ASEAN NATIONS CONTEXTUALLY AT GEOPOLITICAL CROSSROADS ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN 2021

ASEAN Nations seem stranded in 2021 at vexing geopolitical crossroads wherein China stands in gross military violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity of nearly half of ASEAN nations, China has been diplomatically successful so far in dividing ASEAN unity, and the ASEAN Nations consequently still  dithering timidly on pro-actively siding with external Major Powers capable of restraining China.

Geopolitical dynamics in a fast churning Indo Pacific security environment offers no luxury of 'dithering' against national or regional security threats. ASEAN as the regional grouping of South East Asia nations has so far not given any indication of a 'pushback' against the China Threat, other than by Vietnam and the Philippines.

Geopolitically, in Indo Pacific Asia of which ASEAN Nations comprise the most crucial strategic segment, and wherein the Chna Threat is most pronounced, Major Powers are coalescing together to form counterweights to restrain China's expansionism.

ASEAN Nations neither individually nor collectively in 2021 seem to have military capabilities to stop China in its tracks of military expansionism. China shows scant regard for UN Conventions or rulings against China on its South China Sea claims as given by The Hague International Tribunal on Philippines case against China.

ASEAN's disunity on vociferous condemnation of South China Sea aggresions by China against Vietnam and the Philippines only emboldened China. But lately when China subjected ASEAN fence-sitters like Indonesia and Malaysia to a continuum of China's widening expansionist designs in South China Sea, some belated moves towards ASEAN's unified approaches against China seem to be in the offing.

Any belated ASEAN unified approaches against China unaccopanied by solid backing by Major Powers external to ASEAN grouping, will not count much with China in 2021, contextually.

Imperatives exist for ASEAN in 2021 to undertake a realistic reading and appraisal of contextual geopolitical dynamics both at the global level and ore specifically in the Inddo PacificRegion.

China in 2021 is in a 'Collision Trajectory' with the United States which is the predominant Global Power and to which Indo Pacific security and stability counts most. From accumulated indicators it seems that China can be expected to be reckless in challenging United States both regionally and globally.

The Western Pacific contains multiple 'explosive flash-points' which have the incendiary potential of igniting an US-China armed conflict. Such a conflict would have wider ramifications.

In the above scenario where armed conflict breaks out at ASEAN's doorsteps can ASEAN Nations afford to stand as mute witnesses paralysed into inaction because of past dithering on the China Threat.

Concluding, it can be analytically asserted that ASEAN's geopolitical and strategic choices in 2021 are not all that  complex and vexing. In terms of contextual geopolitical dynamics, ASEAN cannot afford to be on the wrong side of history. 

China is certainly not on the right side of history in terms of Indo Pacific security and stability.