SOUTH CHINA SEA WITNESSES GREATER EUROPEAN NAVIES INVOLVEMENT

South China Sea so far did not engage much attention of European Nations Navies in terms of naval patrols to indicate and establish their presence signalling strategic interest in this crucial maritime expanse.

European apathy in not giving due strategic attention to the South China Sea in their strategic calculus presumably arose from  a combination of three or four factors.

South China Sea till middle of last decade had not assumed the military turbulence that characterises it in 2020 as a result of China's unbridled military aggressiveness and brinkmanship to establish China's sovereignty and dominance over the entire South China Sea.

European Nations found assurance in the belief in past years that the United States military power and might would be able to checkmate China's military adventurism in South China Sea.

European Nations economies were inextricably tied up with their China-Trade and European Nations were loathe to ruffle China by increasing their Naval Patrols in Indian Ocean and particularly extending to South China Sea.

However, in 2020, all the European Nations presumptions on South China Sea security and stability stand proved grievously wrong by China.

China stood emboldened by American hesitation in not resorting to full scale deterrence against China in its predatory forays and aggression South China Sea till US President Trump came along and started confronting China both in South China Sea and China's unilateral exploitation of its trade relations with United States.

China also stood emboldened in defying United States on the South China Sea conscious of the fact that European Nations stood apathetically unresponsive to the growing turbulence in South China Sea.

Resultantly, what developed was that China carried an exponential expansion of a 'blue water' Chinese Navy with its eyes not only on South China Sea but also on Indian Ocean and as afar as the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. It also began military occupation of South China Sea islands belonging to Vietnam and Philippines

While European Nations Navies like those of France and Britain maintained their presence in the Indian Ocean but they had not extended their naval presence to the South China Sea.

As 2020 drew to a close European Nations rattled by China's unrestrained belligerence not only in South China Sea and Indian Ocean but also with Chinese Navy Bases in Gwadur in Pakistan and in Djibouti on the Red Sea coupled with  Chinese interference in geopolitics of Levant & Eastern Mediterranean woke up belatedly to the reality that China was moving into European traditional areas of influence.

Emerging from the above realisations and conscious of the fact that China was no longer a responsible stakeholder in global security and stability, European Nations have recently decided that French, British an Navies would now be sending their Navy warships on patrols to South China Sea.

South East Asian nations particularly Vietnam and Philippines would feel encouraged that not only the United States, Japan, India and Australia stand by them on the South China Sea against Chinese aggression but also that France, Germany and Britain have signalled to China that it is high time that China behaves like a responsible nation and desist from its disruptive strategies especially against smaller neighbours.

 

 

 

UNITED STATES-INDIA STRAEGIC PARTNERSHIP TOUCHES NEW HEIGHTS 2020

The China Threat factor plaguing the security and stability of Indo Pacific Asia's vast landmass and maritime expanses has galvanised United States and India to touch new heights in 2020 in the two decades old US-India Strategic Partnership which evolved at the turn of the 21st Century.

The US-India Strategic Partnership in 2020 without the trappings of a formal military alliance and institutional mechanisms has yet all the mechanisms in the form of a series of " Defence Agreements" signed by both countries enabling and facilitating a wide spectrum of military cooperation and coordination between United States and India and their Armed Forces.

These Defence Agreements range from BECA (Basic Exchange& Cooperation Agreement); LEMOA ( Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement); to COMCASA (Communications Compatibility & Security Agreement) encompassing sharing of Geospatial Intelligence for precision targeting of Indian, use of each others logistics bases and facilities and facilitate United States to provide encrypted communications equipment.

Overarching the above are the Annual 2+2 Meets of the Foreign and Defence Ministers Dialogue for mutual discussion on security issues and defence exchanges cooperation. The Third Annual Dialogue is scheduled for the next week in New Delhi.

This year's Dialogue Meet will be significant as it comes against the backdrop of China's military clashes with India in Eastern Ladakh, South China Sea escalation by China and China's threatening and aggressive provocations against Taiwan.

Significantly, QUAD Initiative hat represents most intensely the new strategic heights that India has touched in US-India Strategic Partnership because it transcends the bilateral US-India security cooperation and extends to Multilateral Naval Cooperation between India and United States Indo Pacific Allies comprising Japan and Australia.

Concluding, suffice it to state, that in view of the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security and Stability, United States and India have drawn closer to forge institutional mechanisms for greater coordination of their strategic convergences posed by China's recent military expansionist impulses.

In terms of perspectives it can be asserted that viewing the QUAD Initiative as a trend-setting indicator that binds India to the United States, Japan and Australia in 2020 inherently carries promises of the emergence of an "Asian NATO' with China intent on military aggrandisement regardless of military consequences which could rebound on its strategic waywardness.

 

 

 

JAPAN'S STRAEGIC CALCULUS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA PRIORITISES VIETNAM AND INDONESIA

South East Asia has traditionally figured high in Japan's strategic calculus for decades due to its geostrategic location astride the South China Sea through which pass Japan's lifelines of economic survival---the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) which traverse the South China Sea.

Not surprisingly therefore that the new Japanese Prime Minister Suga's first maiden foreign policy visit starts with visits to two major countries of South  East Asia----Vietnam and Indonesia.

Vietnam and Indonesia by virtue of their geographical location and spread virtually dominate large swathes of the South China Sea and more significantly when the South China Sea takes an Eastward turn towards Singapore and Straits of Malacca.

Vietnam has been for long subjected to China's military aggression and occupation of Vietnamese Islands in South China Sea, moreso, after Chinese President Xi Jinping assumed power in China. China continues relentlessly with its political and military coercion of Vietnam and military confrontation with Vietnam in South China Sea.

Indonesia till recently was a mute spectator of China's predatory aggression in South China Sea against the Philippines and Vietnam. In recent months China commenced repetition of its predatory moves in South China Sea against Indonesia also. Startled by China's menacing moves into maritime areas of Indonesia, the nation has been forced to approach the United Nations on the threat from China. Indonesia is the largest country in South East Asia with sizeable Armed Forces.

Comparatively, Japan's foreign policy prime focus in South East Asia has been on Vietnam even when United States had not established full diplomatic relations with Vietnam.

Japan-Vietnam relations in 2020 can be stated as being comprehensive encompassing all domains from political, economic and military.

Vietnam's centrality in Japan's South East Asian policies stand that much more amplified with the China Threat manifesting itself menacingly in South China Sea against Vietnam and the China Threat to Japanese Senkaku Islands in East China Sea. Strong strategic convergences exist today between Japan and Vietnam.

Besides sizeable Japanese economic investments in Vietnam there has been a growing trend in Japan-Vietnam security cooperation in terms of Japan aiding Vietnam's military -capacity building to face China Threat. in South China Sea. Japanese Navy on South China Sea naval patrols with US Navy call on Vietnamese Navy major naval base at Cam Ranh Bay.

Japanese PM Suga's forthcoming visit to Vietnam besides signalling Japan's intentions to strategically invest in Vietnam in relation to China Threat to Japan's SLOCs is likely to focus heavily on enhanced  security cooperation in backroom discussions.

Indonesia is also critical for Japan's security for the same reasons as outlined above. Even though Indonesia has yet to face the full fury of the China Threat like Vietnam, recent events may prompt Indonesia to be more open and receptive to security initiatives with Japan and the United States.

One can therefore hope that Japanese Prime Minister Suga's visits to Japan and Indonesia will be productive visits especially in relation to addressing mutual security concerns.

In Conclusion, it can be asserted that South East Asia Region  as a whole figures strongly in strategic convergences of United States and Japan in relation to China Threat. Both the United States and Japan put together have the Will and Capacity to provide South East Asia an existential counterweight against the China Threat.

 

VIETNAM MODEL OF CHECKMATING CHINA DESIRABLE FOR ASEAN STRATEGIC FORMULATIONS

Vietnam significantly stands out as one ASEAN Nation which historically and contemporaneously has withstood and checkmated Chinese aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity despite China's preponderant superiorities in power and military potential.

In the last half a century spanning  both the 20th and 21st Century, Vietnam first repulsed and inflicted heavy casualties on Chinese Regular Military Formations which attacked Vietnam on its Northern Borders with Communist China.

In the last two decades China has persistently indulged in maritime aggression against Vietnam in South China Sea but with limited success despite the fact that till lately the United States, Western European Major Powers and Asian Major Powers like Japan and India were still not actively alive to China's military aggression in South China Sea.

ASEAN Nations stood significantly divided and shirked from outright condemnation of China for its military aggression, military adventurism and coercion against ASEAN Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines.

Major ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia were notable "Fence Sitters" and shirked from forthright condemnation of China till lately when China blatantly intruded aggressively in their maritime domains too. Both have approached the United Nations for intervention.

ASEAN Nations as a regional grouping need to recognise that the United Nations is toothless when it comes to strong actions against China.

Further, ASEAN Nations need to recognise that China in its current mood of military expansionism on its peripheries both on land and on seas is defiant of the United Nations and all International Conventions governing the South China Sea.

So what options are available to ASEAN Nations to checkmate China from wanton aggression in the South China Sea?

ASEAN Nations need to adopt the 'Vietnam Model' as part of its regional strategy of checkmating China before it further endangers security and stability of South East Asia.

Firstly, ASEAN needs to recognise the stark reality that Vietnam recognised decades back that China is not a 'Benign Stakeholder' in ASEAN security and stability. China as a 'Revisionist Power' is overall a 'Disruptionist Power' bent on converting South East Asia and its maritime domains as its strategic backyard under Chinese hegemony.

ASEAN Nations must next recognise that China is not amenable to any peaceful dialogue processes or conflict resolution mechanisms. Vietnam learnt this reality decades back and formulated its China-strategy accordingly.

Vietnam even when US and Western Nations had not got involved actively in checkmating China actively in South China Sea managed and faced China with traditional determined robustness of national character in not submitting tamely to Chinese aggression. Vietnam fought back tenaciously with the resources that it had.

United States . France, UK , Australia, Japan and India impressed with Vietnam's determined face-off against China were drawn to Vietnam's side for reasons of not only global geopolitics but also that Vietnam was the nucleus around which any  Indo Pacific security template could be based.

Vietnam also recognised in the last decade or so that an overbearing China hell-bent on military expansionism at the expense of its smaller and comparatively less powerful nations now needed an "External Strategic Ballast" to deter China.

It is with this realisation that Vietnam incrementally opened itself to the United States, Japan, India and Australia both politically and strategically.

Today Navy Ships from all of the above countries on South China Sea patrols and naval exercises stage through the strategic Vietnam Navy Base of Cam Ranh Bay.

From the above brief recount of Vietnam strategic realisations  emerge lessons for the ASEAN Nations  Group as a whole to craft their China-Strategy, namely:

• ASEAN Nations need a 'United Regional Strategy' to deter China from further predatory adventurism against ASEAN  members sovereignty
• ASEAN as a first step recommended in an earlier Blog must operationalize Joint ASEAN Navies patrols in South China Sea.
• ASEAN Nations must put on fast-track capacity-building programmes for their Navies with special reference to submarines, ASW capabilities and Ant-Ship missiles.
• ASEAN needs to put into place a 'Joint Logistics Exchange Agreements where ASEAN Navies' ships can use each others naval logistics facilities.
• ASEAN can no longer continue to be 'ambivalent' about the 'China Threat' looming over South East Asia. No scope exists for dithering or ''Stand Alone' China Strategies by individual ASEAN Nations

Most significantly, ASEAN Nations have been left with no choice by China but to align themselves with the United States which alone can provide the 'Strategic Ballast' to deter China from DISRUPTING security and stability in the South China Sea and South East Asia as a whole.

Concluding one could leave a thought behind and that is with China once again on a wild rampage in South China Sea impacting South East Asia security, this is an opportune time once again to resurrect the 'Five Power Defence Agreement' which was operative in the 1960s of last Century as an 'ASEAN Defence Agreement'.

Vietnam as the current Chair in ASEAN may like to lead the way.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHINA AND INDIA IN A 'STATE OF WAR" AS INDIA RESISTS CHINESE MILITARY EXPANSIONISM IN EASTERN LADAKH

The Himalayan Borders of India resting on China Occupied Tibet in September 2020 is witnessing China and India locked in a "Sate of War" as India confronts massed Chines Army military formations with matching military strength to oppose China's intended  military expansionism into Indian Territory across the Line of Actual Control (LAC). 

India with extensive Border Defence infrastructural improvements facilitating rapid military responses and logistics capabilities to sustain enhanced troop levels in Eastern Ladakh and on the remainder of LAC with China Occupied Tibet has sent 'Unmistakable Signals of Intent" to China that it will no longer yield to Chinese incremental nibbling attempts to alter the LAC  as per Chinese claims.

India also has signaled to China that it has firm intentions not to scale down its enhanced troop levels even in the harsh winter months that will follow for the next 4-6 months.

China now is in a dilemma as to how to contend with India's unprecedented resolve to indulge in a 'Military Face-off ' with China, without 'loss of face'.

In compulsive Chinese political and military arrogance ever since Chinese Communist Party imposed its authoritarian rule over China, instead of reconciliation and a return to respecting over half a dozen Boundary Peace & Tranquility Agreements" signed since 1993, China has resorted now to dictate India to accept China's November 7 1959 Claim Line in Eastern Ladakh. 

The above claims stand accompanied by China's threats that any Indian negative responses to China's new Claim Line exposes India to a full-blown 'War with China'.

India has firmly rejected the new Claim Lines demanded by China further signaling that India is prepared for all military options including a 'War with China'.

Asia and Indo Pacific Region nations need now to prepare for the eventuality of a full-blown China-India War anytime with China not ceasing its military provocations to alter the LAC to its dictates and India firmly resolved to checkmate China and stop it in its aggressive designs.

China-India War when it occurs would under present geopolitical scenario will inevitably draw-in other Major Powers disgusted with China's military expansionist policies. China would be seriously disadvantaged in such a scenario.

JAPAN'S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICIES CONTINUITY UNDER NEW PRIME MINISTER SUGA ASSURED

Japan's turbulent security environment demands imperatives of "Continuity"  in its foreign and security policies even with the assumption of power by a new Prime Minister Yoshide  Suga recently.

In 2020, the most significant challenge facing Japan is the 'China Threat' which has reared its ugly head in the entire Indo Pacific Region expanse stretching from Japan to India.

Japanese PM Abe who demitted office paving the way for election of PM Suga had established a vast diplomatic network and Strategic Partnerships intended to checkmate China. In tandem, Japan under PM Abe had taken  fast-track up gradation of Japan's Armed Forces, both for defence of Japan and as conventional deterrence against China and North Korea.

Going by reports emanating from Tokyo there is a general consensus amongst policy analysts focussing on Japanese policies that PM Suga would provide that essential 'critical input' of 'continuity' in Japanese foreign and security policy formulations adopted in the last eight years.

PM Suga before assuming office of Prime Minister was for four years outgoing PM Abe's 'Chief Lieutenant' and part of his decision-making loop on foreign and security policies.

In the field of  continuity in Japanese foreign policies the same is assured by PM Suga retaining Foreign Minister Motegi. Foreign Minister Motegi, known for his close links with the US Administration, besides being a Harvard Graduate, would be a valuable asset for the new Japanese Cabinet to provide continuity with the United States -Japan Security Alliance and al so Japan's Special Strategic Partnerships with Australia and India.

 What needs noting is the significant change in the Defence Minister's portfolio where outgoing Japanese PM Abe's younger biological brother, Nobuo Kishi has been appointed as the new Defence Minister.

Defence Minister Kishi besides being attuned and in line with Japan's policies of up gradation of Japanese military build-up and deterrence capabilities against China is also noted for had-line views on development of Japan's 'independent strike capabilities'  !! 

 Japan's participation along with US Navy in South China Sea presence would therefore see no dilution. This would be heartening for South East Asian nations like the Philippines and Vietnam. 

In terms of overall analysis, it can be safely asserted that while a change of guard has taken place in Japan with PM Suga assuming the top slot in Japan's political hierarchy, it is strategically gratifying to note that "Continuity" in Japan's foreign policies and security policies would continue with the vigour of the last eight years or so.

Japan is not only the 'Sheet Anchor' of the United States security template in Western Pacific against China but also the Eastern Anchor along with India as the Western Anchor against the military expansionism of China in the vast Indo Pacific Region expanse.

 

JAPAN'S END OF PRIME MIISTER ABE'S ERA-REFLECTIONS

Japan's longest serving PM Shinzo Abe's resignation on health grounds last week marks the end of an eventful era in terms of game-changing policy initiations pertaining to Japan's national security postures and diplomatic overdrive to add substance to expanding Japan's diplomatic profile befitting a Major Power in Indo Pacific Region.

PM Abe is placed by me in the mould of past Japanese Prime Ministers like Nakasone and Koizumi who similarly played a significant role in beefing up Japan's military capacities and capabilities besides adding value to more than half a century old US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty.

In my estimation Japanese Prime Ministers Nakasone, Koizumi and Shinzo Abe were cast in the true Samurai mould ----determined warriors sensitive to Japan's National Honour and Sovereignty against all threats.

There was nothing apologetic about these three-named Japanese Prime Ministers in enhancing Japan's military and security profiles against evolving threats in Indo Pacific mainly emerging from China. This in the face of binding restrictions of Japan's Peace Constitution.

In the second decade of the 21st Century as the China Threat assumed alarming contours directly threatening  Japan's national security both in East China Sea over Japan's Senkaku Islands illegally claimed by China and China's military  expansionism in the South China Sea threatening Japan's economic and energy lifelines, PM Abe hyperactively but in muted style quietly enhanced the military capability of Japanese Armed Forces to deter China from both political and military coercion of Japan

To supplement the above,PM Abe strengthened further Japan's security ties with the United States and as evidence of his quiet but effective diplomatic skills PM Abe forged a strong personal relationship with US President Trump.

In India PM Abe will be long remembered for upgrading the Japan- India relationship along with Indian PM Narendra Modi to a Global Special Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. The personal chemistry between PM Abe of Japan and Indian PM Modi has put into place a vibrant security-oriented Japan-India relationship with shared and convergent strategic views on Indo Pacific security threats and global threats.

PM Abe also was in the process of effective consultations with Russian President Putin to smoothen the legacy irritants that have impeded strong political relations between Japan and Russia.

Inn effect, the vibrant Japan-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was a notice to China that it had to contend now not only with Japan and India as single-nation entities but as an Indo Pacific or Asian Coalition of Asia's two Major Emerged Powers with shred strategic convergences on the China Threat.

PM Abe leaves behind a strong and enduring legacy for his successor PM Suga in terms of Japan's enhanced diplomatic and military profiles and policies to build upon and provide continuity to Japan's national sensitivities on its National Honour and Sovereignty.

CHINA PERSISTS IN CONFLICT ESCALATION ON INDIA'S HIMALAYAN BORDERS WITH CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

China's propensity to impose its will by use of military force or political coercion on its neighbours whether on disputed land borders or maritime boundaries is a harsh reality for South East Asia nations as manifested in its illegal sovereignty claims over South China Sea.

China was so impelled because South East nations primarily Vietnam and the Philippines were smaller nations as compared to China's brute military might.

China was also so impelled by the fact hat the United States previous Presidents did not call-off China's bullying bluffs against its weaker neighbours.

China in 2020 has now chosen to display the same propensity against India's Himalayan land borders with China Occupied Tibet which China disputes.

Since April 2020 China has embarked on a process of altering the uneasy military confrontationist status quo on India's Eastern Ladakh Borders by the same 'salami-slicing' tactics that it so successfully employed in the South China Sea.

China was in a rude shock when its military expansionism on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) was successfully checkmated by the combat-proven Indian Army. As reflected in an earlier Blog on this BlogSpot, Indian Army with a loss of 20 Bravehearts killed nearly three times 60 Chinese PLA soldiers, and notably without use of fire-arms in hand to hand unarmed combat.

China in its wake at high-level diplomatic and military dialogues in the wake of the above agreed on disengagement on the LAC and de-escalation of military confrontation.

But China as is its wont experienced by both India and South East nations treacherously went back on its commitments and stealthily commenced operations to occupy some dominating features overlooking the LAC which were not on its side. 

India this time reversed roles and Indian Army in swift pre-emptive military operations occupied the China-coveted dominating mountain tops.

In September 2020, India's borders in Ladakh resting on China Occupied Tibet are witnessing intense military confrontation with India having pumped in Indian Army Formations to match Chinese PLA military increase in force levels. 

China miscalculated India's resolve under leadership of PM Narendra Modi and the Indian Army in a high state of War Preparedness no longer starved of funds for the same. Unlike 1962, Indian Air Force stands also deployed on front-line Air Bases signalling intent that India to defend its sovereignty will not hesitate to resort to air warfare

Overall, China-India military confrontation in Eastern Ladakh is in a tinder-box explosive situation as China now is at a loss as to how to' Save Face' after igniting its military misadventure against India.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

INDIA'S DOUBLE MILITARY AND DIGITALSTRIKES AGAINST CHINA'S MILITARY ADVENTURISM AGAINST INDIA SEPTEMBER 2020

India under indomitable leadership of PM Narendra Modi has in September 2020 set an unprecedented example for future Indian Prime Ministers and more importantly for Indo Pacific nations, especially ASEAN countries, that China's military adventurism against its neighbours has not only to be stood upto but also pushed back.

Since April 2020 more noticeably China was engaged in altering the territorial and military status quo along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh to add more depth to military vulnerabilities to its Aksai Chin Highway built through illegally annexed China Occupied Aksai Chin of India's Ladakh Union Territory during Nehruvian era.

The above resulted in the first ever direct military clashes after four decades at Galwan in which Indian Army lost 20 of its Bravehearts including the intrepid Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar but not before killing nearly 50 Chinese PLA soldiers. China first denied so on its losses but TV visuals of Chines tombstones in that area were a giveaway.

In its wake China adopted a duplicitous strategy of diplomatic and military dialogues with India for de-escalation on the borders of China Occupied Tibet on one hand but in tandem resorting to surreptiously 'Salami Slicing' tactics, (reminiscent of its South China Sea military adventurism) to occupy dominating heights in area of Southern Pang gong Tso Lake---this again to change the status quo to their advantage.

Indian Army was alive and prepared to offset China's treachery and on night of August 29/30 pre-empted Chinese PLA military moves by military actions both in occupation of dominating heights and also pushing back Chinese PLA positions entrenched in the buffer zones along the Line of Actual Control.

Some reports also indicate that in the process of the above-said military operations the Indian Army has captured 25-30 Chinese PLA soldiers.

The Indian Government  under PM Narendra  Modi alongside launched a 'digital strike' against China by banning 118 more Chinese  Apps flourishing in India including PUBG. With Indian viewers contributing the bulk of China's revenues from Chinese Apps this latest 'digital strike' was significant.

India thereby signalled to China  that China's duplicitous military adventurism against India which seems to have acquired pace ad momentum under Chinese President Xi Jinping will be firmly met strongly by India adopting a Dual Strategy of Indian Army military face-offs and also economically by hurting China where it hurts most---economic losses accruing from revenue s from Indian markets. 

Contextually, the ASEAN nations most affected by China's military expansionism violating their national sovereignties' and maritime possessions in South China Sea should borrow a leaf from India's current firm resolve to not only face China squarely but also with resolve push China to 'BACKOFF'.

Easier said than done but then ASEAN has to make a beginning by both military firmness and cutting off China's economic supply chains. As reflected in an earlier Paper on this Blog, the first step is Joint Naval Patrols by ASEAN Navies in South China Sea.

China-India military confrontation is there for a long haul and it seems that the Modi Government is prepared for it backed by strong domestic political support of the Indian people at large who seceverely DISTRUST CHINA ever since 1962 stab in the back.

 

 

SOUTH CHINA SEA HEADING TOWARDS AN INEVITABLE UNITED STATE-CHINA ARMED CONFLICT

The South China Sea  is currently hearing incessantly the sounds of 'Drums of War' as China instead of submitting to international diplomatic norms of conflict-resolution is indulging in extreme military  provocations of ballistic missiles firings in this China Occupied Maritime Expanse to shoo  away two US Navy Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups presence in the region.

United States naval presence in the South China Sea along with Navies of US-allied Nations is aimed at ensuring the freedom of movement ad navigation of international shipping against Chinese Navy interference and coercion.

Today the scenario that is emerging in the South China Sea which connects the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean is one of 'Clash of Wills' between the United States and a China not only reluctant but also defiant to let go of its illegal hold over the South China Sea.

'Clash of Wills' between the United States as the sole Superpower in the world and the predominant Power in the Indo Pacific Region and China as the 'Revisionist Power' seeking political and military exit of the United States from the Region inherently carries within it the seeds of armed conflict.

The US-China 'Clash of Wills' witnesses' the ranging of United States asymmetrical military might which has ensured Indo Pacific security and stability for over seven decades with the heady newly-created exponential growing Chinese Military Power impelled by revisionist impulses.

China seems to be oblivious of United States vast asymmetrical superiority in geopolitical and military might of the United States over China. Mere possession by China of a vast, but inferior, nuclear weapons arsenal and missiles arsenal does not endow China with  a fighting chance to prevail militarily over the United Stes or deter it from enforcing the global writ on the illegality of China's untenable hold over the South Chia Sea.

China seems to be in a reckless downslide of military adventurism and expansionism on all its peripheries. China today especially after its criminal callousness in relation to global spared of China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic has been pushed into even greater diplomatic and economic isolation.

The above combined with ethnic genocidal suppression in Xingjian and Tibet, suppression in Hong Kong and Taiwan as a 'critical 'Core Point' heading for explosion is likely to push China into further military adventurism to divert growing domestic political dissent against Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China is therefore likely to whip up emotive Han Nationalism domestic sentiments by military adventurism against Taiwan and in South China Sea. 

Both on Taiwan and in the South China Sea  Chinese military adventurism will run headlong against United States recently awakened political will and resolve  that China needs now to be checkmated before it assumes more threatening contours against the United States national interests and the security of United States Allies and Strategic Partners in the Indo Pacific.

With such a contextual backdrop as outline above, it can be asserted that China is heading towards an inevitable military conflict with the United States in the South China Sea and over Taiwan too.

The South China Sea in the coming months could most likely witness increasing China-United States clashes ranging from incidents at sea to even  United States major military operations against some of China's illegally constructed "Artificial Islands' with military fortifications to establish 'Full Spectrum' military dominance over the South China Sea.

In this ensuing likely 'Clash of Wills' between China and the United States in the South China Sea, irrespective of US Presidential Elections November 2020 outcome, no second guesses are required as to who will prevail.

 

 

INDIA'S ACT EAST POLICY AND THE "QUAD"

India graduated from its 'Look East' policy enunciated in 1990s by India's game-changer Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao to an active 'Act East' policy since 2014 under current Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative which PM Narasimha Rao synchronised with his authorship of India's economic liberalisation which put India on the track of fast unfettered economic growth.

Reflected in my past writings was the reality that while India's 'Look East' policy was an economic imperative, India's 'Act East' policy under PM Narendra Modi was a "strategic imperative" as India widened its strategic horizons under BJP's second Prime Minister. 

India under its 'Act East' policy undertook a well-calibrated strategy of imitating strategic partnerships with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam which were central to security of East Asia or the Western Pacific as an insurance against China's not so benign military rise.

This was in tandem with the growing evolution of the US-India Strategic Partnership which emerged at the turn of the Millennium but matured to substantive proportions only by the second decade of he 21st Century.

The 'QUAD' Concept earlier enunciated by President Brush in the first decade of the 21st Century did not really take-off with United States strategic distractions in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the lingering ambiguities of US policies where 'China Hedging' still persisted.

India therefore quite naturally was also hedging on the QUAD Concept due to its own China Hedging wavering compulsions.

The QUAD Concept was actively revived by the US Trump Administration which soon realised the futility of United States China-policy of giving-in to China on vital issues like the South China Sea.

Political signalling by President Trump of United States hardening of stances on China encouraged the Indian policy establishment to revise its perspectives on the crucial importance of the QUAD Grouping of United States, Japan, India and Australia as an existential counterweight to China's increasing 'Expansionist Impulses'.

India was therefore taking a logical yet graduated step from 'Look East' policy to 'Act East' policy and now as an active participant in the 'QUAD Grouping' of Nations with strategic convergences on the burgeoning China Threat to Indo Pacific Security.

Contextually therefore India in 2020 has not only further reinforced its security relationships with the United States and Japan but this year extended its Strategic Partnership with Australia to include MOUs on security cooperation and more notably 'Logistics Sharing & Access' to each others logistics facilities.

With the above steps including Australia's participation in future EX-MALABAR naval exercises India apparently has become far more integrated in the QUAD Grouping whose overall aim is to jointly ensure the freedom of global commons like the South China Sea which has  seen Chinese aggressive expansionism and checkmating China's growing intrusiveness in the Indian Ocean.

In terms of perspectives, it needs to be observed that the QUAD Grouping as a strong potent Naval Grouping is in India's long rang strategic interests and security which should increasingly find more acceptance within India amongst all right thinking Indians who value India's 'Sovereignty' and 'National Honour as India grapples with China's increasing 'Expansionism' especially in relation to Idia's national interests.

 

 

UNITED STATES NEEDS TO RECOGNISE CHINA'S MILITARY ADVENTURISM SPRINGS FROM CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

The United States in mid-02020 having finally recognised that China is a serious military threat to the United States and is undermining US National Security interests across the entire expanse of the Indo Pacific landmass and  maritime expanses from Japan to Singapore needs also to ask itself a serious question as to what are the underlying strategic and military factors that embolden China to rewrite the established security template put into place by the United States and which is has stood stable and endured for nearly seventy tears.

 

China admittedly has emerged with a sizeable threatening military machine moreso in the first decade of the 21st Century as the United States was bogged-down in its military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. This created a security vacuum in the Western Pacific and coupled with United States 'China Appeasement' policies as an additive China with a cover so provided by US strategic inattentiveness embarked to build a powerful Blue Water Navy which is now rampaging across the Western Pacific Seas and intruding into the Indian Ocean.

 

In mid-2020, China has intensified its military confrontation and clashes across the length of the nearly 4,000 km long Indian Himalayan Border with China Occupied Tibet.

 

In my assessment China's expansionist military adventurism arises from the secure feeling that China is only vulnerable militarily to United States military intervention on its Western Pacific littoral. China perceives that its Western Flanks are secure because of its China Occupied Tibet landmass and the Pakistan collaboration on its contiguity with Pakistan territory of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir belonging to India.

 

China Occupied Tibet has converted the erstwhile Spiritual Kingdom of Tibet into a vast Military Garrison Expanse bristling with massed PLA Army Mechanised Formations. Air Force Bases and Nuclear Weapons and Missiles Complexes.

 

Chin's military adventurism against India and its strategic forays in Greater South West Asia are facilitated by the vast Military Base it has created on the vast open spaces of the Tibetan Plateau under its illegal military occupation.

 

The United States needs to recognise that if the United States wishes to strategically tame and downsize China then China needs to be divested of its illegally occupied China Occupied Tibet.

 

India as the only Major Power with a nearly 4,000 long landmass border with China Occupied Tibet is vitally affected by China Occupied Tibet from where sprouts most of China's military expansionist misadventures against India.

 

It was with the above in view that I peened my latest Paper entitled "TIBET FREEDOMNEEDS TO BE PIVOTAL THRUST OF INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY 20202" Paper No.6653 of23 July 2020 on SAAG website www.southasiaanalysis.org and further reproduced by Eurasia Review.

 

Recommended reading for United States policy and national security establishment and Indo Pacific Capitals.

UNITED STATES FINALLY ADOPTS HARDENED POLICY STANCES ON CHINA'S DEFIANCE OF GLOBAL NORMS

Heartening for Indo Pacific Security environment is that this month the United States has finally though belatedly adopted hardened policy stances on China's continued defiance of global norms of international behaviour expected from a Nation that aspires to emerge as a Superpower.

 

China in the last two months has in a repetition of its past aggressive brinkmanship visible significantly from 2013 onwards has embarked on a resurgence of its aggressive military behaviour extending across the entire Indo Pacific expanse stretching from Japan (East China Sea) through South China Sea (Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia) and intensifying its military confrontation with India more noted in Eastern Ladakh bordering China Occupied Tibet.

 

This latest Chines resurgence when viewed against the backdrop of the China-generated Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic sweeping across Major Power democracies but not touching China on the same scale raises serious questions of Chin's intentions.

 

China either is trying to divert global attention from its criminal culpability in terms of accountability for Wuhan Virus19 outbreak from China's Wuhan Virological Laboratories engaged reputedly in experiment for Biological Warfare weapons or China believes that with the United States and Major Powers  weighed down with fighting the Wuhan Virus Pandemic would be strategically distracted from taking strong counter-responses to China's wild aggressive rampage across the entire Indo Pacific region.

 

China seems to be impelled by both of the above two determinants stated above whereas the latter may now be more predominantly weighing in these last two months.

 

Tangentially, China much against global opinion has passed new Security Legislation on Hong Kong which stood plagued with widespread riots by its population against China's attempts to apply China's sedition laws on Hong Kong. China can now be expected to brutally suppress all struggles for democracy in Hong Kong by its residents who at least culturally are quite distinct from Mainland Chinese.

 

China in these two months  has visibly and starkly demonstrated that in the pursuit of Chines President Xi Jinping's 'Great China Dream' it is not ready to submit to any international conventions, agreements or be stopped by the United States or any other Major Powers aligning with the United States .

 

The United States long permissive of China's strategic delinquencies for both geopolitical and strategic reasons seems to have been pushed into a corner by China.

 

As of this month, it is clearly becoming visible that United States is now going to seriously "Push Back" on China's unrestrained relentless rampage across Indo Pacific Region. The United States seems to have weighed the costs of a 'Reset' of its China Policy and is now engaged in initiating various political, economic and military measures to impose costs on China where it hurts most.

 

The United States seems also to be encouraged by the widespread  backlash against China in all Indo Pacific and European capitals on both counts of China's irresponsible and provocative actions of firstly not putting the international community on notice of Pandemic Outbreak from Wuhan and also in its cover indulging in a resurgence of its military aggression and brinkmanship all over Indo Pacific..

 

China has by its such misdemeanours has generated a "SEVERE STRATEGIC DISTRUST" in world capitals against itself..

 

The United States taking advantage of widespread global revulsion on China's on-going military aggression has hardened its policy stances against China. United States has withdrawn Special Status accorded to Hong Kong, imposing sanctions on Chinese officials connected with Hong Kong suppression, intensified its FONOPS in South China Sea, asserted forcefully that China is in illegal control and occupation of Philippines and Vietnam Islands in South Chia Sea and severely castigated China for intensifying military confrontation with India in Eastern Ladakh.

 

In coming weeks and months we can expect the United States to further tighten the screws on China in a bid to checkmate its aggressive transgression against Indo Pacific Region nations.

 

China seems unlikely to submit to United States pressures and therein lies the inevitability of the long-predicted military showdown of the United States with an Expansionist China.

 

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India’s National Security Strategy 2020 Inescapable Imperatives-- “China Containment”

 

China presented itself as India’s ‘Implacable Enemy’ when a China Occupied Tibet obliterating Independent Tibet as a centuries old buffer state in 1950,  China imposed  its borders with India on India’s Himalayan Watershed  raising irredentist claims against India on centuries-old established geographical frontiers.

China in 2020 with its military adventurism in Eastern Ladakh sequentially and relentlessly following seven decades of similar military provocations violating multiple China-India Border Agreements, emboldened by “China Appeasement’ and ‘Risk Aversion’ policies of past Indian Governments leaves no political or strategic space for India other than adopting a firm policy of “China Containment”.

China foisted a militarily adventurist borders dispute on India which China has perpetuated for 70 years defying all reasonable solutions. Chi has deliberately impeded solution of China Occupied Tibet-India Himalayan Border Dispute as any demarcation resulting from satisfactory solution would rob China of leverages against India of political and military coercion.

Fast forwarding history of China-India conflictual relations and border turbulences inflicted by China ‘Slow Creep’ of nibbling away at Indian Line of Actual Control on pretext of ‘Perceptional Differences” on alignment of the demarcated Line of Actual Control, interspersed with the Sino-India War 1062 and the 1967, 1975 and 1986.87 major China-India militany standoffs the picture in Mid-May 2020 is “Grim”.

China –India Military Confrontation in 2020, as I have reflected in my Book ‘China-India Military Confrontation: 21st Century Perspectives’ in 2015 and my various Papers and Lectures thereafter is that China-India Military Confrontation is no longer a mere “Boundary Dispute” but has graduated into the realm of Asia’s most pronounced and defining geopolitical rivalries with long term strategic implications.

Geopolitical rivalries draw-in other Major Powers with stakes in Asian Security and more pointedly in the new geopolitical construct of Indo Pacific, and especially when Asia’s two Major Powers are militarily jostling each other on their contested borders with massed military strengths.

Contemporaneously, it needs to be highlighted that in the backdrop of the current intensifying China-India Military Confrontation in 2020 is marked by two major factors—one geopolitical, and the other military.

Geopolitically, China in 2020 is geopolitically weakly placed, both regionally and globally. This arises from global concerns of Major Powers that China is on a wild aggressive rampage across Indo Pacific reminiscent of Hitler’s unchecked rampage across Europe on eve of World War II in late 1930s.

The military factor that pervades and rattles China in 2020 is that especially in the period 2014-20 under current Indian PM Narendra Modi, India has fast-tracked its border defence infrastructure in Eastern Ladakh in terms of roads, bridges and forward airfields in close vicinity of Indian Territory of Aksai Chin militarily usurped by China in 1050s to build the Chinese Highway through it linking China Occupied Tibet with China Occupied Xingjian. China perceives that India’s developed border infrastructure makes both the Aksai Chin Highway and China’s flagship Pakistan project of CPEC Highway passing through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

Additionally, India in the last six years India has started closing in the asymmetrical differentials in its military power with China in conventional military power. India has achieved credible nuclear deterrence with China with Beijing under India’s missiles ranges.

it is against this geopolitical and military backdrop that the current Galwan Military Clashes and Standoff needs to be viewed and analysed.

India after 70 years has finally shed its ‘Political Timidity’ in facing China’s relentless mix of political and military coercion on the Line of Control, China’s relentless offensive to downsize India and to impede India’s emergence as an Emerged Power.

In Mid-2020, India’s relations with China can be characterised as one of intense “Strategic Distrust” of China, and to use the Chinese phrase applied by China to its friendship with its ‘Iron Brother’-Pakistan’ that India’s ‘Strategic Distrust’ of China is as “High as the Himalayas and as Deep as the Indian Ocean”.

Seventy years of ‘China Appeasement’ and ‘Risk Aversion’ policies of past Indian Governments has resulted in India reaching a ‘Tipping Point’ in post Mid-May 2020 Eastern Ladakh military clashes inflicted by PLA Chinese Army resulting in PM Modi assertively declaring that “Era of Expansionism is Over”

 This assertion was made by PM Modi on his visit to HQ 14 Corps and troops of Ladakh Garrison facing China’s massed Army formations in China Occupied Tibet. The Indian Prime Minister without naming China but abundantly and unmistakeably aimed this expression at China made in context of Galwan clashes.

 The assertion ‘Era of Expansionism is Over’ and that India’s Sovereignty will be defended at every inch was putting China on notice of India’s intent that henceforth in relation to Chinese military misadventures against India on the Line of Actual Control will be militarily contested with matching Indian military force.

The ‘Expansionism’ reference was very apt and timely because China in the period 2004-14 of Congress Government had nibbled away at Indian Territory in Ladakh to expand its military presence in Eastern Ladakh contested space on Line of Control claimed by China as per their perceptions.

The Indian Prime Mistier has given full control to Indian Army Commanders along India-China Occupied Tibet Borders to deal with PLA Chinese Army military provocations, intrusions and transgressions displaying an unprecedented political trust in India’s Military Commanders facing Chinese Armed Forces might.

Where does India go from here in terms of its National Security Strategy in face of China’s intensifying military escalation along the Line of Control and its stubbornness in not agreeing to disengage and deescalate and respect the military status quo ante as it existed in Eastern Ladakh as it existed on May 05 2020 when China first clashed with Indian Army in Galwan Area and which led to two weeks later of the May 15 clashes in which Indian Army lost 20 soldiers lives and China had 43 soldiers killed by ferocity of Indian Army troops foiling the Chinese Army attempts to enlarge its presence in Galwan Valley.

At the time of this writing, it is being reported that China has reluctantly started making token withdrawals from the clash-points in Eastern Ladakh but not from the Pangong Lake area.

 China under contemporary geopolitical pressures may seemingly be giving up its stubbornness of not restoring status quo ante by token and partial disengagement and de-escalation. But that should only be deemed as a politically expedient step but not a credible change in China’s implacable hostility or cessation of its military adventurism and brinkmanship in times to come.

The Indian Republic has to guard against unnecessary hype with such developments as stated above or celebrate any forthcoming Chinese disengagement of troops in Eastern Ladakh or de-escalation.

The Indian Prime Minister with the contextual backdrop of May-July 20202 Chinese military adventurism should finally recognise and concede that China despite his political outreaches to the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan Informal Summit 2017 and Chennai Informal Summit 2019 is lathe to give up Chinese military adventurism on India’s Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

Objective analysis by even impassioned political observers would concede that in 2020 viewing the geopolitical dimensions that now dominate China-India Military Confrontation, no political or strategic space exists for India to hope that “Expansionist China” would be amenable to any Conflict Resolution or Confidence Building Measures.

India in 2020 has now seriously deliberate and consider that contextually in terms of Indian National Security Strategy India has only one prudent policy option to undertake, and that is one of “China Containment”

India’s ‘China Containment” will obviously be frowned upon in Indian policy establishment and diplomatic circles but wisdom should dawn on them that historically “Revisionist Powers” bent on imposing an “Expansionist Template” need to be checked by “Containment Strategies” by all Powers---Major or Small-= - in unison before Indo Pacific security and stability is irretrievably fractured.

India cannot be a back-bencher and shy away from “China Containment” when China seemingly and demonstrably by its military adventurism is inviting such a reaction.

India’s “China Containment” strategy would necessarily be multi-pronged—political, economic and military and architectured with long term perspectives in view and more importantly unmindful of and independent of any politically expedient Chinese policy reach- outs to wean away India from India’s adoption of the Indo Pacific Security Template by the multilateral “QUAD” Initiative.

Detailed recommendations for “China Containment” strategy that India should put it motion would be the subject of analysis of a separate Paper.

Concluding, it needs to be asserted that with a case for “China Containment” policy by India having been established above, despite the opposition of India’s ‘China Apologists’ and ‘;Non Alignment Gladiators” of yore, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the onerous task of finally dispensing India’s decades old ‘China Appeasement’ and ‘Risk Aversion’ policies of past Congress Governments. China’s Expansionism can only be curtailed by headlong push-back with a National Security Strategy of “China Containment.

 

 

 

 

 

The Indian Republic has to put in motion the process of a devising a new National Security Strategy. Inherent in such a new Strategic Blueprint would be a realisation that the ‘China Threat’ is LIVE and unlikely to fade away. It also entails incorporating in such a new Strategy the inescapable strategic imperative of “China Containment”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA SQUARELY FACES CHINA IN MILITARY CLASHES IN EASTERN LADAKH BORDERS WITH CHINA OCCUPIED TIBET

China in mid-May 2020 indulged in military escalation at multiple points on India's borders with China Occupied Tibet in Eastern Ladakh Sector in tandem with its escalation in South  China Sea and East China Sea against Japan.

 

Unlike past border confrontations, China's aggression against India was squarely met by military force by India. This resulted in loss of 20 Indian soldiers lives but China paid the price in terms of 43 or more Chinese soldiers dead in clashes. China was initially hesitant to concede loss of Chinese soldiers lives in military clashes with India.

 

Significantly and symbolically, this is a tipping point in the nature and dimensions of India's responses to Chinese military provocations generated from massed Chinese military forces deployed in China Occupied Tibet.

 

Today, India reportedly has reinforced its military deployments in Ladakh and along the entire stretch of the 4,000 km long India-China Occupied Tibet Himalayan Borders mostly lying in high-altitudes of over 12,000 feet.

 

India seems to be signalling to China with near-matching military deployments opposite Chinese military forces  that it intends to "squarely" face any Chinese attempts to alter the status-quo of the existing Line of Actual Control (LAC) anywhere on the India-China-Occupied Borders.

 

China in the last 70 years has consistently refused to settle the territorial boundary dispute with India and has kept tensions alive to perpetuate its attempted political and military coercion of India.

 

India in 2020 in terms of its political will of its leadership and India's war-preparedness to meet the China Threat is unlike the 1962 Sino-Indian Military Conflict where a military debacle was foisted on the proud and highly professional Indian Army due to failure of war-preparedness by political leadership of India's first PM Jawaharlal Nehru with his starry-eyed illusionary attachment to Communist China's emergence and its military intentions.

 

Significantly, it has to be observed that China in keeping with its strategy employed all over the Indo Pacific once again demonstrated its propensity to resort to military aggression and conflict on territorial disputes and also renege on past Agreements signed with India---at least half a dozen since 1996--- to maintain peace and tranquillity on the borders.

 

China may have got away by bullying its way and coercing militarily its smaller ASEAN neighbours in the South China Sea territorial disputes but in case of India the picture is different.

 

India today is a Sub-Continental Emerged Power with high economic growth rates and  modern Indian Armed Forces.

 

India under PM Modi in the last six years has been seriously engaged in reducing the military differentials with China and also fast-tracking its development of defence infrastructure in its border regions with China Occupied Tibet.

 

The above has rattled China along with India's growing geopolitical stature in the world coupled with a substantive US-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

 

The India-China Occupied Border territorial dispute perpetuated  by China, going by present portents, has all the ingredients to emerge as the most combustible military flashpoints in Indo Pacific Asia and in which the Major Powers of the Indo Pacific would not have the luxury of passive spectators.

 

 

 

 

INDO PACIFIC SECURITY AND US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2020

The United States will soon be engulfed in US Presidential Elections and campaign politics and it needs to be emphasised that the US political contenders adopt a bipartisan approach to the challenge of maintaining security and stability in the Indo Pacific Region.

Peace and stability in the Indo Pacific stands threatened by China on all its peripheries. China is also engaged in an unremitting US-China Trade War which prompts China to generate added turbulence in the region,

China can be expected to target US audiences by digital means to ensure that incumbent US President Trump is not elected for a second term as US President.

China's targeting of President Trump emerges from a visceral hatred of President Trump for his hard-line policies against China extending from Trade Wars to intensifying US Navy FONOPS in South China Sea and co-opting India as a major partners of United States in Indo Pacific security and the QUAD which existentially will apply brakes to China's unbridled aggression in South China Sea.

The main challenge to disturb or disrupt Indo Pacific security contextually would therefore emanate from China which could possibly attempt to exploit any political divisiveness that at times erupts in heated electioneering campaigns. 

China perceptively has already commenced the process by creating heated turbulence in the South China Sea and the Northern Borders of India with China Occupied Tibet.

In both of the above strategic locations, the United States in 2020 has legitimate security stakes by virtue of its commitments to East Asian security or the security of the Western Pacific wherein the United States is a 'Resident Power' by virtue of its security treaties.

India matters high in 2020 United States geopolitical calculus and relevant to United States strategic template for Indo Pacific Security. This is anathema for China which views this strategic development as upsetting the balance of power against China.

Both Republican Party and Democratic Party Presidents in the past have stood committed to the larger issue of South China Sea security as security of the "Global Commons' and with varying nuances challenged China's aggressive misadventures in this critical maritime expanse.

Similarly, India has received bipartisan support of Republican and Democratic Party Presidents in terms of building up India as a Major Global Player and pivotal partner of United States in contributing towards Indo Pacific Security.

Contextually, therefore, in the coming US Presidential Elections campaigns South China Sea security and India's pivotal significance as the Free World's existential counterweight against China need to be politically be respected by both US political parties.

Concluding, it needs to be highlighted that China will attempt an intrusive digital influencing strategy in coming US Presidential Elections. China will make an all-out effort to sway election results away from President Trump's bid for a second term.

China in mid-2020 has emerged as a potent threat to United States security and the security of its Allies and Strategic Partners.  The China Threat to United States is even more than the Former Soviet Union was ever was.

The United States at all levels has to be therefore be vigilant to China's interference in US domestic policies in the run-up to Presidential Elections 2020.

UNITED STATES CHINA POLICY THRUST-"CHINA CONTAINMENT" NOT "CONGAGEMENT

The United States has faltered grievously in its China-policy thrusts for the last two decades by dithering on facing China squarely when all indicators portended that China was in a calibrated strategy under-mining United States vital national security interests in the Indo Pacific Region.

The United States ignoring strategic imperatives for 'China-Containment' strategies shied away in arresting China's growing military adventurism on all its peripheries in the Indo Pacific.

The United States over-weighed by its 'China Hedging Strategies' and 'Risk Aversion Strategies' gave a flawed veneer to its faltering thrust on China by terming that the United States will adopt a policy thrust of "Congagement" with US strategists espousing the 'mantra' of 'Trust but Verify' and that the United States would make a cocktail of its China-policy thrust by blending part 'Containment' and part 'Engagement'.

The United States China-policy therefore can be asserted to be one of fudging the China Threat and its potent potential to challenge US predominance in the Indo Pacific.

Contextually, therefore in 2020, what stands proven is that United States China-policy of the last two decades with its misperceived notions that China would change with time into a benign power has miserably failed.

China has not only refused to change its  legacy aggressive stripes but gone headlong into a wild military aggression pattern all over the Indo Pacific combined with political, economic and military coercion against virtually all its neighbours excepting Pakistan. 

In the above process, he United States till lately suffered a serious dent in US image in Asian countries raising doubts that the United States was the guarantor and Nett provider of Indo Pacific security against China bent on claiming for itself "Strategic Frontiers" as opposed to well defined historical "Geographical Frontiers".

In 2020, when China now feels militarily empowered to challenge United States traditional predominance and hold on Indo Pacific Security, can the United States afford to still pursue its misperceived "Congagement" China-policy thrust? 

Surely, the United States cannot afford to pursue his China-policy thrust any longer as what would then be at stake is the United States continued embedment in Indo Pacific with all its attendant national security implications of a crumbled "Outer Perimeter of Defence" of US Homeland.

Post China Wuhan Virus19 Pandemic China today stands politically isolated with even Asian fence-sitters no longer enamoured by China.

This is an opportune moment for the United States in the Indo Pacific to adopt an active 'China Containment" policy thrust and galvanise Indo Pacific nations behind its leadership to send an unequivocal signal to China that Indo Pacific Nations with the United States in the lead will henceforth "PUSHBACK" China's military adventurism and all political, economic and military coercion.






 

SOUTH CHINA SEA-GLOBAL OPTIONS TO FORCE CHINA TO VACATE ILLRGAL OCCUPATION

China has been in illegal military occupation of islands, reefs and shoals in the South China Sea belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines for virtually two decades. In recent weeks its aggressive propensities to enlarge its hold over the South China Sea has now touched Indonesia and Malaysia.

China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea were dismissed in 2016 by the International Hague Tribunal which ruled China's sovereignty claims over the entire South China Sea based on dubious Pre-BC maps as null and void and without legal basis.

China thereafter has not only defied The Hague Tribunals ruling but redoubled its aggressive enlargement of control over South China Sea by construction of artificial islands which are heavily fortified with missiles, radars, naval jetties and airstrips capable of operating Fighter Planes of the Chinese Air Force.

Contextually, arising from the above, the following logical deductions emerge:

• China has no intention to vacate its illegal military occupation of South China Sea maritime expanse. Its intentions are not benign. It seeks further expansion of its hold over the South China Sea.
• Chia will not honour any international awards ruling against its illegal military occupation nor open to any Conflict-Resolution processes initiated globally or regionally.
• China's long term intention is to transform the South China Sea into an 'Inland Sea of China' denying global access to maritime global commons and also the airspace above it.
• China considers the South China Sea as its "Core Interest" and will not shirk from armed conflict to maintain its illegal hold and dominance over the South China Sea expanse.

Since China in pursuance of its expansionist impulses can hardly be expected to retreat or resile from its illegal occupation and sovereignty claims over the South China Sea, the Major Powers have to prevail over the global community, as a first step to adopt measures 'short of war' to make China's continued hold over the South China Sea "untenable".

Short of war, and war should be the last step, Major Powers  and global community as a united entity should devise multiple options against  Chinese aggression to comprehensively incorporate  political, economic, and China-containment Naval options without further delay. 

Politically, China needs to be "isolated" in all global and regional forums till such time China visibly and by demonstrated actions projects its earnestness to 'adhere to a rule-based international order respecting international laws and conventions'.

Politically, it is high time the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council strongly send a message to China that it cannot continue as a Permanent Member of UNSC when it wantonly indulges in endangering regional and global peace and stability.

Economically, and this is where China will be hurt most and damaged, is to impose economics sanctions against China. China's supply chains from all over the world which sustain China's economy and tangentially its military expansion need to be disrupted.

Economically, the United States has already initiated a US-China Trade War which needs further intensification and a follow-on spiral by other Major Nations and ASEAN in particular as the region most grieved by Chinese aggression in South China Sea.

Economically, countries like the United States, Japan, South Korea and Western Europe which have made significantly high FDIs in China should re-locate their companies and industries  from China to South East Asia and India.

In the military field, since China's aggression in South China Sea is predominantly naval and maritime based, the first priority is for Joint Naval Patrols of the type of US Navy FONOPs in South China Sea by Navies of all Major Powers and ASEAN Navies.

In the military field, since the next provocative step by China would be to declare a China-ADIZ over the South China Sea, a declaration of intent by Major Powers that in that eventuality they would be forced to military intervention to lift the China-ADIZ needs urgent declaration.

China is on a Hitlerian path that Hitler adopted in the run-up to Second World War with Nazi military formations on a wild aggressive rampage al over Central Europe without checkmating by the leading Powers of the day

 Do the Major Powers of the 21st Century wish to repeat 20th Century history of  permissiveness against a 'Revisionist Power' and not checkmating China in a Hitlerian-mould  on a wild rampage of aggression from the Western Pacific to icy-heights of India's borders with China Occupied Tibet?

South China Sea is only a symptomatic eruption of the larger disease that afflicts 21st Century China today----domination of the Indo Pacific Region as part of its expansive 'Great China Dream'.