INDO PACIFIC SECURITY PERSPECTIVES : UNITED STATES ABANDONS "WESTERN OUTPOST" OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN MID-AUGUST 2021

Friday, August 20, 2021

UNITED STATES ABANDONS "WESTERN OUTPOST" OF INDO PACIFIC SECURITY IN MID-AUGUST 2021

The United States as the prime mover of Indo Pacific Security and The QUAD abandoned Afghanistan on August 15 2020 for the second time in over two decades and thereby abandoning the "Western Oupost" of Indo Pacific Security, so critical as a 'Strategic Pressure Point' against China's restive Western Regions.

The significance of Afghanistan for Indo Pacific Security was analysed by me in my Blogpost of June28 2020 titled "Afghanistan as Indo Pacific Security "Wetsern Outpost".

In my writings elsewhere, I have termed American abandonment of Afghanistan on August 15 2020 as United States "Munich Moment"--- capitualting to geopolitical pressures of the China-Pakistan-Russia Trilateral ---all three having strong convergences to generate a US-Exit from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan with US Military Forces embedded in this vital geostrategic Nation offered significant geopolitical and strategic advatages both to United States national security and also to Indo Pacific Security.

In relation to the China Threat which has been the catalyst for coalescing of Major Powers to evolve groupings like The QUAD , Afghanistan provided a strong and potent "Strategic Prssure Point" against China's restive and vulnerable Western Regions.

Afghanistan in safe military protection of the United States offered a 'Firm Base' for the United States to influence events in Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia.

The United States by abandoning Afghanistan to the China-Pakistan-Russia Trilateral has thereby lost strong leverages against China mainly and so also Russia. The UnitedStates also thereby loses leverages against Pakistan in relation to Pakistan once again facilitating creation of the Islamic Hub of Global Terrorism in Afghan Taliban rule Afghanistan.

At this moment while Aghanistan stands taken over by the Afgha Taliban by US-default for the second time, reports and visuals emanating from Afghanistan portend that Afghanistan is headed for another Civil War.

Civil War once again breaking out in Afghanistan may in its wake prompt the United States for no better alternative than for a third US Military Intervention.

Was it geopolitically and strategically wise therefore for "US Military Abandonment of Afghanistan 2.0" ?

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Dr Subhash Kapila—Academic & Professional Profile

Dr Subhash Kapila is a Graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College.UK.: has a Masters in Defence Science from Madras University with his thesis on ‘India’s Foreign Policy in Far East Asia’ and a Doctorate from Allahabad University with his thesis in 1994 on ‘Asia Pacific Security-2000 AD Perspectives’.

Dr Subhash Kapila combines a rich and varied professional experience of Indian Army (Brigadier) in criteria appointments on Command, Staff and Instructional. Indian Army service encompassed long tenures on India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

Dr Subhash Kaila’s professional exposures also include diplomatic assignments in United States, Japan, South Korea and also official tenures in UK and Bhutan. These years of diplomatic and official assignments afforded deep insights on Asia Pacific security challenges and China-watching from different perches.

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored two books--- ‘China-India Military Confrontation:21^st Century Perspectives’ (2015) and an earlier one on India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought-A Comparative Analysis’ (2004)

Dr Subhash Kapila has authored over nearly 2000 Papers on Geopolitical, Foreign Policy and Strategic topics of Major Powers like USA, China, Japan and regional issues of South Asia, South East Asia and the Middle East.

Dr Subhash Kapila has presented Papers at international forums in Russia, Japan, Turkey and Vietnam and National and University Seminars in India.

Invited for TV/Radio discussions by CNN, BBC, Pakistan Geo TV and multiple Indian Channels.

INDO PACIFIC REGION—GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE

“Indo Pacific Region encompassing the vast geographical expanse from West Coast of the United States to the Eastern Littoral of Africa on the Indian Ocean and Australia in South Pacific has emerged in recent years as a fulcrum of global security and stability.

Competing security narratives led by the United States and a reactive hardly credible narrative by China challenges foreign policy and security policies directions of Major Powers in the Indo Pacific comprising United States. India, Japan and Australia.

Needless to highlight as so many academic treatises have already done so that Indo Pacific Security Template as a strategic construct and narrative emerged so as a narrative in the last decade generated by fears of China’s not so benign intentions manifested from Himalayan Heights of China Occupied Tibet borders with India to the Western Pacific seas, and more pointedly to the South China Sea where China has indulged in military aggression ad coercive brinkmanship to establish “Full Spectrum Dominance” endangering Indo Pacific Security as a whole.”------------Dr Subhash Kaila’s earlier writings.

“The Indo Pacific has assumed tectonic significance for a wide range of nations affirming their agency in an uncertain world. Far from being an obscure account of of words and maps, the narratives of Indo Pacific nations hands a great dilemma of the 21^st Century: how can other countries respond to a strong and coercive China without resorting to capitulation or conflict.” –Professor Rory Metcalf, Australian National University.

“In this century, the Asia Pacific and the Indian Ocean Rim which some refer as the Indo Pacific will become the world’s centre of gravity.”---Australian Defence Minister