Wednesday, June 3, 2020

THE QUADRILATERAL "QUAD" -AN EXISTENTIAL STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

The Quadrilateral  more commonly designated as the 'QUAD" is a coalescing of four Major Nations of the Indo Pacific comprising the United States, India, Japan and Australia which first conceptually emerged in the first decade of the 21st Century in face of growing China's propensity for aggression and brinkmanship in Asia Pacific. 

The  QUAD slid out of strategic consciousness of the four Major Nations thereafter due to a combination of factors of US strategic distractions in Middle East and Afghanistan and more significantly because the 'China Threat' had still not becoming unmanageable, besides India's hedging strategies not to ruffle China.

The second decade of the21st Century especially after 2012 alarmed Major Powers of the Indo Pacific when China more noticeably switched over to 'Hard Power' strategies in pursuance of Chinese President's 'Great China Dream.' and the enunciation of China's Maritime Strategy 2015 which laid bare China's ambitions of projecting the  new-found  Chinese Navy power "in distant seas".

The maritime ambitions of China with the exponential expansion of Chinese Navy were no longer confined to domination of the South China Sea but to establish a significant naval presence in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, positioning China as the contending potential Superpower against the United States in a China-crafted new bipolar world order. 

China's underlying intentions on the above centred on challenging the United States dominance in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean challenging the power status quo as the 'Revisionist Power' against the United States but also to subdue India and Japan as Asia's 'Emerged Powers' in contention with China both because of territorial disputes and geopolitical factors centring on Asian leadership.

China's other intention was to challenge the US-Japan military alliance and also nip in the bid the substantially evolving US-India Strategic Partnership.

Japan and India tied to the United States strategically grossly altered the balance of power against China in the Indo Pacific. Australia in the South Pacific with strong strategic links to the United States closed China's growing intrusive presence in the South Pacific island nations.

China attempted to turn the Western naval flank of the United States by seizing military dominance of the South China Sea, potential strangulation of Japan's sea-lanes of survival and establishing an intrusive Chinese Navy presence in the Indian Ocean to coerce India away from the US-India Strategic Partnership.

China's above militarily destabilising potential moves rang alarm bells in Washington belatedly to the China Threat in Indo Pacific and so also in New Delhi, Tokyo and Canberra.

Thus in middle of the present decade the QUAD was more purposefully resurrected  by the four Major Powers of the QUAD with serious discussions to make it more integrated and substantial.

Towards the  above end one lately has witnessed Joint Naval Exercises held bilaterally and multilaterally besides bilateral Joint Army and Air Force Exercises.

There is a wide ranging consensus in Asian Capitals, and moreso in South East Asia that China is not amenable to political  dialogues and adjustments on conflictual issues, a lesson slowly dawning on ASEAN countries most critically affected by Chinese aggression in South China Sea.

The alternative option to manage the growing China Threat is to put into create strong bilateral and multilateral groupings like the QUAD in the Indo Pacific whose potential China cannot ignore.

In 2020, peering into the future, contextually, in relation to the growing and menacing China Threat which could provoke ignition of existing flashpoints in the Indo Pacific, all of China's making, strong imperatives exist to transform the QUAD  into a strong, credible and potent existential strategic counterweight to deter China's propensity and impulses to dominate the Indo Pacific.


 

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