INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : AFGHANISTAN AS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY "WESTERN OUTPOST"

Monday, June 28, 2021

AFGHANISTAN AS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY "WESTERN OUTPOST"

Afghanistan's strategic significance as "Western Outpost" for Indo Pacific Security seems to have received little notice while the United States was planning a hurried exit of US Forces from that war-ravaged Nation leaving a 'strategic void' which China seems to be in a tearing hurry to fill.

China with a colonial vice-grip hold over Pakistan has now locked Iran in a strategic embrace of a 25 years Comprehensive Strategic Partnership formailsed in 2021.

China with a "Collusive" Pakistan and a "Permissive" Iran has now positioned itself to motivate Afghanistan with economic largesse' inducements to move into China's orbit, thereby enlarging the China-Pakistan-Iran Trilateral into a China-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan Quadrilateral.

The above evolving geopolitical grouping creates severe strategic iplications for the United States with China as the contender for global dominance in confrontation with the United States and also serious complications for Indo Pacific Security as a whole.

Reflected in my Tweets to @POTUS was that US Planners when now scrutinising the Indo Pacific Region maps in their War-rooms should be struck by the magnitude of the vast landmass stretching from the Korean Peninsula and extending upto the Eastern Littoral of The Gulf as one geograhical contiguous whole, significantly under China's domination.

In terms of maritime control significance impacting Indo Pacific Security the above configuration facilitates two crucial Naval Bases available to China --- Gwadur in Pakistan and Chah Bahar in Iran. This would facilitate China to dominate the Northern Arabian Sea segment of the Indian Ocean.

The United States to safeguard and protect Indo Pacific security interests can turn the tables on China by elevating Afghanistan's significance in the US strategic calculus as the 'Western Outpost" of Indo Pacific Security.

US Forward Military Presence (FMP), on the lines of FMPs in Japan and South Korea, positioned in Afghanistan would affored the United States an "Eagles Perch" to sustain its Superpower capability to geopolitically determine events in Pakistan and Iran besides maintaining a "Threat in Being" against China's vulnerable Western Regions.

With such capabilities the Indo Pacific Security Template would not be restricted to containment of China in maritime domains only but also contribute to pre-emption of China's domination of the Eurasian Heartland landmass.

The United States in 2021 would be ill-advised to 'Foreclose" its Afghnaistan strategic options available for containment of Chinese expansionism.

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister