Vietnam significantly stands out as one ASEAN Nation which historically and contemporaneously has withstood and checkmated Chinese aggression against its sovereignty and territorial integrity despite China's preponderant superiorities in power and military potential.
In the last half a century spanning both the 20th and 21st Century, Vietnam first repulsed and inflicted heavy casualties on Chinese Regular Military Formations which attacked Vietnam on its Northern Borders with Communist China.
In the last two decades China has persistently indulged in maritime aggression against Vietnam in South China Sea but with limited success despite the fact that till lately the United States, Western European Major Powers and Asian Major Powers like Japan and India were still not actively alive to China's military aggression in South China Sea.
ASEAN Nations stood significantly divided and shirked from outright condemnation of China for its military aggression, military adventurism and coercion against ASEAN Nations like Vietnam and the Philippines.
Major ASEAN Nations like Indonesia and Malaysia were notable "Fence Sitters" and shirked from forthright condemnation of China till lately when China blatantly intruded aggressively in their maritime domains too. Both have approached the United Nations for intervention.
ASEAN Nations as a regional grouping need to recognise that the United Nations is toothless when it comes to strong actions against China.
Further, ASEAN Nations need to recognise that China in its current mood of military expansionism on its peripheries both on land and on seas is defiant of the United Nations and all International Conventions governing the South China Sea.
So what options are available to ASEAN Nations to checkmate China from wanton aggression in the South China Sea?
ASEAN Nations need to adopt the 'Vietnam Model' as part of its regional strategy of checkmating China before it further endangers security and stability of South East Asia.
Firstly, ASEAN needs to recognise the stark reality that Vietnam recognised decades back that China is not a 'Benign Stakeholder' in ASEAN security and stability. China as a 'Revisionist Power' is overall a 'Disruptionist Power' bent on converting South East Asia and its maritime domains as its strategic backyard under Chinese hegemony.
ASEAN Nations must next recognise that China is not amenable to any peaceful dialogue processes or conflict resolution mechanisms. Vietnam learnt this reality decades back and formulated its China-strategy accordingly.
Vietnam even when US and Western Nations had not got involved actively in checkmating China actively in South China Sea managed and faced China with traditional determined robustness of national character in not submitting tamely to Chinese aggression. Vietnam fought back tenaciously with the resources that it had.
United States . France, UK , Australia, Japan and India impressed with Vietnam's determined face-off against China were drawn to Vietnam's side for reasons of not only global geopolitics but also that Vietnam was the nucleus around which any Indo Pacific security template could be based.
Vietnam also recognised in the last decade or so that an overbearing China hell-bent on military expansionism at the expense of its smaller and comparatively less powerful nations now needed an "External Strategic Ballast" to deter China.
It is with this realisation that Vietnam incrementally opened itself to the United States, Japan, India and Australia both politically and strategically.
Today Navy Ships from all of the above countries on South China Sea patrols and naval exercises stage through the strategic Vietnam Navy Base of Cam Ranh Bay.
From the above brief recount of Vietnam strategic realisations emerge lessons for the ASEAN Nations Group as a whole to craft their China-Strategy, namely:
- ASEAN Nations need a 'United Regional Strategy' to deter China from further predatory adventurism against ASEAN members sovereignty
- ASEAN as a first step recommended in an earlier Blog must operationalize Joint ASEAN Navies patrols in South China Sea.
- ASEAN Nations must put on fast-track capacity-building programmes for their Navies with special reference to submarines, ASW capabilities and Ant-Ship missiles.
- ASEAN needs to put into place a 'Joint Logistics Exchange Agreements where ASEAN Navies' ships can use each others naval logistics facilities.
- ASEAN can no longer continue to be 'ambivalent' about the 'China Threat' looming over South East Asia. No scope exists for dithering or ''Stand Alone' China Strategies by individual ASEAN Nations
Most significantly, ASEAN Nations have been left with no choice by China but to align themselves with the United States which alone can provide the 'Strategic Ballast' to deter China from DISRUPTING security and stability in the South China Sea and South East Asia as a whole.
Concluding one could leave a thought behind and that is with China once again on a wild rampage in South China Sea impacting South East Asia security, this is an opportune time once again to resurrect the 'Five Power Defence Agreement' which was operative in the 1960s of last Century as an 'ASEAN Defence Agreement'.
Vietnam as the current Chair in ASEAN may like to lead the way.
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