Saturday, June 6, 2020

SOUTH CHINA SEA-GLOBAL OPTIONS TO FORCE CHINA TO VACATE ILLRGAL OCCUPATION

China has been in illegal military occupation of islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines for virtually two decades. In recent weeks its aggressive propensities to enlarge its hold over the South China Sea has now touched Indonesia and Malaysia.

China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea were dismissed in 2016 by the International Hague Tribunal which ruled China's sovereignty claims over the entire South China Sea based on dubious Pre-BC maps as null and void and without legal basis.

China thereafter has not only defied The Hague Tribunals ruling but redoubled its aggressive enlargement of control over South China Sea by construction of artificial islands which are heavily fortified with missiles, radars, naval jetties and airstrips capable of operating Fighter Planes of the Chinese Air Force.

Contextually, arising from the above, the following logical deductions emerge:
  • China has no intention to vacate its illegal military occupation of South China Sea maritime expanse. Its intentions are not benign. It seeks further expansion of its hold over the South China Sea.
  • Chia will not honour any international awards ruling against its illegal military occupation nor open to any Conflict-Resolution processes initiated globally or regionally.
  • China's long term intention is to transform the South China Sea into an 'Inland Sea of China' denying global access to maritime global commons and also the airspace above it.
  • China considers the South China Sea as its "Core Interest" and will not shirk from armed conflict to maintain its illegal hold and dominance over the South China Sea expanse.
Since China in pursuance of its expansionist impulses can hardly be expected to retreat or resile from its illegal occupation and sovereignty claims over the South China Sea, the Major Powers have to prevail over the global community, as a first step to adopt measures 'short of war' to make China's continued hold over the South China Sea "untenable".

Short of war, and war should be the last step, Major Powers  and global community as a united entity should devise multiple options against  Chinese aggression to comprehensively incorporate  political, economic, and China-containment Naval options without further delay. 

Politically, China needs to be "isolated" in all global and regional forums till such time China visibly and by demonstrated actions projects its earnestness to 'adhere to a rule-based international order respecting international laws and conventions'.

Politically, it is high time the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council strongly send a message to China that it cannot continue as a Permanent Member of UNSC when it wantonly indulges in endangering regional and global peace and stability.

Economically, and this is where China will be hurt most and damaged, is to impose economics sanctions against China. China's supply chains from all over the world which sustain China's economy and tangentially its military expansion need to be disrupted.

Economically, the United States has already initiated a US-China Trade War which needs further intensification and a follow-on spiral by other Major Nations and ASEAN in particular as the region most grieved by Chinese aggression in South China Sea.

Economically, countries like the United States, Japan, South Korea and Western Europe which have made significantly high FDIs in China should re-locate their companies and industries  from China to South East Asia and India.

In the military field, since China's aggression in South China Sea is predominantly naval and maritime based, the first priority is for Joint Naval Patrols of the type of US Navy FONOPs in South China Sea by Navies of all Major Powers and ASEAN Navies.

In the military field, since the next provocative step by China would be to declare a China-ADIZ over the South China Sea, a declaration of intent by Major Powers that in that eventuality they would be forced to military intervention to lift the China-ADIZ needs urgent declaration.

China is on a Hitlerian path that Hitler adopted in the run-up to Second World War with Nazi military formations on a wild aggressive rampage al over Central Europe without checkmating by the leading Powers of the day

 Do the Major Powers of the 21st Century wish to repeat 20th Century history of  permissiveness against a 'Revisionist Power' and not checkmating China in a Hitlerian-mould  on a wild rampage of aggression from the Western Pacific to icy-heights of India's borders with China Occupied Tibet?

South China Sea is only a symptomatic eruption of the larger disease that afflicts 21st Century China today----domination of the Indo Pacific Region as part of its expansive 'Great China Dream'.
 

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