Monday, June 1, 2020

SOUTH KOREA PERSPECTIVES ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY NEED RESEST

South Korea in 2020 would be ill-advised to let its historical animosity of Japan's colonial rule till 1945 distort its Indo Pacific security perspectives when geopolitical realities indicate the rise of a military threatening China intent on disrupting regional peace and security.

South Korea as in 1945 or in 1950 or thereafter had to survive in a hostile security environment with three Communist neighbours---China North Korea and Russia.

South Korea's security environment in 2020 has become more turbulent and conflictual largely due to China and North Korea's disruptive policies. Can South Korea be oblivious to the negative effects of these two Communist Nations on South Korean security?

South Korea could withstand Chinese and North Korean aggression propensities because of its security links with the United States and Japan hosting an even larger US Forces Forward Military Presence than that of S0uth Korea.

South Korea's phenomenal economic miracle could take place because of massive Japanese infusion of FDI and technologies. This was a reality recognised by South Korea's first military ruler President Park who prevailed over his countrymen to put animosities aside and let Japanese FDI flow-in.

Has China contributed in any meaningful way to South Korea's security? Has China ever assisted South Korea in its economic miracle?

Has China behaved like a responsible Major Power in the region to restrain its protégé and nuclear proxy North Korea to desist from its provocative stances towards South Korea and its security?

Has China contributed in any way to the materialisation of South Korea's national dream of Korean Reunification?

All the answers to the above questions are negative and the logical next question is as to what draws South Korea to a political outreach to China bypassing and being insensitive to United States and Japan's interests?

While South Korea has a Mutual Security Treaty with the United States and hosts nearly 40,000 US Troops as Forward Military Presence on the Korean Peninsula, some South Korean Presidents in recent years perceptionally steered closer to China giving China a handle to sow divisions and mistrust between South Korea and the United States and with Japan.

Since both Japan and South Korea are tied to United States with respective bilateral Mutual Security Treaties, the natural course of events should have been the evolution of a "United States-Japan-South Korea Strategic Triangle' as an existential counterweight to China's bid to destabilise the Western Pacific to its strategic advantage.

The above evolution could not emerge in my opinion due to South Korea's misgivings about Japan.

Having been posted in Japan on a military diplomatic assignment for nearly four years in the 1980s with concurrent accreditation to South Korea I am deeply convinced that the strategic moment has arrived in 2020 for forging the "United States-Japan-South Korea Strategic Triangle".

South Korea owes a deep debt of honour to the United States which while leading UN Forces retrieved South Korea from Communist China clutches when China and North Korea military forces had reached the beaches of Pusan at the Southern-most tip of South Korea.

General Douglas MacArthur in a legendary military offensive drove back Communist China's massed armies all the way to Yalu River on the borders of China. That US President Truman faltered in not allowing General MacArthur to cross into China, retrospectively, can be stated as leading to the rise of a threatening China even much more in the second decade of the 21st Century.

South Korea needs to recognise that if Communist China could launch a military offensive against United States in South Korea in 1950, with US as the victor of Second World War and then the only nuclear weapons Power in the world, what China can do in 21st Century with modernised and expanded Armed Forces with nuclear stockpiles and ICBMs at their disposal.

South Korea's security historically and geostrategically is linked indivisibly with United States and Japan and certainly not linked with Communist China which has created North Korea as China's nuclear proxy at South Korean capital Seoul's doorstep.

South Korea should actively ponder on reset of its perspectives on Indo Pacific security when in 2020 no space exists for South Korea to adopt independent policy thrusts towards China which are not synchronised with the United States and Japan's stances towards China.

Moreso, now with China heading towards an inevitable looming armed conflict with the United States.







No comments: