The China -Pakistan Axis is seemingly involved in a proposal, reflective of Samuel Huntington's ;Clash of Civilisations' thesis of a likely Sino- Islamic Strategic Coalition to counter the dominance of the Western Civilsation in global affairs.
The China-Pakistan Axis proposed"QUINTET' Strategic Coalition is to counterbalance the US-led "QUAD" Strategic Initiative comprising United States, Japan, Australia and India taking concrete shape to manage the rising China Threat in the Indo Pacific Region.
The China-led QUINTET in its ultimate form envisages a coalition of China, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Turkey to counter-balace the QUAD. This ultimate coalition was initially to be formed by a Counter-Quad of China, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Turkey for reasons uknown is being considered as a final addittion to the Counter-Quad to form the QUINTET.
The QUINTET proposal was first aired by Pakistan's note economist Shahid Javid Burki in his Opinion Column in Pakistan's English newspaper The Express Tribune on July 12 2021 titled 'Afghanistan :a possible component of counter-quad or a quintet". Shahid Javid Burki has been eralier Pakistan's Finance Minister and also has had a stint as Vice Preident of the World Bank in Washington.
Given Burki's standing, and with his present writing on geopolitical perspectives overtaking his geoeconomic writings forte', leads one to believe that the QUINTET kite-flying, if it is indeed kite-flying, could have only emerged with some prodding by the Pakistani Establishment and also some interaction with China.
Burki's last paragraph is notable. He asserts that "The US Quad was to constrain China and bind China; the China-led Quad could relaese Chinese energies to the world to the West. Including Turkey in the configuration would result in the proposed counter-quadto become a QUINTET".
Analytically, a Chinese riposte to the QUAD was expected and so also its broad contours, as spelt out above. However, the crucial determinant of the longevity of the initial Counter Quad and its later evolution as QUINTET is debatable.
Let us first look at the contemporary impulses which have nudged China and Pakistan in the direction of forming the Counter Quad and its later end-version of the QUINTET.
Geopolitically, in 2021, China and Pakistan stand virtually isolated diplomatically. China with its propensity for unprovoked aggression from Indian Hi,alayas to South China Sea is being labelled as "Disruptive State" undermining Indo Pacific security.
Pakistan is being viewed and type-casted as a Chinese satellite stae on lines of North Korea bereft of long-standingUS support. Pakistan now has China as its policy helmsman.
Pakistan and China too with the xeit of US Forces from Afghanistan fear addittional strategic challenges to the China-Pakistan CPEC which is the flgship project of Cnina in Pakistan besides CPEC being the most vital component of China's grandiose global Belt & Road Blueprint.
At first glance the China-led Counter Quad or its end-version of the QUINTET composition suggets that in terms of Naval Balance against the US-led QUAD the Chinese-led Counter Quad or QUINTET will be inadeqaute in countering QUAD's naval operations potency both in Pacific Ocean and in Indian Ocean.
In terms of geographical landspread the QUINTET looks impressive with potential of great geopolitical counterweight against yhe United States and the QUAD,.
But the comparison of the strategic effectiveness of a China-led QUINTET ends when its longevity is measured on thescale of its enduringcaolition-cohesion envisgaed by China-Pakistan Axis?
China and Pakistan are the only predictable entities in the proposed QUINTET in that both these nations are inextricably bound together by their adversarial pstures against a rising India.
Iran may have signed a 25 year Comprehensive Strategic Parnership with China but this has to be viewed as more of a tactical ploy to gain leverages in its dealing with United States. The longevuty of China-Iran Strategic Partnership is open to question.
Afghaistan is in turmoil and Pakistan Army can be expected to prolong this turmoil until it gets full control of Afghanistan's decision-making setup. Even in that eventuality, Afghanistan is likely to be in turmoil challenging Pakistan's overlordship.
Turkey despite its seemingly strong policy stances against the United States has till date showed no inclination to "Renounce" its membership of US-led NATO Military Alliance.
What then emerges to the fore is that neither in terms of its geopolitical configurations nor its longevity a China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET can seriously imbalance the US-led QUAD. The QUAD Security Initaitive is likely to draw-in more Nations in the Coalition.
Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that sheer commonality of present Islamic Nations adversarial stances against the United States cannot provide the glue for an effective China-led Counter Quad or QUINTET to emerge as an effective strategic counterweight to the QUAD.
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