INDO PACIFIC SECURITY AND US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020

The United States will soon be engulfed in US Presidential Elections and campaign politics and it needs to be emphasised that the US political contenders adopt a bipartisan approach to the challenge of maintaining security and stability in the Indo Pacific Region.

Peace and stability in the Indo Pacific stands threatened by China on all its peripheries. China is also engaged in an unremitting US-China Trade War which prompts China to generate added turbulence in the region,

China can be expected to target US audiences by digital means to ensure that incumbent US President Trump is not elected for a second term as US President.

China's targeting of President Trump emerges from a visceral hatred of President Trump for his hard-line policies against China extending from Trade Wars to intensifying US Navy FONOPS in South China Sea and co-opting India as a major partners of United States in Indo Pacific security and the QUAD which existentially will apply brakes to China's unbridled aggression in South China Sea.

The main challenge to disturb or disrupt Indo Pacific security contextually would therefore emanate from China which could possibly attempt to exploit any political divisiveness that at times erupts in heated electioneering campaigns. 

China perceptively has already commenced the process by creating heated turbulence in the South China Sea and the Northern Borders of India with China Occupied Tibet.

In both of the above strategic locations, the United States in 2020 has legitimate security stakes by virtue of its commitments to East Asian security or the security of the Western Pacific wherein the United States is a 'Resident Power' by virtue of its security treaties.

India matters high in 2020 United States geopolitical calculus and relevant to United States strategic template for Indo Pacific Security. This is anathema for China which views this strategic development as upsetting the balance of power against China.

Both Republican Party and Democratic Party Presidents in the past have stood committed to the larger issue of South China Sea security as security of the "Global Commons' and with varying nuances challenged China's aggressive misadventures in this critical maritime expanse.

Similarly, India has received bipartisan support of Republican and Democratic Party Presidents in terms of building up India as a Major Global Player and pivotal partner of United States in contributing towards Indo Pacific Security.

Contextually, therefore, in the coming US Presidential Elections campaigns South China Sea security and India's pivotal significance as the Free World's existential counterweight against China need to be politically be respected by both US political parties.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that China will attempt an intrusive digital influencing strategy in coming US Presidential Elections. China will make an all-out effort to sway election results away from President Trump's bid for a second term.

China in mid-2020 has emerged as a potent threat to United States security and the security of its Allies and Strategic Partners.  The China Threat to United States is even more than the Former Soviet Union was ever was.

The United States at all levels has to be therefore be vigilant to China's interference in US domestic policies in the run-up to Presidential Elections 2020.

UNITED STATES CHINA POLICY THRUST-"CHINA CONTAINMENT" NOT "CONGAGEMENT

The United States has faltered grievously in its China-policy thrusts for the last two decades by dithering on facing China squarely when all indicators portended that China was in a calibrated strategy under-mining United States vital national security interests in the Indo Pacific Region.

The United States ignoring strategic imperatives for 'China-Containment' strategies shied away in arresting China's growing military adventurism on all its peripheries in the Indo Pacific.

The United States over-weighed by its 'China Hedging Strategies' and 'Risk Aversion Strategies' gave a flawed veneer to its faltering thrust on China by terming that the United States will adopt a policy thrust of "Congagement" with US strategists espousing the 'mantra' of 'Trust but Verify' and that the United States would make a cocktail of its China-policy thrust by blending part 'Containment' and part 'Engagement'.

The United States China-policy therefore can be asserted to be one of fudging the China Threat and its potent potential to challenge US predominance in the Indo Pacific.

Contextually, therefore in 2020, what stands proven is that United States China-policy of the last two decades with its misperceived notions that China would change with time into a benign power has miserably failed.

China has not only refused to change its  legacy aggressive stripes but gone headlong into a wild military aggression pattern all over the Indo Pacific combined with political, economic and military coercion against virtually all its neighbours excepting Pakistan. 

In the above process, he United States till lately suffered a serious dent in US image in Asian countries raising doubts that the United States was the guarantor and Nett provider of Indo Pacific security against China bent on claiming for itself "Strategic Frontiers" as opposed to well defined historical "Geographical Frontiers".

In 2020, when China now feels militarily empowered to challenge United States traditional predominance and hold on Indo Pacific Security, can the United States afford to still pursue its misperceived "Congagement" China-policy thrust? 

Surely, the United States cannot afford to pursue his China-policy thrust any longer as what would then be at stake is the United States continued embedment in Indo Pacific with all its attendant national security implications of a crumbled "Outer Perimeter of Defence" of US Homeland.

Post China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic China today stands politically isolated with even Asian fence-sitters no longer enamoured by China.

This is an opportune moment for the United States in the Indo Pacific to adopt an active 'China Containment" policy thrust and galvanise Indo Pacific nations behind its leadership to send an unequivocal signal to China that Indo Pacific Nations with the United States in the lead will henceforth "PUSHBACK" China's military adventurism and all political, economic and military coercion.






 

SOUTH CHINA SEA-GLOBAL OPTIONS TO FORCE CHINA TO VACATE ILLRGAL OCCUPATION

China has been in illegal military occupation of islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines for virtually two decades. In recent weeks its aggressive propensities to enlarge its hold over the South China Sea has now touched Indonesia and Malaysia.

China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea were dismissed in 2016 by the International Hague Tribunal which ruled China's sovereignty claims over the entire South China Sea based on dubious Pre-BC maps as null and void and without legal basis.

China thereafter has not only defied The Hague Tribunals ruling but redoubled its aggressive enlargement of control over South China Sea by construction of artificial islands which are heavily fortified with missiles, radars, naval jetties and airstrips capable of operating Fighter Planes of the Chinese Air Force.

Contextually, arising from the above, the following logical deductions emerge:

• China has no intention to vacate its illegal military occupation of South China Sea maritime expanse. Its intentions are not benign. It seeks further expansion of its hold over the South China Sea.
• Chia will not honour any international awards ruling against its illegal military occupation nor open to any Conflict-Resolution processes initiated globally or regionally.
• China's long term intention is to transform the South China Sea into an 'Inland Sea of China' denying global access to maritime global commons and also the airspace above it.
• China considers the South China Sea as its "Core Interest" and will not shirk from armed conflict to maintain its illegal hold and dominance over the South China Sea expanse.

Since China in pursuance of its expansionist impulses can hardly be expected to retreat or resile from its illegal occupation and sovereignty claims over the South China Sea, the Major Powers have to prevail over the global community, as a first step to adopt measures 'short of war' to make China's continued hold over the South China Sea "untenable".

Short of war, and war should be the last step, Major Powers  and global community as a united entity should devise multiple options against  Chinese aggression to comprehensively incorporate  political, economic, and China-containment Naval options without further delay. 

Politically, China needs to be "isolated" in all global and regional forums till such time China visibly and by demonstrated actions projects its earnestness to 'adhere to a rule-based international order respecting international laws and conventions'.

Politically, it is high time the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council strongly send a message to China that it cannot continue as a Permanent Member of UNSC when it wantonly indulges in endangering regional and global peace and stability.

Economically, and this is where China will be hurt most and damaged, is to impose economics sanctions against China. China's supply chains from all over the world which sustain China's economy and tangentially its military expansion need to be disrupted.

Economically, the United States has already initiated a US-China Trade War which needs further intensification and a follow-on spiral by other Major Nations and ASEAN in particular as the region most grieved by Chinese aggression in South China Sea.

Economically, countries like the United States, Japan, South Korea and Western Europe which have made significantly high FDIs in China should re-locate their companies and industries  from China to South East Asia and India.

In the military field, since China's aggression in South China Sea is predominantly naval and maritime based, the first priority is for Joint Naval Patrols of the type of US Navy FONOPs in South China Sea by Navies of all Major Powers and ASEAN Navies.

In the military field, since the next provocative step by China would be to declare a China-ADIZ over the South China Sea, a declaration of intent by Major Powers that in that eventuality they would be forced to military intervention to lift the China-ADIZ needs urgent declaration.

China is on a Hitlerian path that Hitler adopted in the run-up to Second World War with Nazi military formations on a wild aggressive rampage al over Central Europe without checkmating by the leading Powers of the day

 Do the Major Powers of the 21st Century wish to repeat 20th Century history of  permissiveness against a 'Revisionist Power' and not checkmating China in a Hitlerian-mould  on a wild rampage of aggression from the Western Pacific to icy-heights of India's borders with China Occupied Tibet?

South China Sea is only a symptomatic eruption of the larger disease that afflicts 21st Century China today----domination of the Indo Pacific Region as part of its expansive 'Great China Dream'.
 

THE QUADRILATERAL "QUAD" -AN EXISTENTIAL STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE FOR INDO PACIFIC SECURITY

The Quadrilateral  more commonly designated as the 'QUAD" is a coalescing of four Major Nations of the Indo Pacific comprising the United States, India, Japan and Australia which first conceptually emerged in the first decade of the 21st Century in face of growing China's propensity for aggression and brinkmanship in Asia Pacific. 

The  QUAD slid out of strategic consciousness of the four Major Nations thereafter due to a combination of factors of US strategic distractions in Middle East and Afghanistan and more significantly because the 'China Threat' had still not becoming unmanageable, besides India's hedging strategies not to ruffle China.

The second decade of the21st Century especially after 2012 alarmed Major Powers of the Indo Pacific when China more noticeably switched over to 'Hard Power' strategies in pursuance of Chinese President's 'Great China Dream.' and the enunciation of China's Maritime Strategy 2015 which laid bare China's ambitions of projecting the  new-found  Chinese Navy power "in distant seas".

The maritime ambitions of China with the exponential expansion of Chinese Navy were no longer confined to domination of the South China Sea but to establish a significant naval presence in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean, positioning China as the contending potential Superpower against the United States in a China-crafted new bipolar world order. 

China's underlying intentions on the above centred on challenging the United States dominance in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean challenging the power status quo as the 'Revisionist Power' against the United States but also to subdue India and Japan as Asia's 'Emerged Powers' in contention with China both because of territorial disputes and geopolitical factors centring on Asian leadership.

China's other intention was to challenge the US-Japan military alliance and also nip in the bid the substantially evolving US-India Strategic Partnership.

Japan and India tied to the United States strategically grossly altered the balance of power against China in the Indo Pacific. Australia in the South Pacific with strong strategic links to the United States closed China's growing intrusive presence in the South Pacific island nations.

China attempted to turn the Western naval flank of the United States by seizing military dominance of the South China Sea, potential strangulation of Japan's sea-lanes of survival and establishing an intrusive Chinese Navy presence in the Indian Ocean to coerce India away from the US-India Strategic Partnership.

China's above militarily destabilising potential moves rang alarm bells in Washington belatedly to the China Threat in Indo Pacific and so also in New Delhi, Tokyo and Canberra.

Thus in middle of the present decade the QUAD was more purposefully resurrected  by the four Major Powers of the QUAD with serious discussions to make it more integrated and substantial.

Towards the  above end one lately has witnessed Joint Naval Exercises held bilaterally and multilaterally besides bilateral Joint Army and Air Force Exercises.

There is a wide ranging consensus in Asian Capitals, and moreso in South East Asia that China is not amenable to political  dialogues and adjustments on conflictual issues, a lesson slowly dawning on ASEAN countries most critically affected by Chinese aggression in South China Sea.

The alternative option to manage the growing China Threat is to put into create strong bilateral and multilateral groupings like the QUAD in the Indo Pacific whose potential China cannot ignore.

In 2020, peering into the future, contextually, in relation to the growing and menacing China Threat which could provoke ignition of existing flashpoints in the Indo Pacific, all of China's making, strong imperatives exist to transform the QUAD  into a strong, credible and potent existential strategic counterweight to deter China's propensity and impulses to dominate the Indo Pacific.


 

SOUTH KOREA PERSPECTIVES ON INDO PACIFIC SECURITY NEED RESEST

South Korea in 2020 would be ill-advised to let its historical animosity of Japan's colonial rule till 1945 distort its Indo Pacific security perspectives when geopolitical realities indicate the rise of a military threatening China intent on disrupting regional peace and security.

South Korea as in 1945 or in 1950 or thereafter had to survive in a hostile security environment with three Communist neighbours---China North Korea and Russia.

South Korea's security environment in 2020 has become more turbulent and conflictual largely due to China and North Korea's disruptive policies. Can South Korea be oblivious to the negative effects of these two Communist Nations on South Korean security?

South Korea could withstand Chinese and North Korean aggression propensities because of its security links with the United States and Japan hosting an even larger US Forces Forward Military Presence than that of S0uth Korea.

South Korea's phenomenal economic miracle could take place because of massive Japanese infusion of FDI and technologies. This was a reality recognised by South Korea's first military ruler President Park who prevailed over his countrymen to put animosities aside and let Japanese FDI flow-in.

Has China contributed in any meaningful way to South Korea's security? Has China ever assisted South Korea in its economic miracle?

Has China behaved like a responsible Major Power in the region to restrain its protégé and nuclear proxy North Korea to desist from its provocative stances towards South Korea and its security?

Has China contributed in any way to the materialisation of South Korea's national dream of Korean Reunification?

All the answers to the above questions are negative and the logical next question is as to what draws South Korea to a political outreach to China bypassing and being insensitive to United States and Japan's interests?

While South Korea has a Mutual Security Treaty with the United States and hosts nearly 40,000 US Troops as Forward Military Presence on the Korean Peninsula, some South Korean Presidents in recent years perceptionally steered closer to China giving China a handle to sow divisions and mistrust between South Korea and the United States and with Japan.

Since both Japan and South Korea are tied to United States with respective bilateral Mutual Security Treaties, the natural course of events should have been the evolution of a "United States-Japan-South Korea Strategic Triangle' as an existential counterweight to China's bid to destabilise the Western Pacific to its strategic advantage.

The above evolution could not emerge in my opinion due to South Korea's misgivings about Japan.

Having been posted in Japan on a military diplomatic assignment for nearly four years in the 1980s with concurrent accreditation to South Korea I am deeply convinced that the strategic moment has arrived in 2020 for forging the "United States-Japan-South Korea Strategic Triangle".

South Korea owes a deep debt of honour to the United States which while leading UN Forces retrieved South Korea from Communist China clutches when China and North Korea military forces had reached the beaches of Pusan at the Southern-most tip of South Korea.

General Douglas MacArthur in a legendary military offensive drove back Communist China's massed armies all the way to Yalu River on the borders of China. That US President Truman faltered in not allowing General MacArthur to cross into China, retrospectively, can be stated as leading to the rise of a threatening China even much more in the second decade of the 21st Century.

South Korea needs to recognise that if Communist China could launch a military offensive against United States in South Korea in 1950, with US as the victor of Second World War and then the only nuclear weapons Power in the world, what China can do in 21st Century with modernised and expanded Armed Forces with nuclear stockpiles and ICBMs at their disposal.

South Korea's security historically and geostrategically is linked indivisibly with United States and Japan and certainly not linked with Communist China which has created North Korea as China's nuclear proxy at South Korean capital Seoul's doorstep.

South Korea should actively ponder on reset of its perspectives on Indo Pacific security when in 2020 no space exists for South Korea to adopt independent policy thrusts towards China which are not synchronised with the United States and Japan's stances towards China.

Moreso, now with China heading towards an inevitable looming armed conflict with the United States.