PAKISTAN'S CLIFFHANGER FRAGILITY IMPACTS INDO PACIFIC SECURITY CHIEFLY BECAUSE OF UNITED STATES LINGERING PAKISTAN-CENTRIC OBSESSION

Pakistan's 'Cliffhanger Fragility' precariously hanging on the edge of complete meltdown impacts Indo Pacific security not only by virtue of its location on Western Flanks of Indo Pacific Security Template and India (QUAD'S Pivotal Partner), but moreso because of United States' lingering Pakistan-centric strategic obsession.

Pakistan's dubious strategic company of PRIC--Pakistan-Russia-Iran-China Quartet and the dangers posed by this Quartet were highlighted in my post of February 2023.

PRIC Nations are markedly adversarial to United States and the danger posed by them is that all of them possess Nuclear Weapons Arsenals. Contrastingly, within QUAD, only United States and India possess nuclear weapons.

The United States still mistakenly. believes that Pakistan can be retrieved to within the American strategic orbit. A 'Strategic Reality Check' by US policy planners would indicate that it is delusionary to think so.

 Pointed out in my earlier analyses was the fact that with China's 'Colonial Grip' over Pakistan, no bandwidth exists for Pakistan to escape China's vice-like grip, even if Pakistan wants to wriggle out of it.

China, however, is pragmatic, in that if Pakistan tumbles down the cliff into a 'complete meltdown' , China analytically will not save Pakistan from a 'Meltdown Disaster'.

The United States despite machinations of President Nixon and his Secretary of State Kissinger could not prevent Pakistan's "fragmentation" in 1971 when United States was all-powerful, and Pakistan was a trusted US ally. 

In 2023, the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape in Southwest Asia is disconcerting for the United States as follow-up events in wake of ongoing Israel-Hamas War in Gaza suggest.

Pakistan and its fellow-PRIC nations perceptively view United States as a 'Declining Power' under adversarial siege by China's military and economic power. 

PRIC nations are against Israel and are seconding Iran's proxy war in the Middle East through its armed militias, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Pakistan in 2023 as China's 'Frontline State' and a strategic vassal of China perceives that China's countervailing power combined with Iran and Russia makes it less vulnerable to any United States coercive policies.

Pakistan's value to PRIC is that today it is the only Islamic Nation with Nuclear Weapons and that Pakistan's "disruptive quotient" to US security interest is high.

In 2023, with Pakistan decidedly out of US Strategic Orbit, with its 'State Meltdown' an overhanging possibility, what chances does United States has in preventing a "Second Fragmentation" of Pakistan?

Should the United States still persist in delusionary policies of retrieving Pakistan from its terminal decline, the United States could face the irreparable loss from its strategic fold of its most "Pivotal Partner" India in IndoPacific Security Template.

Chia and Pakistan figure as 'Enemy States' in Indian threat perceptions and overwhelmingly in eyes of Indian public opinion. 

In today's age of 'Perceptional Wars' can United States afford risking Indian public opinion with policies suggestive of   "Dancing with the Wolves" with 'softening-up' on the "China Threat" and bolstering up India's most inveterate enemy---Pakistan?

INDIA-ANUSTRALIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NOVEMBER 2023 AT NEW DELHI ADDS SALIENCE TO COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

 The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Australia acquires enhanced salience in November 2023 when analyzed contextually against the failed November outcomes of US-China APEC Sideline Summit between Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping and visit of Australian PM Albanese to China.

Chinese President refused to oblige both United States and Australia on their "expected deliverables" in terms of Indo Pacific Security.

In the last five years strategic, military and economic cooperation between India and Australia has intensified considerably impelled by the increasing belligerence of China in disrupting Indo Pacific security.

China's ever-increasing belligerence in Indo Pacific seriously impacts the legitimate security interests of both India and Australia in the region.

Geopolitically, India and Australia besides their comprehensive bilateral security linkages are intertwined in the multilateral QUAD Security Initiative and jointly cooperating with United States and Japan in capacity-building of Southeast Asia nations like the Philippines to withstand the predatory China Threat.

QUAD Nations are committed to maintain a "Free and Open Indo Pacific both in maritime domains and Overflights" and maintaining stability in the Indo Pacific region.

Geoeconomically, India and Australia to cement their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership have signed a Free Trade Agreement which will take much of the slack of China restricting Australian imports. This FTA gives duty-free access to each other's markets and is a landmark agreement. 

Geo strategically, the enhanced military exchanges between India and Australia need to be viewed in the context of the respective geostrategic weight in Indo Pacific security.

India dominates the India Ocean and with legitimate security interests in Western Pacific. Australia dominates the Southern Pacific and the Eastern Segment of the Indian Ocean. Like India, Australia has legitimate security interests in Western Pacific and Southeast Asia.

Needless to add that the palpable China Threat to India and Australia in their contiguous IndoPacific regions provides strategic convergences for both these Major Indo Pacific nations to forge a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to position an 'Existential Counterweight' to the China Threat, even if not so articulated officially.

The Inda-Australia 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue held in November 2023 ended on optimistic notes indicated by the official statements of both the Indian Ministers and the Australian Ministers,

India was represented by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar, Australia was represented by Deputy PM an Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

India and Australia have already signed a Logistics Memorandum of Understanding granting access to each other's logistics facilities to their Navies and Air Forces. Joint military exercises have increased.

A defence Science & Technology Agreement also exists which promotes cooperation in defence technologies with each other.

Notably a Civil Nuclear Agreement permits Australian mining companies to export Uranium to India.

Analytically, it can be assumed that when such proximate Strategic Partnerships are forged and mature, then close cooperation between Intelligence Agencies and intelligence-sharing is a natural outcome. This would be truer in case of intelligence on China.

Superimposed over these are a host of Ministerial Dialogues, consultative mechanisms and increasing people to people contacts. It is reported that the Indian expatriate population in Australia is about a million now.

Contextually therefore, terms of future perspectives, it can be safely asserted that the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between India and Australia is destined to intensify and deepen with evolving shared perspectives on Indo Pacific security and as Australian and American political and economic outreaches to China are rebuffed. 

Independent of the 'China Factor' there is much that unites India and Australia in terms of shared military history, shared values and democratic institutions and their respective geostrategic and geoeconomic weight.

APEC 2023 SIDELINE SUMMIT OF AMERICAN & CHINESE PRESIDENTS YIELDS N GAME-CAHNGERS ON CONFLICTUAL ISUES

Expectedly, the APEX 2023 Sideline Summit at San Francisco on November 15, between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a tepid Apex Meet, despite nearly a year-long preparatory effort by US Cabinet -level officials.

Noticeably, Chinese President was vocal on Plaet Earth being big enough for both United States and China as Global Powers to coexist and that China was ready to partner with United States.

The above allusion seems to echo what then US President Obama made of a US-China 'Global Dyad', which was globally rejected.

That no major breakthroughs emerged at the Summit on major conflictual issues, reflects the extreme 'Strategic Distrust' that continues to pervade US-China relations.

If the measure of political successes of such Sideline Summits at U-China apex level can only be measured by 'small niblings' then restoration of US-China military ties, Drugs Control cooperation, dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and increase in aviation flights were the only achievement.

Taiwan continues to divide United States and China more intensely as China has intensified military and political coercion. China did not hold out any guarantees that United States desired to lower the brinkmanship.

Some had expected that on South China Sea, some Maritime Control format may emerge. It has not been so.

On the major global crisis in November2023, the Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States asked China to prevail over Iran to restrain both Hamas and Hezbollah, both Iran's proxy armed militias.

Similarly, North Korea issue which is major concern for US Allies, Japan and South Korea, no observations were made by the Chinese President at the Summit.

Surprisingly, no reports have emanated whether Russian Invasion of Ukraine, now nearly two years old, was discussed by the two Presidents. Though, the United States has been broaching with China that it was China that is continuing the lifelines for Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

The United Staes has not obliged China with any removal of high-technology restrictions which Chinese President did mention during the Summit.

Therefore, the only major takeaway from this Summit can be analyzed as 'Risk Reduction' which would emanate from direct military-to-military contacts and at apex level in terms of crisis.

Concluding, even 'Risk Reduction' having been achieved is debatable, as China by available indicators is in no mood to oblige President Biden in a presidential election year. 

Similarly, US President Biden, with an intensifying 'Hard Line' sentiment against China prevailing in United States across the entire political spectrum, could only indulge in what can best be termed as 'China Management'. No China demanded concessions conceded.

   

SIDELINES SUMMIT BETWEEN US PRESIDENT BIDEN & CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING AT APEC 2023 MEET: PROSPECTS

The APEC Meet underway in San Francisco is being avidly watched as US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to have a Summit Meet on November 15, on the sidelines of this otherwise Asia Pacific economic grouping which has no security component.

In terms of prospects, no major breakthroughs can be expected in the frosty US-China relations now spanning two different US Presidents.

At best, both the American and Chinese Presidents, would strive to restore some normalcy in the tense and conflictual confrontation that exists in the Indo Pacific between a conflictual propensity-prone China and a US-led security architecture checkmating China.

US-China economic relations also are strained by multiple economic sanctions and technology restrictions imposed by United States in response to many Chinese security provocations in Asia Pacific.

Prospective analysis in terms of which of the two Nations---United States or China comes with more strength-full leverages to the Sidelines Summit, one would assert that it is the United States.

The United States displayed that despite its strategic distractions in Ukraine and Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, the United States has the will and strength to play the dominant role in Indo Pacific.

China globally stands in the wrong corner over Ukraine by siding with Russia and so also in the Gaza War by siding with Hamas because of China's security relationship with Iran.

The US economy under President Biden has been resilient whereas the Chinese economy under President Xi Jinping has entered a sluggish curve.

Prospectively therefore, one can expect United States and China to agree to cosmetic changes to restore security and military-to-military communication link;, the United States holding stronger cards will not come out with any game-changer strategic or economic concessions to indulge China.

UNITED STATES-INDIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NEW DELHI NOVEMBER 2023 : CAN INDIA MEASURE UP TO AMERICAM EXPECTATIONS?

The 5th US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue due to start on November 10, 2023, acquires significant geopolitical contours when analyzed in context of two ongoing major armed conflicts going on in Ukraine and Gaza in which the United States is involved in a major way.

The United States would expect from India as its "Key Strategic Partner" to adopt more "Key, Notable & Substantive" geopolitical and security postures contributive to US national security interests in the Middle East conflict contingencies. 

Can India with its preferred fixations on multipolarity as a foreign policy precept measure up to United States expectations?

Initially, it needs to be highlighted that the very basis of evolution of the now so-titled and so -evolved over two decades   US-India Global Comprehensive Stategic Partnership is shared strategic convergences on major global issues threatening global and regional security.

Major ongoing armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza War threaten both regional and global security and peace. This strategic reality is not open to differing interpretations.  

Unlike in Ukraine Invasion by Russia, the United States has reacted with major military deployments of US Forces as pre-emptive measures by Iran to escalate and enlarge the war on Israel. The United States is intensely committed to security of Israel.

Iran has merged as a major actor against the United States not only with its nuclear weapons arsenal but also weaponizing Islamist Armed Militias like Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah operating in Southern Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.

These Iran -controlled Armed Militias are heavily armed and in possession of Rockets arsenals. Hamas and Hezbollah plague Israel security with a Two Front Threat. They also undermine US security interests in Middle East in favor of Iran.

The lurking danger in November 2023 is that Iran may be sucked into escalating this War against Israel and United States, as prospects increase of Hamas being liquidated by Israel.

In the above eventuality, India faces serious policy predicaments which can best be summed-up in the following questions: (1) Can India strategically afford to adopt a neutral stand in an escalated war in which United States could be sucked-in? (2) Is India ready to dispense with its fairly good relationship with Iran drawn into a War with United States and Israel? (3) Would India be in a position to withstand the geopolitical and economic costs of adopting a neutral stance in the event of a Middle East War?

India has unlike the Ukraine Invasion, surprisingly but realistically, taken a clear stand by PM Modi asserting that "India stands with Israel". India has not adopted an ambiguous stand when it came to Israel when contrasted with that of Ukraine.

Therefore, if India has asserted that it stands with Israe and the United State is committed to Isreal's security and existence at all costs, it is logical that India's policy adoptions in event of war in Middle East would be congruent with that of the United States "Short of committing troops on the ground".

The United States on the eve of the Meet has officially declared that it is for India to make its decisions.

Hopefully, India would be able to rise up to United States expectations by fulfilling provisions of all the US-India Defence Arrangements signed like BECA, COMCASA and more notably LEMOA.