UNITED STATES-INDIA 2+2 MINISTERIAL DIALOGUE NEW DELHI NOVEMBER 2023 : CAN INDIA MEASURE UP TO AMERICAM EXPECTATIONS?

The 5th US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue due to start on November 10, 2023, acquires significant geopolitical contours when analyzed in context of two ongoing major armed conflicts going on in Ukraine and Gaza in which the United States is involved in a major way.

The United States would expect from India as its "Key Strategic Partner" to adopt more "Key, Notable & Substantive" geopolitical and security postures contributive to US national security interests in the Middle East conflict contingencies. 

Can India with its preferred fixations on multipolarity as a foreign policy precept measure up to United States expectations?

Initially, it needs to be highlighted that the very basis of evolution of the now so-titled and so -evolved over two decades   US-India Global Comprehensive Stategic Partnership is shared strategic convergences on major global issues threatening global and regional security.

Major ongoing armed conflicts in Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza War threaten both regional and global security and peace. This strategic reality is not open to differing interpretations.  

Unlike in Ukraine Invasion by Russia, the United States has reacted with major military deployments of US Forces as pre-emptive measures by Iran to escalate and enlarge the war on Israel. The United States is intensely committed to security of Israel.

Iran has merged as a major actor against the United States not only with its nuclear weapons arsenal but also weaponizing Islamist Armed Militias like Hamas ruling the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah operating in Southern Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen.

These Iran -controlled Armed Militias are heavily armed and in possession of Rockets arsenals. Hamas and Hezbollah plague Israel security with a Two Front Threat. They also undermine US security interests in Middle East in favor of Iran.

The lurking danger in November 2023 is that Iran may be sucked into escalating this War against Israel and United States, as prospects increase of Hamas being liquidated by Israel.

In the above eventuality, India faces serious policy predicaments which can best be summed-up in the following questions: (1) Can India strategically afford to adopt a neutral stand in an escalated war in which United States could be sucked-in? (2) Is India ready to dispense with its fairly good relationship with Iran drawn into a War with United States and Israel? (3) Would India be in a position to withstand the geopolitical and economic costs of adopting a neutral stance in the event of a Middle East War?

India has unlike the Ukraine Invasion, surprisingly but realistically, taken a clear stand by PM Modi asserting that "India stands with Israel". India has not adopted an ambiguous stand when it came to Israel when contrasted with that of Ukraine.

Therefore, if India has asserted that it stands with Israe and the United State is committed to Isreal's security and existence at all costs, it is logical that India's policy adoptions in event of war in Middle East would be congruent with that of the United States "Short of committing troops on the ground".

The United States on the eve of the Meet has officially declared that it is for India to make its decisions.

Hopefully, India would be able to rise up to United States expectations by fulfilling provisions of all the US-India Defence Arrangements signed like BECA, COMCASA and more notably LEMOA. 

 

 

RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC DIMINUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON CHINA'S MILITARY BRINKMANSHIP IN INDO PACIFIC REGION 2023

Russia's strategic diminution in the wake of its stalemated ill-advised invasion of Ukraine can be analyzed as robbing China of much of China's fire-spitting aggressive brinkmanship in Indo Pacific, noticeably evident with Chinese Foreign Minister's dash to Washington and overtures to US for restoration of military ties.

Till last month, all roads led to Beijing with a flurry of visits by top US Biden Administration officials including Secretary of State Blinken and Commerce Secretary to China.

This trend now seems to have been reversed with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi dash to Washington for talks with Secretary of State Blinken and even a brief meet with President Biden.

China has advanced reasons for above as preparatory moves for possible Chinese President Xi Jinping's participation in APEC Summit in San Francisco in November 2023.

Couple of years back, in my South Asia Analysis Papers, I had analyzed how China and Russia as a concretized Russia-China Axis contributed to secure their respective 'rear flanks' in confrontation with United States & Allies.

Firmly believe that in 2023 and beyond, with Russia's strategic diminution and economic sluggishness due to Ukraine war-costs, Russia like yesteryears, stands enfeebled to provide that 'rear-flank' security cover to China's military confrontations with US &Allies/Strategic Partners in Indo Pacific Region, as visible in end-2023.

Resulting from the above, what are China's options in Indo Pacific?

China cannot afford to "lose face" in Indo Pacific by a climbdown in its aggressive confrontation with the United States both for external reasons and more significantly for domestic political reasons.

So how does China script its strategic stances in 2024 and beyond?

In my assessment, China will adopt a two-pronged strategy "copying" United States current China-strategy of operating on two planes. 

China at the global level would like to be perceived as United States 'strategic-equal' by striking reasonable strategic postures with United States and at on a second lower plane resorting to intensification of its military confrontation for 'optical photo-ops' against Japan, India and the Philippines.

Contextually, the above China-perceived strategy is likely to "misfire" when in US strategic circles the majority debate suggest that United States is now capable of "Combatting Two and a Half Military Threats".

This includes dealing with two major threats of Russia and China and a possible military contingency elsewhere.

China much to its regret, has also to factor-in the reality that within the United States there persists bipartisan support for strong and firm US 'Hard Line' policies on China.

The above is conclusively reflected in China-policy assertions made by US Presidential Probables, both Democratic and Republican.

Hence, US Presidential Election year offers no solace to China in terms of US China-policy. China can be expected, however, to resort to Hybrid Warfare strategies within USA as it did in last presidential elections.

China's past historical record illustrates that China will not be deterred by any of the above factors working against it. 

China with a 'Compulsive Reflex Syndrome' can be expected to plunge the Indo Pacific Region in 2024 into more strategic disruptions by aggressive predatory moves!!!

UNITED STATES MUST GUARD AGAINST STRATEGIC NAIIVETY IN SUCCUMBING TO CHINA'S OVERTURES TO RE-ESTABLISH MILITARY RELATIONS

Contextually, when the United States is not geopolitically or strategically beleaguered either by Russia's invasion of Ukraine or the Hamas-Israel War on Gaza, or, even by China's continued predatory moves in South China Sea, it would be the height of United States strategic naivety to succumb to China's overtures to re-establish military relations.

China is currently engaged in such overtures holding out the carrot of an Xi-Biden Meet on the sidelines of the forthcoming APEC Meet in San Francisco.

US President Biden unexpectedly opted for even a more strident 'Hard Line' policies on China than his predecessor President Trump and put China on notice that strong bi-partisan support exists within United States against China for constantly undermining US national security interests.

It was on the strength of strong bipartisan support within United States on Hard-Line policies on China that encouraged Indo Pacific nations to team-up with United States against a commonly perceived China Threat.

Then what is prompting the United States to lose the 'Perceptional War' against China by seemingly cozying-up to China when it is China that is more beleaguered geopolitically arising from its unconditional support of Russia over Ukraine?

In 2023, a larger part of the world except Islamic countries are lined up in support of the United States than behind Russia or China.

The United States would be utterly strategically naive if its policy establishment assesses that by restoring military relations with China, the United States may be able to wean China away from its Russian embrace.

The United States must recognize that in terms of United States long-term national security interests it is 'strategically wise' for United States to wean away Russia from China's strategic embrace than persisting in US flawed policy-aims of weaning away China from Russia.

The United States must seriously debate the perceptional strategic losses that would accrue to United States on QUAD and other nations in Indo Pacific of any perceptional shifts to "rehabilitate" China in its policy formulations at this stage.

Pointed out repeatedly in my writings on US-China relations for two decades was a singular warning that United States cannot adopt a 'two-level' China-policy, At the first level raising the scepter of a China Threat amongst Indo Pacific countries to join the US-led posse against China and concurrently at the second level cozying-up to China because of its misperceived and flawed Russia-policy.

For Indo Pacific nations, it is China that is a more live and potent threat than Russia. This applies more significantly to Japan and India.

The United States has to strategically choose between 'respecting the strategic sensitivities' of the main pillars of its Indo Pacific Security Edifice or succumbing in strategic naivety to Chinese overtures whose end-aim is to drive wedges between United States and Japan and India.

China is a 'sworn enemy 'of the United States as much as it is of Japan and India. The United States in 2023 or beyond has no strategic bandwidth to re-indulge in China Hedging policies of yester years. 

 America 'take your pick'!!

 

PHILIPPINES IN CHINA'S MILITARY CROSSHAIRS BECAUSE OF UNITED STATES AND INDIA

China lately has intensified its military coercion of the Philippines in and around islands/ reefs claimed by it in Philippines territorial waters in South China Sea after years of feigned friendship with the Philippines.

Departing from his predecessor President Duterte's pro-China policy, incumbent President Ferdinand Marcos Jr Ferdinand on assuming presidency in June 2022 has tried to balance relations with China but with a noticeable tilt towards the United States.

President Marcos Jr in initial stages of his presidency made a visit to China hoping that China would keep the peace with the Philippines. However, he has made two trips to the United States in an effort to add substance to the existing US-Philippines Mutual Security Treaty which had over the years become rusty due to past Presidents.

President Marcos Jr seeking security guarantees from United States was impelled by China's deliberate actions to prevent re-supply of its garrisons on shoals in South China Sea by aggressive cations of Chinese Coast Guard ships.

China's latest provocation against the Philippines has been the release of its New Map which extends China's Nine -Dash Line imposed by it in South China sea even further to include additional control over Philippines maritime sovereignty.

It needs to be recalled that based on Philippines complaint, the International Hague Tribunal had dismissed China's sovereignty claims over the South China Sea. But China continues to defy the ruling and has embarked on heightened provocations in South China Sea.

The Philippines now finds itself more pointedly in China's military crosshairs because President Marcos Jr has doubled the access of US Military Forces to nine Filipino military bases, including some in the North facing Taiwan. 

Additionally, during present tenure of President Marcos Jr large scale Joint Military Exercises between US Forces and Philippines Armed Forces have taken place in the Philippines.

While the avowed aim of these Joint US-Philippines Military Exercises was said to dwell on 'Conter-insurgency operations', it should be apparent that the main aim is to develop interoperability to meet perceived threat from China.

US President Biden recently committed the United States to militarily assist the Philippines in event of any aggression against its sovereignty.

India like the Philippines has been the victim of Chinese aggression on its land borders with China Occupied Tibet, cartographic aggression in the same New Maps of China and China's more than intrusive presence in the Indian Ocean.

The Philippines finds itself additionally in China's military crosshairs because of India's political and military reachout to Philippines arising from India's 'Act East' policy.

India's security ties with the Philippines have intensified with India having agreed to supply the Philippines with 3x Batteries of the dreaded BRAHMOS Cruise Missiles, posting of a Defence Attache in Manila and the Philippines expressing interest in additional Brahmos Missiles Batteries along with other defence hardware.

The significance of India supplying the Philippines with BRAHMOS Missiles has not been lost on China and hence its annoyance manifested in increased provocative military actions against the Philippines.

In Conclusion, it needs to be stressed that while no formal declared synergy has taken place between the United States and India to jointly indulge in military 'capacity-building' of the Philippines, but the coincidence is there. 

And, that coincidence of United States and India is not lost on China and hence the Philippines finds itself in intensified military crosshairs of China.

CHINA'S POLITICAL AND MILITARY COERCIVE CAPABILITIES AGAINST INDIA VISIBLY LIMITED IN 2023

 China noted since 1949 as an aggressive proponent of political and military coercion against its peripheral neighbors has visibly found that in 2023 that India under Modi Regime since 2014 is no longer a 'political or military pushover' State.

In this 2014-23 period, India has exorcised the 'Ghosts of 1962 Military Debacle' then imposed by timid political leadership. India in this same period went into an overdrive to reduce its military asymmetries with China on its Northern Himalayan Borders with China Occupied Tibet.

India's Galwan Military Standoff in 2020 preceded by Dokalam Military Standoff of 2017 were 'Turning Points' in the decades of India cowing down timidly under Chinese military aggression and coercion.

During Galwan 2020 in Ladakh, India mobilized and deployed more than 50,000 troops with tanks, APCs and heavy artillery. All these massive deployments in a High- Altitude terrain stood backed by considerable IAF offensive air power and air transport mobility. 

India's robust political and military responses to China's creeping aggression and coercion now empowered by rapid developing of strategic roads network and Forward Bases for Indian Air Force have lowered the threshold for Chinese military coercion.

Geopolitically, India carries added significant 'geopolitical weightage' in the strategic calculi of world capitals. China, in tandem, stands devalued geopolitically, due to its aggression in South China Sea and coercive policies against Japan and ASEAN countries.

China's attempts to destabilize the Indo Pacific has cost it heavily in terms of perceptions that it is a 'Major Threat' in the region.

Resultantly, United States deference to China's strategic sensitivities stands diminished and India increasingly sought by United States as an existential counterweight to an uncontrollable China. 

It would therefore be evident that India with robust political leadership unwilling to buckle against China's coercive capabilities enabled by military modernization and upgradation has considerably limited China's propensities of political and military coercion against India.

Concluding, what needs to be stressed is that while India in 2023 may have "limited" China's coercive capabilities against India, 'complete neutralization' of China's coercive capabilities can only take place when India develops capabilities to conduct "Offensive Operations" in China Occupied Tibet.

That should be India's military over-riding aim!!!