally in 2021, however, shirks or fights shy from any United States security initiatives for a multilateral security framework for Western Pacific comprising United States, Japan and South Korea.

South Korea notably gets inhibited in this direction for only one reason and that is because of Japan against which South Korea still bears a grudge of 'historical wrongs' of Japanese colonial role over South Korea from 1910-45 and allegations of use of South Korean 'comfort women' during Second World War.

Historically, by the same token, how has South Korea given a geopolitical go-by to Communist China which brutally overun South Korea in 1950 all the way to Pusan at the Southern tip of the Korean Peninsula.

Yet in the last decade or so South Korea's political leaders were cosying upto Communist China lured by Beijing's inducements of South Korean access to the vast Chinese market.

South Korea was recsued from a certain ChineseCommunist rule if United States had not made a massive and decisivemilitary intervention on the Korean Penisula with Japan unreservedly providing the military 'Firm Base' for US Armed Forces deployed to rescue South Korea.

Having been Military, Naval & AirAttache accredited to South Korea while posted in Tojyo, Japan and having had the privilege of witnesing the economic and military resurgence of South Korea in early 1980s and first hand interaction with South Korean Armed Forces including successive US-ROK TEAM SPIRIT Exercises then conducted on massive scale, it becomes unfathomable for me to witness South Korea riding in 'two geopolitcal boats'. Can South Korea strategically afford it in 2021 especially ?

To put it bluntly as an ardent well-wisher of both South Korea and Japan my blunt question to South Korean political leaders and policy establishment is that does South Korea really feel assured that in the event of Communist China blocking South China Sea to strangle Japan and prompt US Militaryy exit from Western Pacific. would Communist China makean honourable exception for South Korea in that event?

Therein lies the answer for South Korea to reset its policies on Communist China. South Korea needs to face the stark reality that it is Communist China that has aided North Korea to equip itself with Nuclear Weapons and delivery-means of IR BallisticMissiles endangering not only South Korean security but also security of the Indo Pacific as a region.

Before rounding off on the subject no one better than South Korea's first Militaryy ruler can be quoted . General Park who realised this truism fully and opted for masive Japanese economic investmens for South Korea's economic reconsruction much against domestic opposition with perceived wrongs against Japan still afresh. 

South Korea's economic resurgence took place with Japnese investments and US security umbrella---- is a historical fact that  South Korea can ill afford.

In the unfolding geopolitical threatening scenarios scripted by Communist China evident in 2021, South Korea can ill-afford to be on the wrong side of history, It must stand unitedly tall with United Sttes and Japan aginst the China Threat. 

The future of Wesyern Pacific security against the China Threat lies intertwined in united responses by UnitedStates, Japan and notably South Korea

TAIWAN'S AS INDEPENDENT NATION AN OVERIDING IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Indo Pacific Security in 2021 geopolitical context and perspectives likely to unfold in decades beyond dictate that it is an inescapable imperative for United States and its QUAD strategic partners to ensure that Taiwan continues as an independent Nation.

Taiwan's independence was compromised by the Nixon Adminstration in early 1970s under influence of his National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger.

 In a political outreach smacking of abject appeasement of Communist China to normalise relations with the United States the Nixon Adminstration conceded China's demand that United States make a policy declaration of "One China Two Systems".

Implicitly, the United States had conceded that China's sovereignty extended to Taiwan though Taiwan had a different political system.

In 2021, Communist China is not the Communist China of 1972 which was determined to play the China Card with the United States in order to square off against the Former USSR with which it had adversarial relations.

Despite US Adminstrations after President Nixon adhered to 'One China Policy' repetitively even after  Communist Chinese succeeding Beijing Regimes switched to adoption of 'Hard Power' strategies directed at undermining US National Security interests in Indo Pacific and those of US Alies and strategic partners.

Objectively theefore, with Communist China ceasing to be a 'Responsible Stakeholder' in Indo Pacific Security and global security , a strong case exists for United States to dispense with the premises that prompted it to give-in to Communist China's demands on Taiwan's status.

In 2021, Communist China has emerged as a "Serious & Potent Threat" to Indo Pacific Security and intent on imposing a hegemonistic 'Chinese Order' over Indo Pacific Region going by its demonstrated aggressive brinkmanship of the last decade.

The United States now has to urgently repudiate its 1972 policy declaration and assert that "Taiwan ia an Independent Nation" and that Taiwan's independence will be secured by international guarantees.

Major Powers of Indo Pacific seem to be already moving in this direction as evidenced by the recent Taiwan-Japan Dialogue.

Taiwan always figured in US military calculations as United States "Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier" in the Western Pacific. This truism is even far more significant in 2021 when China is provokingly using military coercion and intimidation by sizeable threatening intrusions in Taiwanese airspace.

Should China miscalculate United States determination on Taiwan and Taiwan is taken over by Chinese military intervention then the United States might as well exit from the Western Pacific.

United States making a military exit from Western Pacific consequent to China's take over of Taiwan would mark the final nail in the coffin of a 'Decline of United States as a Global Power'.

Would the Major Powers of the Indo Pacific and Nations partnering them countenance the eventuality of a United States exit from the Western Pacificand Indo Pacific as a whole?

Asian capitals when faced with a stark choice of supporting United States moves to assert 'Taiwan as an Independent Nation' or the prsospects of a China Hegemonistic Order' in Indo Pacific would undoubtedly support the United States.

China's retaliations in response to the Free World supporting Taiwan'sindependence by military intervention will have to be resolutely met in the manner that the US&Allies militarily confronted Hitler's Germany after 1939.

 

JAPAN'S MULTI-PRONGED STRATEGY TO NEUTRALISE 'CHINA THREAT' TO INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Japan stands out uniquely as the only Asian Nation which boldly faced the 'Soviet Threat'   to Asia Pacific security' alongside  the United States during the 20th Century Cold War. Japan is once again seen now boldly facing the "China Threat" alongside the United States in the evolving 21st Century Cold War.

For Japan, the 21st Century Cold War "China Threat" unlike the 20th Century Cold War is far more threatening to Japan's overall security , more lethal and explosive. 

 Not only Japanese waters and airspace are offensivly intruded into by China but Japan's life-lines of SLOCs through South China Sea are being threatened by China.

China under President Xi Jinping is displaying enhanced propensity to resort to military  force to enforce its misperceived writs.Chinese military brinkmanship is glaringly visible against Vietnam and Philippines in South China Sea and military intervention threats against Taiwan. 

Testimony to China's aggressi impulses range from India's Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet to Japanese Senkaku Islands. 

Asia Pacific Security of the 20th Century stands replaced by a far wider construct of Indo Pacific Security in 21st Century--- a canvas that encompasses both the PacificOcean and the Indian Ocean and the Nations that lay astride these littorals.

Unlike the Soviet Threat in which Japan was drawn-in because of the ideological tussle and power-play between Russia and the United States, the "China Threat" is radically different.

The "China Threat" that Japan is facing today incorporates both the China-Japan territorial disputes and so also China's bid to oust US Forward Militray Presence in the Western Pacific, basically Japan, to establish its 'Full Spectrum Dominance' over the entire Western Pacific.

Japan's 'National Survival' depends not only on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Japan but also that the Region remans a "Free & Open Indo Pacific" not vulnerable to Chinese aggression,and Chinese political and military coercion..

Japan unlike the UnitedStates was even more alive to the "China Threat" and had started improving its security postures virtually from the turn of the Millenium----gradually and imperceptibly to begin with-----but markedly and unapologetically visible in 2021.

Japan's multi-pronged strategy to boldly face  the 'China Threat" stated above perceptionally incorporates the following thrust-lines (1) Strengthen and Reinforce its US-Japan Mutual Security links and mechanisms (2) Participate actively in all dimensions of US Security Architecture for Western Pacific (3) Reinforce and Expand US-led Security Template for Overall Indo Pacific Security (4) Military Capacity-buildup of Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines whose islands pssessions in South China Sea have been forcibly occupied by China (5) Defence build-up and enhancement of Japan's self-relaint defence and military deterrence capabilities.

Reflective of the above is evidenced by Japan's pivotal role in US-led QUAD, Strategic Partnerships with India and Australia, Defence ties with NATO and Major European Nations, and Japanese Navy presence  in the Gulf of Aden region.

In terms of Japanese deterrence there appears a greater effort by Japan for security in domains of Space, Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare---all the domains in which China is attempting supremacy.

Japanese military hardware emanating from Japan'sown advanced indigenous production capabilities of advanced fighter aircraft, helicopter assault ships capable of being converted to aircraft carriers with VSTOL Fighter aircraft , naval ships etc. also stand supplemented by adavanced US military systems.

Notably, under the last Japanese PM Shino Abe Japan took a significant turn away from the fetters of its Peace Constitution to participate pro-actively in wider military participation in distant areas.

Significantly, the latest "Defense of Japan" White Paper 2021 Document, much to the chagrin of China, asserts that Taiwan's security and stability is a a Japanese security concern.

Dramatically, in the fields of Japan's security policies and outlook there is a 'New Spirit' reflected on the 2021 Ink-Sketch on the Document's Cover----- "The Samurai has Risen"

 

CHINA-PAKISTAN AXIS PROPOSES A "QUINTET" OF SINO-ISLAMIC NATIONS TO COUNTER US-LED "QUAD"

The China -Pakistan Axis is seemingly involved in a proposal, reflective of Samuel Huntington's ;Clash of Civilisations' thesis of a likely Sino- Islamic Strategic Coalition to counter the dominance of the Western Civilsation in global affairs.

The China-Pakistan Axis proposed"QUINTET' Strategic Coalition is to counterbalance the US-led "QUAD" Strategic Initiative comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India taking concrete shape to manage the rising China Threat in the Indo Pacific Region.

The China-led QUINTET in its ultimate form envisages a coalition of China, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey to counter-balace the QUAD. This ultimate coalition was initially to be formed by a Counter-Quad of China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Turkey for reasons uknown is being considered as a final addittion  to the Counter-Quad to form the QUINTET.

The QUINTET proposal was first aired by Pakistan's note economist Shahid Javid Burki in his Opinion Column in Pakistan's English newspaper The Express Tribune on  July 12 2021 titled 'Afghanistan :a possible component of counter-quad or a quintet". Shahid Javid Burki has been eralier Pakistan's Finance Minister and also has had a stint as Vice Preident of the World Bank in Washington.

Given Burki's standing, and with his present writing on geopolitical perspectives overtaking his geoeconomic writings forte', leads one to believe that the QUINTET kite-flying, if it is indeed kite-flying, could have only emerged with some prodding by the Pakistani Establishment and also some interaction with China.

Burki's last paragraph is notable. He asserts that "The US Quad was to constrain China and bind China; the China-led Quad could relaese Chinese energies to the world to the West. Including Turkey in the configuration would result in the proposed counter-quadto become a QUINTET".

Analytically, a Chinese riposte to the QUAD was expected and so also its broad contours, as spelt out above. However, the crucial determinant of the longevity of the initial Counter Quad and its later  evolution as QUINTET is debatable.

Let us first look at the contemporary impulses which have nudged China and Pakistan in the direction of forming the Counter Quad and its later end-version of the QUINTET.

Geopolitically, in 2021, China and Pakistan stand virtually isolated diplomatically. China with its propensity for unprovoked aggression from Indian Hi,alayas to South China Sea is being labelled as "Disruptive State" undermining Indo Pacific security.

Pakistan is being viewed and type-casted as a Chinese satellite stae on lines of North Korea bereft of  long-standingUS support.  Pakistan now has China as its policy helmsman.

Pakistan and China too with the xeit of US Forces from Afghanistan fear addittional strategic challenges to the China-Pakistan  CPEC which is the flgship project of Cnina in Pakistan besides CPEC being the most vital component of China's grandiose global Belt & Road Blueprint.

At first glance the China-led Counter Quad or its end-version of the QUINTET composition suggets that in terms of Naval Balance against the US-led QUAD the Chinese-led Counter Quad or QUINTET will be inadeqaute in countering QUAD's naval operations potency both in Pacific Ocean and in Indian Ocean.

In terms of geographical landspread the QUINTET looks impressive with potential of great geopolitical counterweight against yhe United States and the QUAD,.

But the comparison of the strategic effectiveness of a China-led QUINTET ends when its longevity is measured on thescale of its enduringcaolition-cohesion envisgaed by China-Pakistan Axis?

China and Pakistan are the only predictable entities in the proposed QUINTET in that both these nations are inextricably bound together by their adversarial pstures against a rising India.

Iran may have signed a 25 year Comprehensive Strategic Parnership with China but this has to be viewed as more of a tactical ploy to gain leverages in its dealing with United States. The longevuty of China-Iran Strategic Partnership is open to question.

Afghaistan is in turmoil and Pakistan Army can be expected to prolong this turmoil  until it gets full control of Afghanistan's decision-making setup. Even in that eventuality, Afghanistan is likely to be in turmoil challenging Pakistan's overlordship.

Turkey despite its seemingly strong policy stances against the United States has till date showed no inclination to "Renounce" its membership of US-led NATO Military Alliance.

What then emerges to the fore is that neither in terms of its geopolitical configurations nor its longevity a China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET can seriously imbalance the US-led QUAD. The QUAD Security Initaitive is likely to draw-in more Nations in the Coalition.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that sheer  commonality of present Islamic Nations adversarial stances against the United States cannot provide the glue for an effective China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET to emerge as an effective strategic counterweight to the QUAD.

 

GERMANY'S IMPERATIVES FOR SYMBOLIC NAVAL PRESENCE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AGAINST CHINA

Germany noticeably seems to have abstained from marking its naval presence in South China Sea unlike the French Navy and British Navy. France and Great Britain had recently sent Aircraft Carrier Group/ Amphibious Warships to South China Sea. 

This was an expression of solidarity with other Major Powers' Navies led by United States challenging China's military adventurism in reinforcing its illegal sovereignty over the South China Sea maritime expanse.

Geopolitically, can Germany afford to stand aside from the global effort to signal China that it cannot recklessly continue to disreagard international conventions like UNCLOS and The Hague TribunalAward which ruled against China's claims of sovereignty over South China Sea?

Can Germany afford to break ranks with NATO and the European Union's revised perspectives on China evolving as a 'Threat to European Stability' in the coming decade?

Germany may have got away with its 'China Hands-off Policy' of past decades. But in the rapidly churning geopolitical global landscape, Germany will have to take a stand against China.

China has brought on itself the spectre of intense global geopolitical polarisation against China by its reckless aggression extending from India's Eastern Ladakh to South China Sea and forcible military occupation of Islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines,

Germany in 2021 has to seriously and crucially weigh whether it can still persist to stand aside unlike Major Powers like France, Great Britain, India, Japan and Australia which are coalescing together to ensure 'Freedom of Naviagtion' in South China Sea and the Airspace over it.

Even Canada has recently exercised with other Navies in South China Sea.

Therefore, in terms of Trans-Atlantic Alliance and in terms of European Major Powers solidarity , it is incumbent on Germany to mark German Navy presence in South China Sea without further dithering. 

Germany may also addittionally like to deliberate on whether it can bear the 'perceptional costs' of loss of image in Asian Capitals by inadvertently getting type-casted as permissive of China's military aggression in South China Sea.

 

AFGHANISTAN AS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY "WESTERN OUTPOST"

Afghanistan's strategic significance as "Western Outpost" for Indo Pacific Security seems to have received little notice while the United States was planning a hurried exit of US Forces from that war-ravaged Nation leaving a 'strategic void' which China seems to be in a tearing hurry to fill.

China with a colonial vice-grip hold over Pakistan has now locked Iran in a strategic embrace of a 25 years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership formailsed in 2021.

China with a "Collusive" Pakistan and a "Permissive" Iran has now positioned itself to motivate Afghanistan with economic largesse' inducements to move into China's orbit, thereby enlarging the China-Pakistan-Iran Trilateral into a China-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan Quadrilateral.

The above evolving geopolitical grouping creates severe strategic iplications for the United States with China as the contender for global dominance in confrontation with the United States and also serious complications for Indo Pacific Security as a whole.

Reflected in my Tweets to @POTUS was that US Planners when now scrutinising the Indo Pacific Region maps in their War-rooms should be struck by the magnitude of the vast landmass stretching from the Korean Peninsula and extending upto the Eastern Littoral of The Gulf as one geograhical contiguous whole, significantly under China's domination.

In terms of maritime control significance impacting Indo Pacific Security the above configuration facilitates two crucial Naval Bases available to China --- Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar in Iran. This would facilitate China to dominate the Northern Arabian Sea segment of the Indian Ocean.

The United States to safeguard and protect Indo Pacific security interests can turn the tables on China by elevating Afghanistan's  significance in the US strategic calculus as the 'Western Outpost" of Indo Pacific Security.

US Forward Military Presence (FMP), on the lines of FMPs in Japan and South Korea, positioned in Afghanistan would affored the United States an "Eagles Perch" to sustain its Superpower capability to geopolitically determine events in Pakistan and Iran besides maintaining a "Threat in Being" against China's vulnerable Western Regions.

With such capabilities the Indo Pacific Security Template would not be restricted to containment of China in maritime domains only but also contribute to pre-emption of China's domination of the Eurasian Heartland landmass.

The United States in 2021 would be ill-advised to 'Foreclose" its Afghnaistan strategic options available for containment of Chinese expansionism.

UNITED STATES & RUSSIA SUSTAINED SUMMIT EXCHANGES IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

Contextually viewing Indo Pacific troubled security environment in 2021 arising from China's unrestrained military aggressiveness and brinkmanship, and placing the same against the backdrop of the United States and Russia having significant stakes in Indo Pacific stability, strong imperatives exist that the Presidents of United States and Russia engage in Summit Meets to review Indo Pacific security.

The Geneva Summit held last week between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Putin needs to be welcomed as a welcome step in this direction. It does not need much emphasis to state that both the United States and Russia have significant stakes in Indo Pacific stability by virtue of being giant littoral States of the Pacfic.

Furthermore, it needs to be singularly highlighted that even at the height of intense US-USSR  Cold War Superpowers  confrontation in theAsia Pacific and sizeable Navy deployments of both these Superpowers in the Pacific, there was a marked restraint by both the United States and Russia not to indulge in needless military adventurism of the type and magnitude that China has been indulging in ever since 2012.

Conteporaneously, Russia in a Strategic Nexus with China gets perceptionally typecasted as "Collusive", and at best, "Permissive" of China's military expansionsim in the Indo Pacific. This dents Russia's image in Asian capitals and that sort of image Russia can ill-afford if it wishes to regain the exalted position of being an 'inependent power centre in gobal affairs'.

Russia also has to be mindful of the strategic reality that China has clashing interests with Russia in Europe, Central Asia, Far East and now in Greater South West Asia  in the vacuum ensuing on exit of US Forces from Afghanistan.

Russia today has no significant leverages over China either to secure Russia against China encroaching on its traditional turfs in Russia's Near Abroad or Russia's Far East where illigal Chinese migrants nearly a million strong have ensconced them.

Nor can Russia exercise restaint on China's military adventurism in Indo Pacific by itself alone. This has led Russia to be tagged as China's 'B Team'.

The UnitedStates comparitively is well placed to impose some deterence on China by virtue of its security architecture in Indo Pacific and especailly with the emergence of the QUAD.

With China inevitably heading into an Armed Conflict with United States, would Russia be willing to underwrite China's military expansionism in Indo Pacific or militarily aid China in a potential War with United States?

The obvious answer is a big NO.

Admittedly it takes two to tango and that the United States has not been able to 'Reset' its Russia-policy in a mould promotive of inducing 'strategic trust' but then contemporary geopolitics dictate that both the United States and Russia  strive to work together and be seen as working together to maintain security and stability in the Indo Pacific.

Towards the above end,  strong imperatives exist for United States and Russia to engage themselves in sustained Summit Meets regularly. 

 

INDIA STRONGLY REAFFIRMS ITS COMMITTMENT TO FREE & OPEN INDO PACIFIC & QUAD

  China-India relations are at the lowest point in 2021 foloowing China's persistent strategy to generate continuing turbulence in India's security environment, military confrontation on the Northern Borders and pussy-footing on de-escalation in Eastern Ladakh post- May 2020 India's pushback at Galwan.

China contextually therefore was cautioned by Indian Foreign Minister in the following telling words: " Now if you disturb peace and tranquillity, if there is intimidation and friction at the border, obviously its going to tell on the relationship. So my honest answer to you is that  I think the relationship (China-India) is at the crossroads. The border tensions cannot continue with cooperation in other areas."

Referring to the QUAD, the Indian Foreign Minister  asserted that  "With passage of time any initiative will mature" and that the "QUAD's agenda is expanding". Moving ahead as to why the QUAD is a strategic necessity the Indian Foreign Minister stated that " So the QUAD fills a gap that cannot be addressed simply by four bilateral relationships aggregated".

The last sentence in my opinion is most noteworthy in that it sums up  India's future directions namely that in view of China's expansionist impulses and China's intransigent moves of subjecting borders with India to ignition point levels, India has no option but to opt for multilateral security initiatives especially in the maritime domains.

The Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh addressing the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meet yesterday asserted that India strongly stands for a 'Free & Open Indo Pacific" and further reinforced it with assertion that India supports "freedom of navigation and overflights in the South China Sea"

Continuing on the South China Sea , the Indian Defence Minister made the following observations: (1) South China Sea developments have attarcted attention beyond the region (2) Code of Conduct negotiations between ASEAN and China would lead to positive outcomes consonnant with international law and UNCLOS (3) Maritime security has become a concern for India and international community (4) Sea Lanes of Communication are essential for peace, security and prosperity of Indo Pacific.

Reinforcing India's approaches to Indo Pacific challenging security environment and India's policy approaches thereon,, the Indian Defence Minister notably stated that  " India strengthened ts cooperative engagements in the Indo Pacific based on converging views and visions of peace, stability and prosperity in the region"I

India has not only been really  pushed into a corner by China's highly provocative  military moves on India's Northern Borders accompanied by China's increasing intrusive naval moves in the Indian Ocean but also alarmed China's maritime creep in South China Sea  which extends upto Malacca Straits at India's doorstep

Therefore, the overall message from India to China is putting China on notice that India will enhance, reinforce and widen its security cooperative engagements in Indo Pacific as manifested by increased security cooperation with ASEAN Nations and more significantly the QUAD.

Significantly, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghai and US Defense Secretary LlyodAustin were attending this Defence Ministers' Summit. 

The import of India's implicit references to China degrading the peaceful security environment in Indo Pacific and South China Sea would have been noted by Chinese Defence Minister.

The United States would be heartened by India's emerging policy stances on Indo Pacific security, the QUAD and India's call for a "Free & Open Indo Pacific"---an Indian resonance of United States policy stances.

ASEAN NATIONS CONTEXTUALLY AT GEOPOLITICAL CROSSROADS ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN 2021

ASEAN Nations seem stranded in 2021 at vexing geopolitical crossroads wherein China stands in gross military violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity of nearly half of ASEAN nations, China has been diplomatically successful so far in dividing ASEAN unity, and the ASEAN Nations consequently still  dithering timidly on pro-actively siding with external Major Powers capable of restraining China.

Geopolitical dynamics in a fast churning Indo Pacific security environment offers no luxury of 'dithering' against national or regional security threats. ASEAN as the regional grouping of South East Asia nations has so far not given any indication of a 'pushback' against the China Threat, other than by Vietnam and the Philippines.

Geopolitically, in Indo Pacific Asia of which ASEAN Nations comprise the most crucial strategic segment, and wherein the Chna Threat is most pronounced, Major Powers are coalescing together to form counterweights to restrain China's expansionism.

ASEAN Nations neither individually nor collectively in 2021 seem to have military capabilities to stop China in its tracks of military expansionism. China shows scant regard for UN Conventions or rulings against China on its South China Sea claims as given by The Hague International Tribunal on Philippines case against China.

ASEAN's disunity on vociferous condemnation of South China Sea aggresions by China against Vietnam and the Philippines only emboldened China. But lately when China subjected ASEAN fence-sitters like Indonesia and Malaysia to a continuum of China's widening expansionist designs in South China Sea, some belated moves towards ASEAN's unified approaches against China seem to be in the offing.

Any belated ASEAN unified approaches against China unaccopanied by solid backing by Major Powers external to ASEAN grouping, will not count much with China in 2021, contextually.

Imperatives exist for ASEAN in 2021 to undertake a realistic reading and appraisal of contextual geopolitical dynamics both at the global level and ore specifically in the Inddo PacificRegion.

China in 2021 is in a 'Collision Trajectory' with the United States which is the predominant Global Power and to which Indo Pacific security and stability counts most. From accumulated indicators it seems that China can be expected to be reckless in challenging United States both regionally and globally.

The Western Pacific contains multiple 'explosive flash-points' which have the incendiary potential of igniting an US-China armed conflict. Such a conflict would have wider ramifications.

In the above scenario where armed conflict breaks out at ASEAN's doorsteps can ASEAN Nations afford to stand as mute witnesses paralysed into inaction because of past dithering on the China Threat.

Concluding, it can be analytically asserted that ASEAN's geopolitical and strategic choices in 2021 are not all that  complex and vexing. In terms of contextual geopolitical dynamics, ASEAN cannot afford to be on the wrong side of history. 

China is certainly not on the right side of history in terms of Indo Pacific security and stability. 

CHINA'S DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN TO PRESSURISE INDIA TO QUIT "QUAD"

China being rattled by India's membership of the QUAD-Quadrilateral Security Initiative  basically stems from the strategic reality that China perceives that India adds substantive geopolitical and strategic ballast to QUAD as a deterrent force altering the balance of power against China in 2021. 

China consequently seems to have stepped up a disinformation campaign within India by exploiting some sections of Indian polity, media and columnists to sell the Chinese narrative that India would be vwell advised to quit the QUAD as it is not a sustainable concept and that India could end up as a gopolitical loser in the end game.

The Chinese narrative advanced by such Indian media analyses argues primarily that (1)China is an ascendant power on a trajectory that would lead it to Superpower status (2)The United States is a "Declining Power" whose global predominance is shrinking (3)  Amongst the QUAD nations, India is the only nation that shares land-borders with China and thus positioned to exert military coercive pressures on India (4) The Indian Navy is weak and incaable of taking the Chinese Navy head-on.

In a nutshell China is attempting to sow doubts within India that India by opting for an active role in the QUAD is on the 'losing side'.

Analytically., the above narrative appears to be a 'Disinformation Campaign' by China within India to  influence Indian public opinion not only against the QUAD of which India is now an active participant but also against the US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership --the "Oyster"  from which QUAD has emerged.

Why I term this as a Chinese 'Disinformation Campaign' can be proved by a few short sentences which blows the entire rationale outlined above to bits and pieces. 

Firstly, China may be an ascendant power but that is only by the size of its military arsenal. In 2021, China stands geopolitically diminished by China's acts of omission and commission. They stand well publicised from South China Sea to India's Himalayan Ladakh.

Secondly, the United States is not a 'Declining Power' as China would like the world to believe. China's geopolitical, military and economic asymmetries with the United States still do not equip China to liquidate United States global predominance. and its influence toshape global events. 

Thirdly, China unlike past decades, is in 2021, not in a position to militarily coerce India as India's pushback against China in Eastern Ladakh in June 2020 would lucidly illustrate.

Fourthly, the Indian Navy is a potent Navy which can effectively interdict China's Sea Lanes of Communication in theIndian Ocean on which China relies for its energy supplies and trade. Indian Navy has even made its presence felt at China's doorstep in South China Sea.

Besides the bove strategic realiites, what cannot be overlooked is that China has no comparative security grouping to offer as counterweight against the QUAD nor can one envisage one on the horizon.

Concluding, China would be well advised to recognise that within India when it comes to choosing India's 'Strategic Partners' , if the choice is between China and the United States, then Indian public opinion would predominantly rely on the United States as India's preferred 'Strategic Partner".

•  

"QUAD"S SALIENCE FROM SECURITY GROUPING TO GEOPOLITICAL CONSTRUCT ALARMS CHINA CONSIDERABLY

China noticeably in recent weeks stands alarmed considerably after the Virtual QUAD Summit of top political  leaders added enlarged  geopolitical contours spanning wider domains to its earlier intended construct as a mere security grouping.

In doing so the QUAD's apex political leaders of the United States, India, Japan and Australia have robbed China of its strident criticism that the QUAD was a military grouping aimed at China and dividing the Indo Pacific into ColdWar divides.

The QUAD's main intended purpose of integrating the Navies of the QUAD Nations through institutionalised mechanisms to provide existential deterrence to China's aims of dominating the Western Pacificand similar long term of the Indian Ocean remains unchanged.

The new construct being given to the QUAD envisages widening and extending QUAD Naations cooperation to Cybersecurity, Terrorism and  Diasaster Relief.

More noticeably, QUAD Nations are venturing into the economic field cooperation by Supply Chain Resilience Initiative whose main aim is to replace China-centric supply chains dependence  by alternative supply chains.

The above would greatly dilute China's economic power to strategically exploit economically weaker nations and so also China's economic strengths. 

While geopolitical constructs will impart to the QUAD contours other than a mere military grouping  but essentially the core aim remains China-containment, even though not stated so bluntly.

Significantly, the QUAD's widening its scope to one of an overall geopolitical construct would make it easier for a country like India to a more active and salient participation as a pivotal pillar of the QUAD.

Addedly this enalargement of cooperation aims could make it easier for other Indo PacificNations to join the QUAD who otherwise did not seem to be seen on he opposing side of a China-contaiment divide.

Concluding, it  needs to be highlighted that instead of allaying China's fears the trnasformation of the QUAD has raised more pronounced alarms in China going by latest pronouncements of Chinese Premier, Foreign Minister and official spokespersons. 

 

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INDO PACIFIC NATIONS INTENSELY POLARISED AGAINST CHINA

China in 2021 finds itself in the unenviable position of facing at her dorsteps an intensely polarised Indo Pacific security environment ranged against China. China has itself to blame for generating this polarisation with its own acts of wanton disreagrd of its neigbours sovereignties and China's imperialistic impulses of a 'Revisionist Power'. 

China as I always have maintained in my writins for last two decades has no 'Natural Allies' to boast of, with exception of North Korea and Pakistan, whose authoritarian regimes have been beholden to China for assisting them in creation of their Nuclear Weapons arsenal and Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles arrsenal.

China in 2021 is visibly in open confrontation with the United States as the reigning Superpower with legitimate vital security interests in th Western Pacific which provide the Outer Perimeter of defence and security of Homeland United States.

Chinna has tried over the last decade to perpetuate a myth in Indo Pacific that the United States is a "Declining Power' and incapable of being a Nett Provider of security of Indo Pacific.

China succeeded in this direction for some time as the United States stood strategically distracted by its military interventions in Iraq earlier and Afghanistan thereafter.

With the advent of  Chinese President Xi Jinping in power in 2013, China emerged markedly as a Major Power intent on two aims of attaining 'Strategic Equivalence' with United States and emerge as the Second Pole in the global security calculus and in the proces also ensure that the United States exits the Western Pacific.

The Uited States belatedly woke up to the above strategic realities and US President Trump set the American ball rolling in terms of US-China Tad Wars and revamping the US Forward Military Presnce in Indo Pacific.

President Biden too has also opted to pursue United States 'Hard Line' policies against China belying Chinese expectations to the contray

Tangentially, India which has had a conflictual history with China and was not openly inclined to be seen in any containment mode of China has since 2017 veered arond to join the QUAD grouping of United States, Japan,and Australia.

Similarly ASEAN which had amjor fence-sitters  watching the evolving US-China Great Game in Indo Pacific and dithered when China illegally occupied Vietnam's and Philippines' Islands are awakening up to the harsh reality that China afterall is not a benign stakeholder in regional security.

More notably, China's military expansionism and scant regard for international norms and conventions while scrambling to emerge as a Sperpower has raised strategic hackles as far as NATO and the Euopean Union.

NATO and European Union's Major Powers have not only expressed security concerns on China's miliary  brinkmanship in Indo Pacific but have asserted that their Navies will  make a presence in the South China Sea along with QUAD Navies,

Significantly therefore, in mid-2021 the security environment of the Indo Pacific stands marked by an intense polarisation of Indo Pacific nations ranged against China in which NATO and European Union nations are also joining-in.

China does not seem to be far perurbed by this polarisation at the moment but this polarisation carries serious implications for China in terms of a major armed conflict i Indo Pacific, in which China cannot hope to come out as a victor.